Member Info for Target6p

Cheap? It’s only worth what it is today 1.18p.

Not being rude, but you should research this yourself. I can name 5, with one very big name in Ethipoia....

Correct Electric. If no issues with relocation, Full NTP, weather, Infrastructure, security, supply lines, in the early stages, lender drawdown, etc then there should be very limited knock-on effects. There is already some fat built into the timeline, but I am adding a typical African average slip. I know they have good contractors and blah blah. But it is my preference to work on what is a typical delay for a African developer.

Our product will be underpinned by strong economic and geopolitical fundamentals over many years to come.

Debt also comes into this equation and trust in the reserve currency.

We now all live in a new normal.

Hopefully, this ship will steer in the right direction, and benefit from an emerging gold producing nation. There is a combination of factors, that could work heavily in KEFIs Favor. However, we are now in the execution phase, where delivery matters, especially with past issues. I would think the market would not take delays too well in my opinion. However, I am personally pencilling in a 6-9 months delay in full operations. No big deal though. Long term, (3 Years+) hopefully the SP reflects the NPV and potential.

*The US arms export normalization and the Eritrea de-escalation signal represent a regional environment fractionally less hostile than it was two months ago.

Https://addisstandard.com/between-opportunity-and-vulnerability-how-hormuz-crisis-reshapes-ethiopias-red-sea-future/

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Ok.

Why do you expect that Xhita?

No one really knows.

Of Ethiopia (NEBE) has dismissed multiple polling officials for unlawful conduct during the country’s seventh general election and has announced that certified final results will be released within ten to twenty days.

A shareholder Q&A published on KEFI's website included an idea for a 15:1 share consolidation. Management's response — that they would "endeavour to follow through as best we can" on the suggestions — is the first public signal that the board is not ruling it out.

KEFI currently trades on AIM with a share count well in excess of 10 billion. The company confirmed on 26 May 2026 that Stifel has been appointed as sponsor for a move to the LSE Main Market (Equity Shares – Commercial Companies segment), targeted for 2027. No hard minimum price rule exists for that segment, but sub-2p stocks face practical barriers: many institutional mandates exclude very low-priced shares, and a sponsor conducting UKLA diligence will flag the optics. A 15:1 consolidation at current prices would land the stock around 17-18p — more presentable, though still not premium-tier.

The Q&A response is not a board resolution, but it places the topic in the public domain with implicit management endorsement. Stifel will have seen it. The 2027 listing timeline gives roughly 12-18 months — enough runway to execute a consolidation, absorb retail shareholder reaction, and allow the price to stabilise before listing roadshows begin.

Greatland Gold — cited in the Q&A — executed a consolidation and is now trading higher. The register composition changed markedly afterwards, with institutional weight increasing.

Many shareholders have averaged down over years at sub-2p and will arithmetically feel no better off post-consolidation while psychologically resenting the lower share count. Management has potentially avoided this for years partly for that reason. There is also a scenario where the stock re-rates materially as Tulu Kapi construction progresses and first gold approaches, which would partially solve the price optics problem without the political cost of a consolidation.

Other catalysts flagged in the same Q&A — an Edison research note, an institutional event at the Ethiopian Embassy in London, and an online presentation on the Saudi GMCO asset — suggest a coordinated investor relations push is being planned ahead of the Main Market move. Taken together, this looks like pre-marketing activity rather than isolated suggestions.

The probability that KEFI proceeds with some form of consolidation before or concurrent with the Main Market listing has increased materially. It is not certain — management retains optionality and the retail base creates genuine political risk — but the combination of Stifel's appointment, the 2027 listing target, and the public Q&A response makes it the path of least resistance if the share price does not re-rate significantly on its own over the next 12 months.

It’s good to be glass half full, but also another thing to dismiss the real practical circumstances that this project could face.

Do I believe it gets there?, I am hopeful, but there are always many factors outside management and contractors’ abilities.

It’s a junior explorer, now developer and hopefully soon to be a producer. I don’t tint my expectations.

@electric 100%. These are my opinions. Based upon how I view risk and execution.

The security condition was described as the highest level of protection as a precautionary step, and the co-lenders' security consultants conducted site visits in July 2024 before AFC granted preliminary approval. The "site visits" language suggests the inspection focus was the mine itself rather than the full supply chain, though DFI-standard security consultants would typically assess the broader operating environment as part of their methodology.

The logistics picture:

Heavy equipment will likely be brought in via the port of Djibouti. The nearest bitumen highway is approximately 25km from site, with an all-weather road connection being built as part of the government's infrastructure commitment. Separately, KEFI plans an on-site airstrip for approximately two weekly flights from Addis Ababa, with gold bars flown directly to a foreign refinery rather than moved by road.

The airstrip is significant — it removes the most valuable and vulnerable element of the logistics chain from road exposure entirely. For construction inputs, the 25km link to the bitumen highway is the critical segment, and its construction is a government obligation under the project agreements.

