RE: From The Times....30 Jul 2020 12:24
Misses the point completely ... CV19 has not washed through society yet.
The best number to predict from in my view is San Marino, small population, but 33,000 is a reasonable sample .....
.. with a death rate of 0.125% and the highest reported on the John Hopkins site.
That figure suggests up to 80,000 UK deaths and 400,000 US deaths and seems about right given previous pandemics that have washed through society .. could be more, could be less ....
.. but the unique feature of CV19 compared to Sars, lies with its ability to spread before symptoms appear.
That makes the virus difficult to contain, so with regret it is going to wash through society, and not much we can do about it outside of better medicine to include vaccination.
That said, after Spanish Flu, the world took off into the roaring 20s