Member Info for Target6p

Last chance. LOL. ok. If you like this price then you will love 0.90 to 0.70 - if it comes about

It is what it is. And the SP is will either drift down further if sentiment does not improve or it will stay flat.

Still got loads of overhang from the last placing which is likely to be churned out between end of June and end of Aug

No near-term catalysts and the next actual catalyst will be completion of phase 1 relocation which is mid Aug.

Company has to deliver and past performance does not lend itself to this.

So yeah, don’t be surprised if we see 0.9. 0.8, 0.7, so if you like buying now you will love buying then!!!

At current gold prices my model has an implied share price of:

Current: 0.64p

End of 2026: 1.12p

Of course this will change as the variables change.

Very doubtful. Its meaningless. That won’t change people’s attitudes and if anything, people will just use non-ISA accounts for cash and pay the tax - which means more money for the Chancellor.

All it will do is raise more money for the Chancellor.

Dixie is on the rise. Gold front running this and perhaps an equity correction - NASDAQ/US500. Gold typically performs badly between Q2 and Q3. So seasonal factors involved as well. But purge days like this are good, as it washes out the leverage and eventually finds a bottom, from where prices will find support.

Just FYI:

Across all significant gold corrections since 1975 — including both types — a reasonable average depth is roughly 28–32%, though the median for corrections that resolve within 12–18 months sits closer to 20–25%.

The current ~28.6% drawdown (from Jan 2026 - daily intraday high: $5,627) is therefore squarely in the middle of the historical range for a correction within an ongoing bull market, rather than a structural reversal.

Since 1975 the GAGR is 8.1% pa. That puts us at about $4,350.

Gold could indeed go lower, who knows, but based upon how things move then today’s price is reasonable. Gold front runs the future, so it has seen a higher dollar and long-term rates. Chuck in a bit of fear and leverage, then it overshoots. Its looking interesting now.

To go below $4k.

Would imagine this may affect sentiment on the whole complex.

Luckily for KEFI:

A. They are profitable above #$1,500 per oz

B. They are not producing for another couple of years

Times like this it is good to know what you own. But short-term sentiment will likely have an effect.

Gold typically does better in the 4th quarter, so IF KEFI deliver and have cleared the lands and started debt drawdown, then things could improve.

If its above 1.19p year end, then all is well!

Sorry, just to add my model has a current implied P/NAV of ~0.14×. not 0.17x.

At 0.14× P/NAV, the market is pricing KEFI as though it has a roughly 1-in-3 chance of reaching production. My framework/Model assigns ~80–85%.

Visibility comes with solid progress on the ground. No talk. Again, only the future will guide us to this answer.

.. until FCF is visible.

Given the dead zone risk, 0.7–0.8p cannot be ruled out in a stress scenario. However, at this implied P/NAV (~0.17×), almost all plausible bad news short of project cancellation appears priced in. The risk/reward for a patient holder with a 3–4 year horizon is asymmetric to the upside.

I’m cautiously optimistic, but would certainly not rule anything out as far a share price is concerned, until production is reached. My numbers suggest that if the SP is at or above 1.19p, then things are progressing. This uses the gold price today.

I’ll tink you will find that $6m of the pref shares have already been allocated towards the total TK mining project as per updated presentation on page 3: https://www.kefi-goldandcopper.com/files/presentations/kefi-investor-update-presentation-7april26.pdf

Https://www.stockmarket.et/kme-minerals-appoints-cbe-capital-investment-bank-for-gold-linked-preference-share-issuance/

But it’s not in any RNS, Presentation, official statement?

Thanks, I’ll leave that there.

XHITA, please point me to the disclosure about temporary accommodation. Thanks.

9 days’ time.

6 weeks till beginning of August. They have now given themselves another deadline to have phase 1 complete: August. 10 weeks till end of August.

Next catalyst weeks away, but would think as it nears, the SP should rise. The biggest catalyst will be debt drawdown, hoped for October.

Again, these timelines all require delivery on the ground. Only way to assess this is to look backwards when we are there.

Anyway, the price is what it is, until actual progress is reported.

Now at top @ 1.082

Corporate/legal standing

Certificate of incorporation and good standing for each borrowing entity (KEFI Minerals Ethiopia, TKGM SPV)

Confirmation that no material adverse change (MAC) has occurred since financial close

Board resolutions authorising the drawdown request

Confirmation that representations and warranties remain true and accurate

Regulatory/licensing

Mining licence in good standing and not subject to any challenge, suspension or revocation — critical given the Ethiopian regulatory environment

Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) approval confirmed current

Community relocation plan compliance certificate — particularly relevant given the 360-family resettlement underway

Any required Oromia regional government consents

Financial

Drawdown notice in prescribed form submitted within required notice period

Confirmation equity tranche has been fully deployed (equity-first condition — Harry confirmed this explicitly)

No default or event of default subsisting

Hedging arrangements in place if required under facility agreement

Project/technical

Updated project schedule confirming no material delay to critical path

Lycopodium NTP confirmation (limited or full scope depending on timing)

BCM earthworks contract confirmation

Insurance policies in place and premiums current

Personnel

Key person confirmations — Harry, Eddy, and likely the CFO named as key individuals under the facility agreement; their continued employment is a standard lender requirement

The EEP and road dates (CP2) sit slightly separately because they involve third-party government commitments rather than KEFI's own internal compliance — which is why Harry treated them as a distinct category

CP 1 — Administrative/procedural certificates

Licenses confirmed in good standing

Key personnel all intact

Various procedural sign-offs

CP 2 — Final dates in government-facing agreements

EEP electricity connection — final commitment date from the Ethiopian government; described as having "some float built into it for safety's sake"

New government road — final connection date (existing roads are in place; this is an additional road the government is building)

CP 3 — Lender site visit

Technical advisers, social/environmental advisers, and project monitoring team from the lenders visit site to:

Eyeball the team

Ask questions

Confirm everything is on track

@bonkers, I think the Iran thing will continue. Midterms coming up soon. And finance is still subject to CPs. Although they should likely clear these.