Assessment

The formal lender condition likely centres on site security rather than explicit corridor protection in contractual terms. But three factors mitigate the supply line risk considerably: gold export is removed from road exposure via the airstrip; the Ethiopian Roads Authority is building and maintaining the access road under a sovereign commitment; and the 25km offsite segment is short enough to fall within the plausible perimeter of the deployed federal force. The 360km corridor to Addis is a different proposition, but construction materials move on standard commercial freight routes shared by many other projects — OLA targeting of general freight would represent a meaningful escalation beyond their current operational pattern in Western Wellega. Logistics security is best characterised as a moderate residual risk rather than a primary threat to the construction programme.

@electric, My own experience and research and AI for overaly.

I like to understand the pros and cons, in full. My money is in KEFI and I am invested. I would be seen as cautiously optimistic. Fair to say this project is on its way. There are tail risks, that can slow down progress, but the quality of contractors is second to none. 80-85% chance of reaching first pour, in H2 2028 is pretty good odds, for a junior gold miner operating in Africa.

Ever reaching first pour: 80-85%

Revised slightly upward from the prior assessment. The position has materially strengthened — financing fully closed, groundbreaking with Abiy personally attending, all principal contracts executed, SAG mill ordered, lender security conditions met. The project is no longer in the "will it launch" category; it has launched. The base case risk of financial collapse or permanent abandonment is now low. The residual risks that could still prevent first pour are a severe and sustained Oromia security deterioration making the site operationally untenable, or a sovereign-level political reversal — both tail risks rather than base case. Lycopodium's specialist gold plant track record and mature design (14 engineering packages already issued) is a genuine positive for execution confidence, though it doesn't move the needle on the sovereign/security risks that dominate this number.

On the early 2028 schedule: 30-40%

The reasons for caution:

Resettlement as the primary near-term gate — 350 houses under construction but not yet complete; slippage here is the most foreseeable near-term schedule risk.

Rainy season — Kiremt runs June–September in Western Wellega but Tulu Kapi's altitude (1,600-1,800m) and highland terrain means natural drainage gradients work in BCM's favour; water runs off rather than pooling. The rainy season is a productivity drag on BCM cycle times rather than a programme stopper — probably a 15-20% efficiency reduction over four months rather than an effective halt. Worth weeks on the programme, not months

Q3 debt drawdown — later than ideal for Lycopodium's broader procurement pipeline beyond the SAG mill already ordered, though KEFI says it's managed within the schedule.

Oromia security — a continuous variable affecting contractor personnel movement and pace rather than a binary risk, but a persistent drag on programme confidence.

Lycopodium positive offset — fixed-price lump-sum structure, deep prior involvement in Tulu Kapi design, and specialist gold plant expertise materially reduce the most common EPCM slippage sources; this is a genuine and meaningful counterweight to the schedule risks above

The most probable outcome remains first pour in H2 2028 — a 6-9 month slip from the stated schedule. On a project of this history and in this operating environment, that would represent a strong execution outcome.

All principal contracts finalised. Lycopodium has issued 14 detailed engineering packages for final approval and the SAG mill — highest-value, longest-lead item — has been ordered. The 47km grid connection is underway with the first substation well advanced and all towers delivered to the district. Two access roads to site are under construction. Resettlement housing (350 units) is active, with bulk earthworks by BCM gated on licence area clearance.

On security, a permanent government protection force is in place as a formally contracted lender condition precedent, independently inspected and signed off prior to AFC/TDB financial close, layered over private on-site security. Commitment risk is low given the sovereign liability implications of any degradation. The residual risk is sufficiency rather than intent — specifically whether the protection architecture covers the full logistics corridor rather than just the site perimeter, and whether ENDF overstretch from a Tigray re-escalation could degrade force quality without formally breaching the commitment. Contractor duty-of-care thresholds (Lycopodium, BCM) remain the more likely near-term mechanism of any schedule disruption than a direct security incident at site.

On financing, AFC/TDB debt drawdowns are the relevant liquidity gate for Lycopodium's capital procurement pipeline. BCM operates under a schedule-of-rates structure — paid per tonne moved — and self-funds mobilisation against the contractual payment stream, so its deployment pace is driven by resettlement clearing the licence area rather than drawdown timing.

Where they should be at year-end (Dec 2026)

By month ~10 of a 24-month build from February 2026 groundbreaking:

Resettlement complete — 350 houses handed over, licence area cleared and available to BCM

Bulk earthworks well advanced — BCM fully deployed, pit pre-strip underway, waste dumps established, haul roads cut

Grid connection energised — 47km line and both substations commissioned, construction power available to site

Access roads complete — heavy haulage routing fully operational

Process plant civil works underway — mill and CIL circuit foundations poured, structural steel erection beginning

SAG mill on site — given ~9-12 month lead times from ordering, arrival and installation commencement expected Q4

Site infrastructure complete — permanent camp, workshops, reagent storage operational

Key gating items by year-end:

Resettlement pace remains the primary constraint on BCM's pre-strip start. AFC/TDB drawdown initiation (expected mid-2026) gates Lycopodium's broader procurement pipeline beyond the SAG mill already ordered. These are separate constraints on separate critical paths. Oromia security — and specifically contractor duty-of-care responses to any deterioration — is the exogenous risk capable of disrupting both simultaneously.

My rough guess for over hang clearence is between end of June and August.

Where we have positive updates, this will clear it more quickly.

Vote counting continues, with most constituencies expected to have a final count today, while others could have to wait until tomorrow.