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There's a bit of Private Frazer about your posts, don't you think andybm3/Peaky? I mean you guys always think everything is doomed, doomed. In contrast, the outlook statement from the full year results as published just less than 6 weeks ago was "cautiously optimistic" for the future - I'm not sure you guys have seen it? For example, it said, "Our first quarter of the new financial year has seen growth trends which are broadly in line with our expectations having annualised significant prior year post lockdown peaks." No sign there of any difficulties. Next update due for H1 around 18 August or so I understand.

If you are worried you could contact the management team and ask them whether they intend to suddenly reverse what they said recently and start closing stores rather than opening new ones? Let us know what they say, if you do. I haven't seen any stock level issues at my local store by the way, and busy as ever.

Who knows what SP will do next. We've had results recently and there was nothing worrying in there that I saw. I certainly wouldn't be confident enough of big further SP falls to sell up at these depressed prices with a view to buying back lower down. The lack of liquidity makes this a v difficult stock to trade, don't you think?

Maybe you're right to be negative, but the weather is good and there's lots of people out fishing. We know the recent cash position and have clear and recent guidance for this year and next. I wouldn't worry too much.

Still struggling a bit with how to value this. I used to see it as a NAV and divi growth option and so forgave the low starting yield. Now if the market no longer believes in the growth story quite so much it tends to shine more of a light on the initial yield, which is still very low even at this SP as compared to lots of other UK reits. I think we'd all love to have BBOX in our portfolio on a 5% yield, but we're miles off that still even with the heavy SP fall. (I'm using the 6.7p divi per year figure which I think it the latest available as my reference point). Very happy to hear other views.

Yeah, it would b v interesting to know who he is. He’s v specific as to 80/20 chance of 5x/0.5 current market cap. I’m convinced by the 5x/0.5 bit, and would love to believe it’s 80/20…../

Well you've got EBITDA £0.2m ahead of the upgraded expectations for this year, so that's not bad. Next year you have an in line with market expectations forecast and comments around potential business acquisitions; cash position on 30 April (so post fitting out the European distribution centre) of £13.4m; and the usual statements from them about developing their digital capability etc etc. You then also have new forecasts for the year after from Singers with a pretty chunky revenue growth leap to £93.2m and EBITDA of £5m again. So there's a pretty reasonable forward projection of what they expect to happen in the next 2 years against which we can test/monitor them. I think that's fair enough, and it now comes down to whether they can execute the European plan and deliver those expectations. We should get more on that during the call on 23/5.

I’m not sure as to whether the bod can add until after they publish the results in July? Anyway, I added a few more today. GLA

Just added at 136p - well oversold here, as the RNS implicitly suggests imo.

Spreadsheet is super useful - thanks

Agreed that it's on a 10%+ discount to 31/12/21 NAV and that that NAV has probably risen since then. I've been surprised at the scale and speed of the pullback. However, I'm struggling a bit with how to assess the future prospects and valuation here. On the one hand we're now at a decent discount to NAV and in the short term it looks like the NAV will rise. On the other, the medium term prospects for NAV growth don't look at positive as they did, say, two months ago (due to worsening economic situation/ ability of tenants to pay higher rents/ rising costs of debt). So I can see why this would trade at a discount, rather than a premium, to NAV and I'm not sure how far NAV discount/premium is really the right way to value this in this environment. The other thing I'm struggling with is the yield - last year the DSP was 6.7p and we don't have a specific target for how that is to change this year. So, using 6.7p as the figure, a SP of 196p is a yield of only 3.4% -not bad, but not amazing when you can now get 2-2.5% on cash balances.

BBOX has been big favourite of mine for a long time now - but I'm just not sure how to value it really in a rising interest rate environment.

Same applies to lots of the other logistics/warehouse reits I guess, such as SGRO, LMP, SHED, WHR. All previously trading well ahead of NAV and now suddenly at discounts (or at least assumed discounts) to NAV.

Any thoughts welcome.

Hi, thanks for this. The half year results RNS (for the period to 30/9/21) announced a maiden ordinary divi of 2.2p, paid on 14 Jan 22. Won't the next div then be announced in the full year results (for the period to 31/3), which they have said will be issued in July 22?

I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say "special" divi.

That was the interim divi, another to come in 2022, no?

Yeah, agreed. But I couldn't resist adding today - you have the divi with this one, which pays you to wait it out.

Hi all, I subscribed for some supr shares in the recent fundraise through PB and they still haven’t been credited to my interactive investor account despite admission to trading on Fri 29/4. Has anyone else had a better or similar experience? On previous occasions it’s been done same day as admission or a day after.
Thanks a lot

Rbc also downgraded the entire logistics sector last week. Rising interest rate expectations - leading to refinancing at higher Interest rates / impact of higher interest rates on NAV values.

Hi, I'm no expert in this stuff and yes it's of course correct to say that a resource upgrade was anticipated - the company had said as much. The scale of the upgrade was maybe less so. As the upgrade is all contingent resource stuff and the scale so massive anyway it hardly matters to the short term valuation of the company really I would guess - it's obviously the commerciability that everyone wants to know. With OP down yesterday (and market heavily down) and again today, we could easily have been looking at sub 130p without the RNS. So I'm not convinced that it's right to say the RNS was "sold" - but I do agree that we're likely to have to wait for Alkaid to get any meaningful increase in the SP as that's the next key to commeciability (as I undersand it).

So currently the SP is slightly up - doesn’t look much like an RNS being sold into at the moment tbf. More market driven.

Seems pretty obvious that this is a market sell off, not selling the RNS. If the RNS had been out on an up day, the sp would almost certainly be up.

I'm out of my trading account position now. 11p capital gain instead of divi. Less than I wanted/targeted, but take what's available and move on. GLA.