The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Change your graph to 5 year GBP/therm follows the same trend. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1174560/average-monthly-gas-prices-uk/ Pricing forecast remains the same for the UK.
Just to name a few talking points to consider when qualifying your argument:
- Gas prices declined from their high since August 2022.
- The energy price cap set by ofgem in that period: https://heatable.co.uk/boiler-advice/history-of-ofgems-energy-price-cap
- And current price cap: https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-price-cap
- Forecast of price cap: https://moneyweek.com/personal-finance/605440/will-energy-prices-go-down
- In terms of wholesale gas prices: US IEA say the natural gas spot price is expected to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023 but will stabilise.
- British Gas retail residential remained broadly flat but small business customers have increased by 15% year on year.
- The average forecast of 800M sustainable operating profit quoted for Retail and Optimisation excludes Infrastructure.
@thanglan - I am not sure of your reasons for investing here but its a safe bet long term than trading daily share price movements. As you say its hard to pick the top and bottom. I don't think bankboy would be buying in even at suppressed share price levels unless he felt it would achieve another meteoric rise in share price. Yes the derivatives market contributes to the market gambling attitude and the casino of the city is all about short term money making. They have clients to please. But they will be back with the same attitude year on year to make more money. Similarly I bought into this stock at 35p and I have sold and rebought again along the way when I learn more of the future prospects of the company. I never intend to get bottom or top and very rarely achieve that. In principle its no different though.
This stock is currently trading above its book value. What it suggests is the market values the company higher than what is stated on its balance sheet. Investors believe that the company's future earnings, growth potential, brand value, market share, or other intangible assets contribute significantly to its overall worth. These factors are not reflected in the book value, which mainly includes tangible assets and liabilities only. Its often seen as having strong fundamentals and growth prospects, attracting investors seeking future potential rather than current asset value. Fundamentals for dividend income look very strong. All the major brokers have reiterated a share price at least another 25%-50% above these levels.
Also have a read of what JP Morgan said yesterday. Good luck with your investment
Unfortunately Kenmare's guidance for primary zircon 45,000-50,000 tonnes and continues to decline year-on-year due to lower recoveries.
"Primary zircon production was 51,100 tonnes in 2023, a 13% decrease compared to 2022 (58,400 tonnes). This was the product of reduced HMC processed and lower recoveries."
Could this change however when the move is completed to Nataka? But by this time prices may have stabilised or declined from historic highs.
"We see scope for further cash return through share buyback, supported by further improvements that we anticipate in Centrica's net cash position to over £3.0bn by FY24," said Citi.
Citi also noted that market participants' main concern was on its underlying net cash position. However, it highlighted that these concerns were potentially "misplaced", as it said any adjustment for customer money should also be accompanied by receivables owed to Centrica - a net addition to the cash position.
More from Jefferies here:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1036507/centrica-gets-downgrade-as-jefferies-suggests-peak-reached-1036507.html
But note they have raised SSE to a buy rating. SSE trades at 10 times future earnings whereas CNA only 4. I'll let you make of that what you will
@mjallen - I wouldn't read too much into the daily share price. Its only a small volume of the float exchanged by day traders. Market cap in Jul-2022 was £4.7B and Market cap is currently £7.2B in Feb-2024. In this time they have bought roughly £0.72B of shares. During the buyback period a lower share price ensures more shares can be obtained for the money allotted and therefore better for investors.
The recently published case of Antuzis v DJ Houghton Catching Services Ltd, confirmed the principle that directors entering into contracts in bad faith can be held personally liable.
In Antuzis, it was held that the director and sole member of the company was liable for inducing the company’s breaches of contract where they were knowingly in breach of fiduciary or personal duties to the company.
The case of Antuzis looks at whether a director will be held personally liable if they are “acting bona fide within the scope of his authority”. In Antuzis, the discussion focussed upon “the officer’s conduct and intention in relation to his duties towards the company” rather than “towards the third party that provides the focus of the ‘bona fide’ enquiry”. As such the director should make sure he fully understands not only his statutory duties but what documents such as any shareholders agreement and articles of association set out.
Honestly at that point in time I was just hoping for my money back.
Apologies forgot to include the past tense in my statement. My aged eyes fail me! I am a LTH so I understand the pain experienced previously. I share greeno's view and look forward to the long term future income KMR will generate for us shareholders.
Do those shares matter now. The following statement from the 2023 results suggest they no longer count.
"Reflecting the above and a reduced share count due to share repurchases over the year, adjusted basic earnings per share (EPS) was 33.4p (2022: 34.9p). Statutory EPS was 70.6p (2022: 13.3p loss)."
Existing one continues until july well after interms. I expect we will learn more at this stage whether they will continue. My money is on them continuing unless future trading expectations decline which i am not expecting them to for the foreseeable future
Thanks @Jindy for your posting but the article says "is expected to report a dip in full-year profit". This shouldn't come as a surprise. This expected decline in profit was reported last financial year and again during the interims over 6 months ago. Its prudent to point out that total 2022 Group Operating profit excluding Spirit Energy disposed assets was 2.8B. Despite the bleak news proactiveinvestors portrays Spirit Energy managed to triple profits to £245m during the 2022 which contributed to parent firm Centrica's record takings.
Also it seems a lot on here only attribute the British Gas brand when they invest in Centrica. As per the proactive arcticle:
"AJ Bell noted it may be Centrica’s array of other businesses which are worth keeping an eye on.
This includes “its oil and gas exploration and production operations in the North Sea, stakes in British nuclear power plants, energy trading, renewable power generation, energy storage and onsite energy generation via solar cells and heat pumps”.
Such presence in the wholesale market has enabled the firm to withstand pressures from the rapid jump in energy prices better than rivals, the analysts added."
Lets see what tomorrows actual news on 2023 results brings rather than try and predict what it might be. I for one am half glass full. Best of luck for your investment here