Member Info for TechyRob

I remember something similar to this happening last time there was an OO. Ultimately, AIUI, you will only know how many excess shares you will be granted once the final requests are in and the excess shares are split amongst investors. There’s certainly no way to tell now so I don’t know what AJ bell are on about.

Got to be. Also with dumping ~20% of their most recent conversion in one go so they must be almost out now. I imagine we’ll get their final conversion for the outstanding £500k any day now as I can only see the SP heading one way from here - at least in the short term.

Tbf I’ve never heard Mike put a number on his optimism and confidence before. “9.5/10” - he’s stuck his neck out on that one.

All looks very positive.

Colins - sorry I was replying to gaf11, I should have specified.

Whilst I agree it’s a gamble (of course it is - every investment is in affect a risk/reward consideration), do you mind if I ask what’s changed from your bullish views a couple of weeks ago?

“I think strong buy. At 3p soon. Ill be in for more just hoping after that tomco rns we have a good chance of this proving its self. As there is a lot of companies involved now and trialing this masr. Looking forward with fingers and toes crossed”

From my perspective we’re fully funded now and things are looking really positive compared to 2 weeks back..?

IMO anyone selling more than 1/30th of their holding will be unlikely to recoup these shares via the excess facility. Take into account it’s not unusual for us to have a 10% spread, anyone selling at under 3p is unlikely to be able to buy back less than 3p should they be unsuccessful in applying for excess shares. So maybe it’s much of a muchness, but in the event of no news before the OO date I would expect to see the SP settling at 2.9p/3p rather than 2.7p.

Seems to me there is very marginal upside, if any, to this approach and you’d be gutted if we get positive news on any ongoing developments in the meantime.

Ric - completely your call. You’re correct there is potential for the price to fall with Bergen and IG. The opposite is also true now we’re fully funded and we have multiple opportunities working in parallel that are all positively progressing (see my post a couple of days back).

If we could predict short term SP movements we’d all be rich right? I would instead invite you to think about what you consider the QFI opportunities and likelihood of success to be. If you think the SP is a good bet at this price then jump in, otherwise hold on and risk never entering a position. There’s no right answer. Good luck!

During the last Open Offer the timescales HL worked to were as follows;
- Instruction for requesting shares need to be sent to HL by noon 24th Sept 2019
- Funds to buy the requested shares needed to be available in our accounts by noon 25th Sept 2019
- HL removed funds from our accounts to complete the transaction at noon 26th Sept 2019

This corresponded to the issued Circular at the time of;
- 27th September - latest time and date for receipt of completed application forms and payment.

HL therefore previously set their first deadline date approximately 3 days before the companies deadline for receipt of application forms and instructions needed to be in.

Assuming HL work to the same timescales this time around; as the company deadline for completed applications and payment is the 22nd March 2021, it could be that our deadline for providing instructions to HL to take up our entitlements is as late as the 19th March 2021.

Of course keep an eye on your emails as we don’t know for sure, but we might not hear anything for a few more days yet.

MacF1 I can see why you would think that but that isn’t the case. Theoretically we could release an infinite amount of shares at the current SP and whilst it devalues your % share in the business, the value of the overall business rises (in this case the MC should in theory increase by £6m - the amount raised).

If we find that the II’s have taken the full allocation overnight I actually expect to see a rise in the SP tomorrow, as we’d be fully funded plus a strong demonstration of confidence from new investors who can only make a profit with a significant SP increase from this point. If the offer isn’t fully taken up I imagine we’ll drop.

Just remember that the board has a lot of options open to themselves too, so their interests are greatly aligned with success here. After years of limited director buying it would stink a bit if they were to start gobbling up shares right before significant developments were made.

As it stands;
- MK has just under 1m shares as well as 6m share options
- JM has just under 4m shares as well as 11.5m options

Remember also they will also be awarded a flurry of further share options upon hitting performance milestones, as well as being positioned as chair and CEO of what could be a massive MC company, should our potential be realised. This itself would completely transform their professional reputation and remuneration package.

