Member Info for tawse57

@Carrington - we have US and UK inflation figures this week plus UK retail prices. Do you have any thoughts on what impact these might have? I am leaning towards not buying any more MKS or EZJ until they are out. For some reason I have got it in my mind that the markets might be making a big move this Tues in the US / Wed in the UK. Would be interested in your thoughts.

A lot of data out this week. US inflation figures on Tuesday 1.30 PM our time. On Wednesday morning we get the UK inflation and retail price data. Could see some big moves in market generally before Thursday.

In the US Delta last week announced rising passenger numbers which lifted the US airline stocks. Their economy does not have the pleasure of Reeves, Lammy & Starmer though.

Any idea when the next update from EZJ will be? Or is it a totally random thing?

I do wonder what effect Labour's tax increases are having on Brits taking holidays. Also whether the fab weather currently is going to make people think twice about booking now for later this Summer.

Orban clearly is a thorn in the side of the EU's Orwellian plans. I think it is fair that big investors may be spooked about the possibility of EU punitive financial actions against Hungary for being against endless mass invasion of Europe and suggesting that peace is the best option between NATO and Russia in Ukraine. The EU could withhold grants and/or fine Hungary for not being obedient.

US core inflation report out next Tuesday. Fears that it will go up which will drive the inflation trade again. That will see higher interest rates on the debt and also higher fuel prices. No doubt this explains the oil price back on the rise and the likes of BP and Shell on the rise.

If inflation goes up next Tuesday in Yank land there will be fears of the need to raise interest rates, which would have a knock-on effect to us in UK / Europe. With US markets at all times highs we could see a dozy of a market sell-off next Tues and Wed.

It seems that Trump has announced 50% tariffs on US imports of copper. Looking online it seems people are confused by this, arguing that it will have knock-on effects on the costs of EVs and house building in the US. Apparently US stockpiles of copper are at the highest ever, according to some posts on X, so maybe Trump is having a go at Musk and Tesla????

Surreal.

Carrington - I was reading on a financial site last night that speculated a Trump win would drive down the price of oil due to him opening up the US back to fracking, opening that pipeline to the Canadian oil fields. I suppose he could stimulate growth in the US economy and perhaps also be less in favour of EVs... so that could drive the oil price. Sorry, just ranting out loud. It could be Kamala of course.

I am concerned about Israel and Iran fighting getting worse and drawing in other countries. I think markets will drop when Israel hits back at Iran and then Iran sends in a few hundred or a few thousand missiles.

People are bound to take profits in Chinese stocks if they were in them before the rally. The gains have been incredible. It could all crash back down in the coming days. When I looked earlier this morning Hong Kong was down nearly 8 percent. I still think that Israel and Iran will drive up the price of oil. If we get a pullback back to nearer £4... If...

I think you might have bought the bottom. Looks like Israel is about to start a wider ME war. Oil will surely rise as a result?

Usually it is the market makers buying shares to fulfill orders. Or selling surplus shares usually after filling orders.

Anyone know how exposed EZJ - and all the other UK based low cost carriers for that matter such as Wizz, Jet2, etc - is to the Middle East. Off the top of my head their only routes close to Lebanon & Israel are Cyprus and Egypt?

The war in the Middle East is expanding rapidly today. Lots of deaths unfortunately. Israeli jets have landed at the RAF base in Cyprus because their own runways have been under attack. Tonight the Yanks have deployed another carrier from the US and are currently flying an additional brigade from the 101st into Cyprus to join the one alreadly there.

Surely this is going to affect the airlines and drive up the price of oil?

Thoughts?

War appears to be breaking out in the Middle East today. Israeli jets have just landed at the RAF base in Cyprus because their own runways have ben bombed. The Yanks have just sent another carrier - the Truman - from the US and a brigade from the 101st Airborne is being ferried by an air bridge of C17s to Cyprus to join the Mountain brigade already there.

Surely this means that oil is going up. I see that XOM is up nicely in the US today with a bit of a spike at the end of the day.

Unbelievable rise considering what is going on in Lebanon in the past 24 hours. Presumably shorts covering due to the US Fed cut and possible market rally.

You may be right. What is keeping me out of Wizz, Ryan, Easy and other airlines currently is the war expanding risk. You have the Israelis chomping at the bit to expand the war into Lebanon and now we will have, apparently later today, Biden and Starmer in Washington giving the OK for Ukraine to fire British and US missiles into Russia. If all that kicks off we will see oil prices spike and all other manner of problems for these airlines.

Happy to be told your thoughts on this if you think I am talking nonsense.

Not doing much for the Wizz share price today though. Wonder why? Is it the threat of a bigger war in the Middle East?

Whilst the potential war expanding in the ME is a concern, plus we now conveniently have mpox just in time for the US election, I do wonder if this is being driven down in order for someone to accumulate. There does not seem to be any sign of accumulation in the daily volume though and, of course, we then see Blackrock magically accquire an extra 5% - is that right - from somewhere.

People are worried that the US is going into recession. That there will be less oil demand as a result. Less goods transported. Less people driving. Less people flying.