Member Info for Target6p

@ equanimity: https://www.lycopodium.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Tulu-Kapi-Gold-Project_-Announcement_FINAL.pdf

Seems we still have a good amount of churn at 1.3p to get through.

Hopefully, this passes.

And if this is better understood, then it’s easier to understand why the share price is where it is. The market thinks it’s worth 1.3p now. That is the market as a whole speaking. However, future calculations beg to differ. I suppose if we better understand what the concerns are and why the market is discounting the project, then this would help us to identify what is going on now and whether today’s price reflects an opportunity or not. Make sense?

Good debate - I agree past delays are irrelevant, but they have happened and you can’t preclude them from happening again.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope all goes well, as I have a big stake here. But I think expectations on timing and risk sometimes need to be discussed and thought about more. This way when things do go wrong, we are not shocked/surprised but rather look at the question 'how would it be resolved'. Then we reduce our chances of making an ill-informed and irrational decisions. See, I am trying to get a balance here. And hopefully we all benefit.

Again, the principle behind this discussion is to look at the pros and cons. To make an informed decision and what affects those choices.

Thanks for commenting.

Much of what I said will weight on sentiment either positively or negatively and will make the share price react accordingly. But ultimately these aspects will be in hands of management to sort out.

Much of what I said will weight on sentiment either positively or negatively and will make the share price react accordingly. But ultimately these aspects will be in hands of management to sort out. If there is a problem, that problem then must get sorted. Can management deliver, given the big delays to get to this point, tricky one that one

I should have been a lot clearer on 2029. first 'commercial production', not commissioning.

My view is this, it is likely to reach full commercial production in 2029. My belief is 90% probability.

Junior mining companies often (regardless of who the contractors are), experience delays of up to 1 year. Sometimes things are just not in their control, for one reason or another - I would say work force will potentially be an obstacle - but not a blocker. There are also many other aspects to consider such as the delivery of the plant, and supply chain issues (not least what is happening with shipping). Again, these things are not showstoppers but can add time to the counter.

How de-risked are we to commercial production - well, we are now fully funded and permitted - this is critical, now it all rests with delivery. I can’t really see anything along this process that would curtail this project - however, there are always things like our lenders triggering their MCA clauses, which means we can never be certain of the outcome (and is another major milestone - debt drawdown). Some of the CPs also need consideration such as adequate insurance and security (which can change) I would say we are 88% de-risked, on the path towards production.

I would say I am cautiously optimistic.

Decent reply electric again with a solid rationale. 95% seems nailed on.

It is interesting, as we still need to complete re-settlement - this is a big milestone and hurdle to achieve, to enable bulk earth works.

I suspect this get there, but it will not be without further delays and issues.

Decent reply Xhita, with a solid rationale. I agree, the contractors are solid, but even then, there are things outside their control. ;)

I would be interested to have a genuine discussion about this topic as it can be quite subjective and leads to people leaning way or another. I think people on here are serious in the main and have knowledge and experience. My two questions to the floor are:

In percentage terms, what is the likelihood of reaching production in 2029?

In percentage terms how de-risked do you think this project is?

This will be an interesting conversation to have. If you could also give your rationale that would be great. Perhaps we can then better understand each other’s perspectives.

256m shares from yesterday ranging between 1.28 and 1.295, between 4-5:30pm.

Bid (79) v Ask (18)

KEFI should (if they have made sufficient progress) give a more meaningful update between end of May and mid-June on Tulu Kapi progress, covering early earthworks, resettlement housing, road/power infrastructure advances, or further contractor milestones. If received well, then this should generate a few large vol days and help clear the seller(s). Until then, crickets.

Another 18m ... out the door

Is churning. 3m and 5m out the door in the last 20m or so. I think it will more likely be august for the churn to be mainly out the door. Depends on what news flows arise etc.

Yes Magic, there will be a fair chunk of churn to burn through and along with elections next month will no doubt temper the near-term expectations.

2p+ by year end!

Will be somewhat boring for a while!

Should hopefully see some progression from June/July onwards.

Mark time here. Not much can be said or done, other than KEFI needs to progress matters on the ground and move towards production. As they achieve various milestones, the SP should gradually react - this process is known as the Lassonde curve. The following events should attract volumes:

Relocation is complete,

Notice to Proceed is issued,

construction visibly advances,

drawdowns/funding are fully completed,

security concerns fade,

and management finally delivers first gold.

Hi xhita, the exact % is yet to be confirmed. This relies on Ethiopian gov and their spend into the project and any haggles at the end of the process. I know 86% has been thrown out. But it’s not set in stone. Indeed it could also be less. We won’t know till the final t’s are crossed and i’s dotted. This will be towards year end. 👍

I have run some numbers using a DCF NPV calculation, then applied a P/NAV, given the stage we are at and risk level. Interesting output using the following assumptions:

1. Gold price: $4,500 over life of mine

2. Discount: 18%

3. CAPEX: $340m + 15% over run buffer

4: Breakeven costs: $1,400 per/oz

5: 13.75 bn shares + 10% dilution

6. 140,000 oz per year - over a 7 year mine life

7. $25m net debt at PLC level

8. 83% stake in TKGM

9. Saudi = $70m attributable

10. GBP/USD = 1.35

The risk adjusted NAV per share is 3.46p - HOWEVER, then adjust for P/NAV (real world market execution risk for the stage it is at) = 1.76p.

So, the implied share price today on these inputs should be 1.76p.

First production is 5.82p.

Would think a few variables can change these numbers either way. BUT, from what it seems we are trading at under the implied price today. I suspect this is mainly due to overhang from the last placing (which was hefty). I believe this should have resolved itself by end of June. Or the market is pricing in lower assumptions on inputs or higher risk premiums. Time will tell.

At full nameplate (166k per year – 2029/2030) I calculate 7.42p.

Personally, I am holding for 6p. Again, this totally relies on assumptions and forecasts coming to fruition. There are also macro factors which can change the results, such as an equity or sector bear/bull market cycles and country specific risks. Also, plenty of micro factors can alter the company’s dynamics, such as M&A activity, corporate structure/management, etc etc. Plenty to think about and to ponder. This company is a risk and not for the faint hearted. As much as one can forecast and make assumptions, there are too many unknown variables.

Anyway, I don’t think I am unrealistic or too bullish/bearish either way. Just pragmatic based upon the evidence I see today. Not shaped by what happened in the past, but looking ahead and taking a view.