All in all, if the SP was to ever hit even 50p - which should we achieve any partial success is highly conservative - MK and JM will be very wealthy men indeed. I’m not concerned with their commitment in this regard.

Very crude but assuming they took up 10% of the trading volume since they received their 37m shares at the end of Dec that should put them out of shares about now (and with a very healthy profit, mind).

Fortune - ironically an ‘unfortunate’ autocorrect there

Realistic - first confirmation I heard of re: bidding for Eskom tender is the following interview with Fortunate in October;

https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5f8d7182c4d0076f2b940ed4

If you go to 18:30 he says “we are participating in project development opportunities including bidding into opportunities like the Eskom Tender”. There’s probably a number of other examples of fortunate talking around it.

I doubt they would forward sell as they are contractually prohibited from doing so but more importantly they didn’t demonstrate this behaviour for the previous £2m so I doubt they’ll do it now over a poxy £500k.

I agree the sooner we get good news the lower the dilution - I was disagreeing with your comment about Bergen not wanting to lend more. I’m not sure I fully understand your point about the 3.5% limit as they aren’t borrowing close to that figure.

Either way, short term major news or not, it’s a small cash injection that even if converted at a massive discount won’t make much different to our holdings %. It gives MK and the team some wiggle room to accelerate bioMSAR activities which I suspect will work out in our favour.

£500k is very little in the grand scheme of things. MK could have taken a further £2m from them but instead chose to limit this to £500k. There’s confidence to be taken from that approach and he’s clearly not interested in just taking the pressure off himself. Also the increased cash burn can only be a result of more activities kicking off, which is surely a good thing.

This all lines up well to suggest things are going well and we are expecting a news flow to increase the SP by mid-year that will provide a better platform for further funding, otherwise we’d not have concluded the Bergen deal and rejected a further £1.5m at this stage. Looking forward to a positive H1.

Biggest issues aircraft face is keeping the total weight of their aircraft to a minimum. This will always be a v. Tough sell due to the lower calorific value per unit weight of MSAR to other (dirtier) fuels. This is why power gen is an absolute no brainier of a market for us..

Sailinger - agree. But if we’re in agreement that commercial contracts for those 3 opportunities would see a SP over £3, what SP would be rational by the end of the year when we’re completed on some trials and underway with the others? 30p would suggest the market see’s a 10% chance of these trials being successful and leading to commercial deals. That to me seems rational, and personally still a conservative price point.

Either way, can’t imagine we’ll be at these prices for long. As I said when the MSC JDA was signed the company was transformed at that point, I don’t think the markets quite got it yet personally.

Sailinger yes I agree we’ve a long way to go yet. That’s why I said “ If we land all our opportunities” that’s where I expect us to be

I appreciate it’s highly subjective and everyone will come to their own targets, but as per the Edison reports (https://wp-quadrise-fuels-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2020/03/09154522/GB00B11DDB67.pdf);

MSC alone have 580 ships and if the trials are successful they state they are hoping to use our fuel across their whole fleet, but for simplicity say 375 ships would run on MSAR as this is a figure assessed in the Edison note.

Using the most conservative licensing mode - that would see an EBITDA of $83.7m per annum, so say £60m per annum. That alone would see an EPS of 5.5p. This EPS would also be considerably higher from Utah and Morroco but I’ve not got reference material for this to hand right now.

So for it to be £3 we wouldn’t need particularly imaginative P/E ratios to get there, which are highly likely given we’re a tech / licensing / green company with very little overheads and frankly massive scalability with a huge market that would be after our fuel should we bag a world leader like MSC.

All my own interpretation but that’s why I said if we bagged those 3 opportunities I expect we’d be closer to £3 than 30p.

If we land all our opportunities at Utah, Morocco and MSC we’d be closer to £3 than 30p.