Member Info for TechyRob

Should get an RNS of the open offer results in the next couple of hours then we can put all this speculation to bed. Shares you’ve received should be in your account and available to trade as of tomorrow.

I would hope not.. we don’t seemingly get any market consideration for the BE business so any delay here should in theory be non-impactful. A silver lining to the ridiculously undervalued position we find ourselves in..?

“The way the SP is falling”.. Take a look at the 3 or 6 month price graphs.

Since we’ve announced our MSC tie up, navigated Covid successfully with Morocco, launched BioMSAR and secured the medium term financial future of the company by bringing on II’s (oversubscribed too..) I think the price has shown nothing but steady and strong growth.

I would go as far as to say this has been the most impressive 6 month period we have had in MK at the helm. I believe the SP growth we have had throughout this period reflects this and there’s no reason to believe the trend won’t continue should we continue to deliver on our clearly outlined short and medium term objectives. If you stress over the short term weekly price swings then you’ve got to consider if AIM stock investment is the right move for you.

Sprinterminter - In theory yes. Any short term SP movements are irrelevant however for us long term holders who’ve been waiting a long time to be in the position we are now, with multiple opportunities tantalisingly close to being secured. Many of us won’t be selling until commercialisation however (at the earliest) so none of this will matter if we don’t deliver on our near term objectives.

A gentle reminder of what news were expecting to receive within the next 3 months;

- Started off our Morocco commercial trials
- Completed Utah trials
- Defined and publicised detailed plans for MSC trial
- Started fuel production for the huge volumes of MSAR required for the MSC trial (currently unknown provider)
- We will also know which additional shippers are joining the MSC trial as was suggested in the Q&A from the previous presentation
- Should have or be close to getting results from BioMSAR on medium speed engines which will potentially extend into the MSC / Marine trials

Thought this above would be a nice bump from my previous post to take us through to the weekend. Have a good one all!

Had a flick through FAR and saw nothing of substance just pages of pumping and unsubstantiated claims of imminent doubling / tripling of the SP. Dangerous environment for PI’s that don’t know what they’re doing.

Saying that I’m sitting on a sizeable loss here so I’m no Warren Buffett. Still, I’m confident it’ll come good eventually and soon - stick to the fundamentally sound companies and business cases and you can’t go too wrong.

I’d bet my bottom dollar the full £1m is raised. I know myself and a few other (very small holders relative to most - not on the forums) have applied for about 3% of the shares on offer so I’d be gobsmacked if early next week we find the full amount wasn’t raised. Selfishly I’d be feeling pretty smug however as I’d have just made my beer money for a year!

Who knows Gil - we won’t have any commercial contracts by then still so the SP will remain entirely sentiment based and therefore could be anything. All going well though we should have;

- Results from initial Morocco industrial trial
- Started off our Morocco commercial trials
- Completed Utah trials
- Defined and publicised detailed plans for MSC trial
- Started fuel production for the huge volumes of MSAR required for the MSC trial (currently unknown provider)
- We will also know which additional shippers are joining the MSC trial as was suggested in the Q&A from the previous presentation
- Should have or be close to getting results from BioMSAR on medium speed engines which will potentially extend into the MSC / Marine trials

So plenty of news updates expected over the next 3 months. I’m sure there are other events and sub-events of the milestones above that I’ve missed. Regarding SP as I said it remains speculative - but if even half of the above events go to plan by end of Q2 we’ll be in a significantly more robust position than we are now and you’d expect the market to recognise that.

Corns to not even take your entitlement confuses me - why not at least sell your entitled amount now at 3.3p knowing you’ll get the shares in your account next week at 20% lower..?

Absence of any news?! We’ve possibly just had the most exciting 3 month period in the last 4 or so years. Only 2 weeks ago we had news of oversubscribed II’s coming on board eliminating any funding concerns, last week we learnt who they are, next week we’ll learn of OO outcomes, and within the next weeks and months we have a flurry of updates due as per Gil’s summary a couple of days back, as he claimed we’re probably due about 1 RNS a week the rate we’re going.

Any sellers acting due to “slow news flow” I really think need to get their head checked

I agree - it’s a really exciting time right now with lots of news and updates due over a relatively short timeframe.

Gil if it’s not too much trouble I don’t think it would be a wasted effort for you to copy and paste that summary once a week or so as we enter the coming months. It’s really great to see a regular snapshot of where we are and what updates are due and I don’t think it’s get much more succinct than what you posted!

