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There is a few things happening driving this share price much higher.
1. It was oversold in the first place due to a large number of short positions and general sentiment
2. Shorters are closing their positions. Usually at the open in the first hour you get a decent uplift followed by a little retracement. This has been a continuous rise all day which suggests upward pressure
3. Technicals suggest a price of 600p from here and then it will stabilise. That's why shorters are closing and no one is selling.
4. News on the banking sector has calmed down. There was some noise surrounding Deutsche Bank, but that has dissipated somewhat.
This stock will move to 600-650 just on flattening of future rate expectations. I wouldn’t say results have been particularly great, but as a growth stock, forward interest rate expectations are just as important as it reprices future cash flows.
If we start to see interest rates globally peak then expect this to come back quite quickly to where we were a few weeks ago.
ETFs originally weren't allowed because they were synthetically replicated, i.e. track the movement of the futures price. That was seen as far too risky given the nature of Crytocurrency. Therefore, only funds were allowed as they physically held Bitcoin.
However, since these ETFs have now been approved and launched by the SEC (Head of SEC is Gary Gensler, who is a MIT Professor and crypto buff), Grayscale can now list via the ETF, which makes liquidity better for the investor, and will inevitably attract more assets.
The Nasdaq listing will mean that this is available to US investors/funds/ETFs to buy, as a lot of them can only buy US domiciled/listed shares.
Buying UK situs/Non-US shares can pose a lot of tax issues for US investors (individuals and funds/ETFs), so they tend to be avoided. An ADR will open Argo up to these investors.
You would think that Aspenwood, but sometimes they don't read the small print. I was invested in a smaller company a few years ago, and when they applied to become a full listing in the UK, they failed due to not meeting the accounting requirements. They look for a certain period of time that their accounts go back to, but I'm really not sure if the NASDAQ has anything similar or what they might be.
From my experience of this, smaller companies can sometimes find it difficult to list in the UK if they don't have certain accounting records going back for a period of time. Unsure of the requirements of NASDAQ but there might be listing parameters that haven't been met, or need a bit more investigation before giving the go ahead. I would say 6 weeks doesn't sound like enough time, especially if there are concerns, with 3-4 months more likely.
I think the interesting thing about companies like Argo is that they can potentially switch to any form of mining in the future with the kind of processing power that they have. So although they might mine Bitcoin at the moment, if in the future there was a globally more recognized cryptocurrency and Bitcoin fell away, then it would make owning something like Argo future-proof.
Mining in essence is just getting paid to secure the network and process transactions, and so theoretically can be done in any currency. There's not many industries where you can just move to the best new product and have everything in place to do so.
Cryptocurrency is now here to stay in one form or another, and to have the infrastructure in place for the future should be the aim. The companies and native currencies will eventually undergo a period of consolidation, being bought up by each other. It's almost certain that the big Tech players in the future will want to own a piece of this pie, much like they do with the cloud, so Argo and others are well placed to benefit.
Noticed something quite interesting on the BTC price last night. In one hour it went from 49.5 to 47 and bottomed out there with a sharp reversal. I remember seeing this with in Oil in 2020, a bearish sentiment that was particularly violent, and from there recovered really well.
Nothing is guaranteed, but this kind of reversal is quite positive in my mind, especially if there are less shorts around, and with Tesla results pending tonight.
Because of the large spread, it trades in 2.5p/5p chunks, and it is a function of the spread widening/narrowing throughout due to lack of liquidity rather than any movement in the price.
Very good sign that BTC has bounced straight back to $53k. Shows there is good upward pressure to get back to the bullish trend. Even if it stays relatively sideways from here, it's important that it keeps that trend in tact.
This looks like a key level to watch. It acted as strong support from the 18th April through to yesterday, with the price bouncing off it several times. If BTC can break back through that again, then that will be a very good sign.
We have a very supportive fed, with loose monetary policy, but there are now some question marks in my mind on the fiscal side of things, with perhaps a smaller fiscal boost than the 1.9trn than was promised, and now Biden planning to raise taxes on the market.
This is all after a strong bull run since the start of November, which BTC has been apart of, and at the speculative end of things. However, BTC from memory reacted well during March 2020, and acted as a safe haven, so there are some unique characteristics of crypto that the market is yet to fully understand.
The only thing I am sure of is that the volatility will continue, but I expect the 45k and then 30k marks in BTC to be significant support levels.
I think the sentiment around bitcoin and it's prospects for the future are something that is more relevant than the short term price of BTC. It doesn't really effect ARB if the price of Bitcoin crashes for a week and then recovers straight away. It's if BTC decides to go much lower for longer, which is when it will significantly impact revenues and the bottom line.
Currently, there is a thinking that Bitcoin could have a bit of a pause/even go bearish, which will obviously have an impact on the price of Argo. Nothing really to do with Argo as a credit, but just the correlation between BTC and ARB.
We are at a bit of a critical juncture with BTC in terms of price, and the next week could be an important one.
Price moves tend to go in waves due to various reasons. Trends are then formed by looking at the highs/lows of each wave, and whether the chart is showing higher highs/lows when it bottoms out, or if it is showing lower highs/lows. Also a myriad of other stats, averages to look at.
With a share like this though I would suggest that the fundamentals are much more critical, but the technical side can help when to buy/sell in the shorter term. Never fool proof though!
Fundamentally, this share is in a good place, but on a short term technical move, 200p (there or there abouts) is consistent with the near top of the current wave of the downtrend since mid Febs all time highs.
That's not to say it can't break through 200p, of course it can - just that it might take further buying pressure to get there and stay there.
The important thing for commodities miners is to see a high, but crucially stable price of the commodity that they are mining for. The fact that Bitcoin has stabilized at the mid 50s mark is more important than any sharp, volatile rise.
It's the longer term bitcoin price that will determine future profits, not a short term move.
Hi all,I don’t think this share should be looked at hour by hour, or even on a weekly basis. I have just invested as long term, I believe blockchain has some vital uses in society and in financial regulation, and Argo seem intent on changing the landscape around it.I do think that costs can be driven down by going green and using renewables, and that benefit will only be seen in the coming years. As for valuation, I’m not too concerned about the next few weeks, but only the next quarterly earnings release, when hopefully it will show growing revenue. GLA.
I have only recently bought this share a month or so ago, and this is one that has to be good value to buy now looking forward for the next couple of years, even just on a technical basis.
I think if you had bought 18/24 months ago, it might be a different story, but Bab**** will rerate once the pandemic dissipates and the economy starts to recover. Just requires some patience, which is one characteristic many investors seem to have lost.
The impact to global growth is very uncertain from the virus, but there is a clear supply and demand shock from this that will not go away for some time. The real question is whether global growth slows by 0.5% or 2%, but there will be several economies plunging into recession as a result of the coronavirus.
The US is suffering because instead of pre-coronavirus earnings growth of +10%, this is now expected to be 0% at best, with the most likely outcome of negative corporate earnings growth.
In addition, no one is quite sure if China will be able to come back online fully, as all it takes is for the virus to start spreading in other parts of the country, and quarantine could happen all over again.