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Thanks, Chas.

On what basis a bargain, given there is no guidance available?

Thanks for posting this - it’s a balanced sounding assessment.

Hope u r right - slightly odd to have this much of a jump today, but sub 30p isn’t the right price.

https://www.europaoil.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/220609_EOG-The-full-package.pdf
I think everyone (company and Tennyson) focuses on Wressle and Serenity for valuation purposes: Ireland and Morocco are long shots/ totally discounted, falling outside core value of 7.8p.

Insider buy announcement this morning helps support your bull case a bit. But the lack of info from the company makes this impossible to hold/buy for me. They said they are materially lowering their profit expectations for this year, and yet didn't say by how much and aren't sharing with us the new forecasts that Investec/ the institutions get. Investec are the in house broker and we (as shareholders) in effect pay for their research don't we? - it seems ridiculous to me that we aren't provided with their numbers. How can we value the company without those new numbers?

Diff to read too much into the trades imo, but does seem to b some interest here now. Let’s see.

It’s an unquantified profit warning, with no broker forecasts available or guidance for retail investors. Terrible communication and deserves a right beating in my view.

Yeah, they do look seriously happy and talking in a v positive way.

Good afternoon session for PANR holders. Big t the real test still to come…..

Thanks

Thanks, Scot.

Interesting post, Agricore. I'll have a think about what you say and still working through the numbers myself.

Hi, thanks for this and to Rooba for the comments on the other thread. I though the call was reassuring and the explanation on lighting plausible and the vaping stuff is still exciting as a growth prospect. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some director buys.

I'm still working through all the numbers, but what I reckon so far is:

Before the RNS, we knew what 2022 was going to be and the RNS just confirms that. Before the RNS, the SP was, let's say, 125p - which takes account of all the macro problems etc etc. Given that the 2022 numbers are basically the same before and after the RNS it doesn't help valuation of the SP drop, instead I compare 2023E using Equity Development's numbers. EPS before was 13.3 and is now 9.3: using before SP of 125 and after SP of, say, 80 that gives PE of 9.4 before and 8.6 after. If you look at it in terms of 2023 div yield, 5.84% becomes 5.87%; earnings yield goes from 10.64 to 11.625 and div cover from 1.82 to 1.97. So it has got cheaper on these measures, but not by a lot. The div numbers from ED also seem to include the final div from 2022 in 2023, which isn't very helpful, as that keeps the payout ratio at 50% for FY23, but we know it's going to 25% - hence 2024 is a div of 2.6p with EPS of 11.7. So based on all this, my impression so far is that the drop is basically about right (assuming that the SP before the drop was about right). However, I'd love to be told that there is something in the RNS that I've missed that puts a better gloss on things because I have a position in this already and would obviously like a SP rise from here!

I’m looking into adding here - would u guys b willing to share the metrics/basis u r using for saying this is too cheap, please?
Thanks

Yep, it's right to say that the structures are different and IT's have the advantage over OEICs of being able to retain earnings and smooth out income. But at the moment you have to pay a premium for FTSE100 dominated IT's - at least the ones I've looked at seem to have a premium - and I find that hard to justify. And I'm also not aware of a UK IT that pays income monthly, which I prefer.

Income IT's something I've been looking at as well, thanks for raising. MRCH and HHI had a look at. Also CTY and DIG. Struggling with why I would pay a premium to NAV though. Obviously, that type of investing is in favour at the moment (relatively speaking), but I'd prefer to wait for a discount to open up (if we get one). In the meantime, I've been buying into Man GLG Income Fund, at NAV obviously. Yield is around 5.23% at the moment according to Morningstar. Has the usual big yielding suspects in there and pays divis monthly (which I prefer). I think it slots in nicely with the other income IT's listed above - I'd welcome any thoughts on it, or other similar options.
www.man.com/glg-income

thanks for that. Looks fair enough actually - the reit was a bit of an outlier at such a premium to nav.

Could b profit taking, and the reit dropping to below NAV as most (if not all) the REITs I follow have done - I was pleasantly surprised by how well that had held up, until today…..

Yeah, there's obviously risk in the future for sure - true of most retail in the UK tbf. But that's different to what you guys have been suggesting above, which is that there is evidence of problems in shops already - that isn't born out by what the company said a few weeks ago and isn't my own personal experience either. The real crunch for retail may well come over the winter with higher fuel bills and xmas trading potentially disrupted, but with Ang the key selling period is now and the weather is good (which is v important), fuel bills are (relatively) manageable and so I don't see cause for immediate concern ahead of H1 results in August. The SP drop obviously suggests some people are worried, which is fair enough given what's going on with the macro, but the volume is tiny (down 55% 10d / 3m) so I'm not reading too much into it. As the company said a few weeks ago, it's not immune from the cost of living crisis, but people are reluctant to give up their main hobby/pastime and it is a very affordable sport, compared to lots of others. If you sell now at these prices you're guaranteed to be taking a loss, or you can wait it out and hope that only 1 year of numbers is impacted - in the medium/long run, the challenges ahead may take out the weakest independent traders and give ANG more of an advantage with its scale and cash resources. We'll see.