Just to follow - having your 1/30 allocation of shares not in a SIPP or ISA is unlikely to cause you any tax concerns unless you literally have millions of shares. Even if you had say a 50k share allocation (which would mean your holding is 1.5m shares), as in the UK we have £12.3k tax allowance before CGT is due, the SP would have to be about 25p before you’d need to pay any tax at all on your additional shares if they weren’t protected from tax. And if you ever did finding yourself needing to pay tax on them - well frankly it’s a lovely problem to have.

John - you need to talk to your SIPP provider. In some cases they will allow you to uptake your allocation in a separate account outside your SIPP (such as a standard account that won’t get any tax benefits), other providers might require you to do as you say below so as to not exceed your SIPP limit.

The only way to be sure is to contact them. Sorry I can’t be of more help.

They will take over 1m shares in a single trade for 3.9p. Bodes well for sentiment starting the week off. Maybe a few large buys brewing in the background?

SP predictions are complete guess work and anyone suggesting we’re going to be at a certain SP by a certain date is speculating and knows no more than you or I.

This is completely different to scenario analysis however, which is a completely reasonable -
critical, even - activity that investors should be undertaking. If you don’t know what the size of the prize is then how can you determine if the investment or risk level is right for you?

Fact is if we were to secure a deal to supply MSC’s ships with MSAR, we’d be looking at a SP many multiples of where we are now (as per ydays discussion). Nobody on here predict if or when that will happen, but if it does then the SP takes off. As it also does should OCP pen a deal, or Greenfield, or any other shipper / client we have on the line. So as per the discussions we have a gauge of the size of the prize, but it’s up to the individual to determine our likelihood of securing it.

No surprise that I’m personally on the extremely bullish side of the table.

That’s why I said apply your own P/E ratio Gil. Whichever way you spin it if we ever have 500 ships using MSAR and an EBITDA of $330m then we’ve made it - the SP will be many multiples of £1.

Timetime - very basically an EBITDA of $330m would approximately correlate to an earnings per share (EPS) of about 25p.

You would then multiply the EPS by a price to earnings (P/E) ratio you seem sufficient to arrive a Share Price. As a technology / licensing company P/E ratios of 50+ would be argued by some to be at the lower end of what you’d expect, especially considering other untapped HFO markets and the potential to expand further. So yeah - highly highly lucrative should it come off.

Yes I agree probably about right with Utah. I think the big SP swing would come though with commercial contacts with OCP in Q3/Q4. If we have Utah on point and MSC trials are developing nicely by then, I think we’ll seriously be challenging the £1 region in not surpassing it.

Remember at this point we’d then have;
- a self sustaining income
- a proven commercial model in play
- most importantly, a world still reliant on $135b annual heavy fuel oil sales of which we could easily replace, making both users and producers tons of money along the way and all the while making probably one of the biggest overnight climate change contributions in history - pending uptake, of course ;-).

Luke - they won’t be attached to this deal, otherwise it would have had to be disclosed in the RNS. Those subscription shares and warrants have expiration dates of 01/10/2022 (same date mine expire from when I supported the last OO) - so it looks like they also bought into the previous fund raise.

Note also they bought 70.8million shares, so the 0.7m warrants they own wouldn’t have been any incentive at all in this instance (represents less than 1% of their holding). They for sure held these instruments prior to their II raise participation.

I was contemplating this myself indigo. My only conclusion is that something has to be different in this instance - which for me is the fact that Greenfield are producing a low sulphur bitumin product, which would therefore be a low sulphur MSAR product once we’ve emulsified it.

TomCo recently stated in their proactive interview in February they’re targeting bunker fuel for shipping;

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/224475/tomco-energy-tapping-into-market-for-low-sulphur-fuel-oil-224475.html

It can’t be beyond the realms of possibility that there’s a three-way tie up going on with QFI / TomCo & Freepoint here? The latter being quiet just now waiting for the feasibility to be passed in the coming weeks. If proven successful, freepoint could finance a massive scale up operation and facilitate commoditisation in the bunker fuels market? Apologies if this has been speculated before.

Great way to buy shares by getting warrants as well - nice work - it’s just a shame the price has fallen since then!

Just remember also that last time the OO wasn’t fully subscribed which is why everybody got the total of what they requested. This time I suspect it will be fully subscribed so the excess will be split between investors and we won’t know how many we all have until the OO is closed. I can’t image investors will get many more than they’re entitled to ie 1/30th of their holding.