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Back in on the placing.

Some others in the sector are down quite a bit today (SGRO, WHR). My guess is that the SP got too far ahead of NAV and with the change to a more negative market sentiment some people decided to take profits. That’s what I did a few weeks ago anyway, and now looking for a chance to get back in again closer to NAV.

Called into my local store today and there was good stock availability. Bought a few this morning and now SP up b4 had a chance to add further. Had also sold out previously @ 80p (feels a long time ago now).

If you roll in then there won’t be any CGT, but if you cash out and then buy in there will be I imagine (obviously not an issue if held in ISA/SIPP). As Unicorn is open ended, you would roll over at NAV and I’m not sure there would be a discount? RNS says currently around 67% commonality between AIF and Unicorn, so we already have a high amount of assets that will just roll over into Unicorn at NAV without the need for any selling in the market by AIF. By the time of the liquidation, I’d expect the commonality figure to be much higher than that. Timing wise, reading the RNS again, it says rollover/ liquidation is “expected to be in October/November 2021”.

The Auckland regulatory notice contained the finding that “Auckland has failed to ensure that any arrangements it enters into do not inappropriately advance the interests of third parties or are arrangements which the regulator could reasonable assume are for such purposes”. The notice continues that, “Our investigations also identified that some of the lease transaction arrangements Auckland has entered into have involved companies linked to directors of Auckland, and its shareholders.”

My guess is that some bright spark at Anson Advisors, and then a few days afterwards another bright spark at ShadowFall, read these statements, looked into the situation and manged to come up with enough to persuade their bosses to open short positions. Then, with the usual cloak and mirrors, one of their representatives opened up a new account on this forum and started posting ominous sounding messages, with always the tempt that there was more to reveal.

As far as I can see, none of this has anything to do with the NAV value of CSH. But if anyone is concerned about that NAV value, you could try speaking to CSH about it.

Personally speaking, I sold out of this and SOHO when I read the notice as I didn’t fancy an argument with some hedge funds about this point. But I haven’t yet seen anything to put me off buying back in.

Good RNS for holders. I’ll be voting for discontinuation.

Unicorn UK Income Fund looks ok to me as a roll over option.

The option “for a cash exit close to NAV” is great. Anyone have any view on what “close to NAV” means?

Latest NAV from Tuesday is 450.33p.

I imagine we have to subtract the following from the NAV:

1. Costs of the liquidation. Unicorn are to make a “cost contribution” of between £50k and £100k (the amount depends on how many of us roll over to their UK income fund), which I guess gives some idea of the scale of the costs we are talking about. But I don’t really know. Anyone have any ideas?

2. Costs of selling any assets that won’t migrate to Unicorn. Given that the NAV is calculated based on the BID price and that AIF’s positions are pretty small, surely these will be relatively low?

Assuming the NAV sticks at around 450p until the liquidation, would it be fair to assume liquidation at around 440p?

Timing wise, anyone have any idea how long it might take? The RNS doesn’t really give any meaningful clues.

Good to hear you are continuing to hold, Hindy. I’m not convinced the HL figures describe the management charges, rather they seem to relate more to the overall costs of running the REIT – which is altogether different (although it would be interesting to see what SUPR say about the figures, if and when you raise them with them). The large value trades that have been going through at 121p+ in the last few weeks suggest to me that there is a lot of institutional buying of SUPR going on at these levels, which I’m hoping is a good sign for the future.

Agreed that the sell off seems connected to that regulatory notice. Numis published a note last week commenting on how that regulatory notice could impact CSH and the big sell off on Thursday and Friday last week then followed. The link below provides some discussion on the topic and how other analysts such as Berenberg don’t agree with Numis – there are also some interesting comments in the comments section. Numis have long been on the bearish side of the social housing REIT commentary, and I suspect some holders sold immediately without fully taking into account the other opinions. My personal view is that the notice goes over a lot of old and familiar ground, but it still doesn't look great.

https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/numis-regulator-could-knock-social-housing-dividends/a1544009?re=88259&ea=1726457&utm_source=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_medium=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily&utm_campaign=BulkEmail_Investment+Trust+Insider+Daily

Hindy, it sounds from your most recent post that you’ve changed your mind and decided to hold onto your SUPR shares, despite the HL figures on the charges? It sounds like another HL administrative error to me.

SUPR pay day tomorrow.

It's been great for months now. The whole sector continues to re-rate at a pace. I guess it's impossible to say when it might start to tail off. The commentary/research I've seen suggests that we are still some way from a mature market (e.g. online retail sales are only around a quarter of the total retail sales, so plenty of growth potential) - but then most of the commentary/research is self serving and impossible to place too much weight on. Having said that, the RNS results coming through from the sector all suggest to me that the momentum in NAV and rental growth is very much continuing. Be interested to hear any other thoughts.

Bought in first thing this morning on the RNS. Easy to say now, but it did seem likely the SP would rise on the news. Hopefully more to come.

Thanks for pointers. I've got a holding in SOHO as well, but personally I think CSH is the better of the two on a divi growth basis. Didn't fancy RESI. I suppose the risk is really a change of political policy and/or the sustainability of the business model in a general sense (though concerns around the latter point seem to have fallen away quite a bit, as I understand it). CSH is 4.5% of my portfolio and SOHO 3.5%. Would be happy to increase both if the right opportunity comes along (e.g. PB offer).

Interesting. Be interested to know of any others you know of that do something similar.

Agreed. The numbers look fine and as expected. Beta of 0.1ish suggests low risk/ market correlation and happy with 5% divi. I’m guessing the slight SP pull back is due to the strong hints of an imminent fundraising, perhaps to take CSH into housing provision for the homeless that they’ve been talking about for a while? Let’s hope that, if and when they decide to raise monies, they use Primary Bid.

Agreed. The numbers look fine and as expected. Beta of 0.1ish suggests low risk/ market correlation and happy with 5% divi. I’m guessing the slight SP pull back is due to the strong hints of an imminent fundraising, perhaps to take CSH into housing provision for the homeless that they’ve been talking about for a while? Let’s hope that, if and when they decide to raise monies, they use Primary Bid.

Agree that EBOX is cheaper on various measures, however I suspect that the market is not convinced the opportunity for rental growth in the sector is as good on the Continent as in the UK given the greater availability of land there. Nothing wrong in having both though.

Agreed. Great EPS and NAV growth and SP rise to match. Added some more first thing this morning.

EPS 17.78p (beat consensus by 0.24p); DPS 5.18p (beat consensus by 0.04p) : “Expect to deliver double digit growth in operating profit at the full year”

I'm happy with that.

Thanks for the posts above, everyone. I’ve added to my holding today. In terms of risks, some analysts are saying that high inflation and low interest rates is a negative for life-insurers as it leads to higher expenses and higher claims costs for contracts with claim payouts linked to inflation. The annual report acknowledged that LGEN retains some inflation risk and so perhaps it is this high inflation/ low interest rate issue that is behind the sector pulling back since April? On the plus side I’ve read lots of highly qualified people recommending LGEN at this price for yield and growth (yield above 7% and was growing decently before 2020 and maintained in 2020) and balancing risk/reward I take the view that LGEN is good value here.

I also didn’t like the expression, “with an initial net yield in line with the Company's present expectations”. Why couldn’t they confirm the figure, as most other RNSs do? Still a great place to store capital though, and good results, IMHO.