Member Info for taudelta

(the Raheem variety!)

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1699981-acuerdan-con-gobernadores-avanzar-en-una-ley-petrolera-a-medida-de-las-empresas Kirchner met with provincial governors yesterday and made it very clear the new law will bring shale licensing into federal control. Motivation is to attract big foreign players to help exploit Vaca Muerta and neighbouring plays. AEN's licenses were taken out for the normal 25 year terms and hopefully the feds will not interfere with these... but it seems much less likely AEN will gain any new licences (the co's strength having been good relationships with provincial governors). Maybe AEN saw writing on wall given its recent push into neighbouring countries.

Not sure Centrica's absence from up-coming licensing round is hugely significant ... studying the BGS Bowland survey in conjunction with a PEDL map suggests that the best PEDLs are already licensed (e.g. east of Blackpool, Gainsboro Trough, Widmerpool Trough).

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1699143-una-pelea-que-pone-en-riesgo-el-futuro-de-vaca-muerta This explains the reason for big drop in SP over past few days.... a framework for regulation and most importantly licensing of shale acreage is under discussion by the federal government. YPF seems to have been trying to persuade the feds to snatch the power to award and renew licences away from provincial governments (YPF would then in future be hand-in-hand with the feds). Naturally the provinces are fighting hard against this. YPFs licences have of course been awarded by the provinces (notably Neuquen in which Vaca Muerta lies)... and the worry is that if licensing authority is appropriated by the feds, in the very worst case AEN's licences are lost. There is some talk of a "grandfather" compromise that will keep acreage already licensed under the existing regime ...this is all yet to play out......

PS that's unrisked of course, but with a 0.1 COS, it's worth an incremental 5p to the SP, on these calculations, but DYOR folks...

If we believe UJO's independent consultants, and taking a bottom-end 1% recov rate on the oil alone, that's 54 mmbo... using $10 as NPV/bbl (= £6), that's 54x6= £324 mln gross. EDR have 32.5%, so £105 mlm net. Using 220m shares (post ALK and financing), that's 48p per share net to EDR

Balance of market forces at end of next week a bit unpredictable. There will be the likes of us disappointed that we got hardly any shares in the open offer excess scheme, that's a plus for demand. But could well be supply from flipping by some institutions of their placing shares... time will tell...

Just out... RENAV 67p (pro forma including Alkane PEDLs and financing).

Poster on iii saying "I've been allotted all the excess entitlement I applied for"... this can't be true, as the result of the open offer will be announced 07:00 4th June... what brokers are doing is temporarily debiting full cash for all excess shares applied for, and putting a temporary balancing entry in the stock ledger... which I think will largely evaporate next week (and most of the cash accordingly be returned).

See today's RNSs from Europa & Union Jack... Wressle to spud July, Burton to spud only after Wressle drill complete ...(is it because of using same kit?)

... today. YTD sales up 3%, compares with 5% 2013 vs 2012 reported in prelims. But £ is very strong in 2014, so sales in local currency prob doing OK ... steady as she goes I guess......

Proactive Investors has a positive article today (basically driven by Westhouse research).

Excellent news. Pre-acquisition the road traffic mgt business was low margin; hopefully that was then, today might be better, depends on pricing. Labour slipping in opinion polls so re-nationalisation of rail opcos lower probability. Message for BR that can be read forwards or backwards: O sack Sakh-o. Second thought: Toure brother for brother exchange (well, I can dream!)

As interest rates are tiny, interest earned barely changes when cash balance drops ... so mathematically a 1% drop in issued shares pushes EPS up by 1% .......... please say hello if you are there someone as this bb is so inactive!

John, Hunter ... I'm wondering if AEN's volatility isn't just down to automatic trades (ATs)... assuming that the London Stock Exchange correctly identifies ATs and ordinary trades (OTs), then all of the early volume today that took AEN down to 42 was ATs. As soon as an OT or two came in, SP started to recover... is some **** with an algorithm jerking the SP around? i.e. was there zero fundamental reason for this morning's price action?

See RNS today, co bought 0.6% of stock into treasury at £1.25 ... there are buckets of cash on the balance sheet and more cash generated day by day... a lot of potential therefore to do more.

SP goosed up another 4% overnight... look at the chart (DTE.AX in Yahoo)... why no SP movement in April but a sudden rise this week?? Caveat emptor on Monday!

It has just occurred to me that the £165m would buy all of Tracsis including a takeover premium, with 2 Andy Carrolls thrown in ... what does that tell us about Premiership football?

The sp was flat as a pancake at 11 throughout April... this week lo and behold, three trading days ahead of the AIM intro, we are up to 13... and there hasn't been any news... probably entirely coincidental.... but ....caveat emptor next week....

Cheers CM... that £164m would be on top of £50m fine for breaking the Fair Play rules!