Member Info for Target6p

More likely a sell. Still lots of churn....

Good to get the election out the way with hopefully not too many dramas, next week.

Then we should get our year end update within the next two weeks, which will give a very broad overview on the financial and operating circumstances. I will look forward to this.

The SP might move up in anticipation, but much grinding remains!

There is a difference between qualification and having real world experience. But I would hope they can eventually get this aspect sorted.

Xhita, that will be one issue actually - skilled labour

Whilst people look at elections, Ebola, war etc etc, I think the bigger issue will be finding a workforce capable of running a modern mine. How long will it take to train and for those people to become efficient. One other issue I have is delivery of the mill, but that’s another convo.

However, these are operational issues, and management should hopefully be on top these. But do demonstrate the real-world risks with entering a frontier market.

I would add at least 12-16 months to timelines, knowing things can slip. The risk now has turned into delivery.

Just have to wait to see how things pan out.

At the moment, progress is being made.

Hope that continues.

If so, then the SP should be higher in the future.

Still churning!

We have another $15m. That is some more money for costs/over run and less need for additional dilution during the build. But everything else is the same. We know the schedule and again, most major and visible progress will not be made/triggered until Q3/Q4.

As we near these mile stones the SP should front run them. And should also rise as progress is made. Still a slow burn from here and gold will be under pressure for a couple of months as well. May as well go and hibernate for a few months and come back later!

Next Monday. The incumbent should win.

Hopefully no disputes etc.

Every thing is potential until it’s out the ground. Lots of potential.

Open pit, lol!!!

Anyway, good probability of the mine reaching production. Would put it at about 80%. Intent is there, well supported, financed and permitted. Things like security, cross border issues, etc prevent it from being 100%. It looks as though it gets done, but can never rule out an unknown event to delay matters.

Electric, I think a lot to be said about sentiment. The market could if it wants to front run expectations. And that’s what we saw. We know that if they do deliver that the SP is higher than it is today, based on various assumptions. So, I suppose, the market wants to bring the returns forward, but at the same time unable to do so for various reasons, not least sentiment. Delivery will be key and as these hurdles are accomplished only then will the multiple rise from 0.22x. Unfortunately, as this is Africa and given past events the only thing that will matter is delivery. But I do expect the SP to have rapid movements as and when these occur. I do agree with most of what you say. And yes, short term sentiment can change on a whim. Will it be higher in the future? I would hope so.

Electric, as you say the market gets these things wrong at times.

Around 1.55p - that is +38% from today. Not to be sneezed at.

That does rely on gold prices being $4,700k per oz year end mind you. But a fair chance that could happen. Gold is in its doldrums months. It starts to perk up from about August onwards.

Otherwise, it will be around1.43p. (Still +27% from here)

Most don’t want to hear that, but that’s how the raw numbers get crunched.

If it exceeds that, then happy days.

12,400,000 just popped up from 11:18am @ 1.13588

Im also hopeful that gold end the year between $4,500 and $5,000. That would be good.

Things will look a bit better.

Elections will be done and dusted (hopefully)

The company would have announced year end results with a substantial update on progress and expectations.

The churn/overhang should be getting near to the end.

People will start looking ahead to near term catalysts.

For me, Q3 and Q4 is where some tangible action should be seen on the ground.

No probs Electric. Agree. ;)

Electric, I am basing this off the DFS. I am not adding anything which is yet to come to fruition. Like anything expected i.e higher production, higher recoveries, higher gold price etc. 86% or 83% or indeed any % is not a fact until the gov spent in line with agreements and even then it’s still likely that we will see some to and fro, I would guess. We will not know this until year end.

And based on current gold price, 140k per year over 7 years, 1,400 breakeven, current share count + 10% more dilution, 100m Saudi, GBP/USD OF 1.35, 15% capex over run, $25m debt at plc level, 83% ownership = an implied price of 0.79p.

Arguably we are trading above today fair value. If we get to FCF then my calculation is 4.74p.

I use an 18% discount in my NPV calc

Then I apply P/NAV multiple of 0.22x to reflect the current stage of the project.