The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Aim - great detail but... WOW !!!!
What truly abysmal reading that must be for LTHs. Anyone here for 2 years or more would need a 1000% increase in the share price to break even...that's about as rare on AIM as RRR turning a profit on a project.
That will likely grow to 1500% with the next round of dilution which I imagine can't be too far away - certainly seems closer than a DRC payment or a lithium export or a gold sale...
"Judge us on our exports"
Blimey Nike - hopefully 'following' doesn't mean invested for all that time... You'd need a 1000% increase just to break even or likely a 1,500% increase after the next round of dilution.
The decline in shareholder value over that period is simply eye watering but that's AIM for you.
I think neither the rampers nor the de-rampers control the long term share price here... They may influence small fry investor decisions though and therefore these boards are good for reading views and getting historic knowledge on how the company is perceived.
Performance and profit from a company normally does the long term talking... on paper it seems this share has not yet delivered long term shareholder value.
Anyone holding for more than a month is in some way holding a paper loss.
5 year chart 90% down
1 year chart 65% down
6 month chart 60% down
1 month chart 18% down
1 week chart flat
Will the company turn a corner, receive a large DRC payment and / or start selling gold later this year or further dilute shareholder value chasing the potential... stay tuned to find out.
The DRC payment appears to still not be within grasp does it...
Extract from the half yearly report: 28/03/24
As a result of the undertakings given by the buyer, a parastatal company, in the course of the arbitration process, our expectation is that payments will be made promptly. In the case of delay, we would need to accelerate alternative funding measures, whether by fund-raising or a sale of non-core assets, to strengthen our balance sheet and to meet our ongoing working capital requirements.
END EXTRACT
2 weeks later the company announces it has raised £260k via a placing so clearly cannot see an early settlement on DRC and cannot sell a non-core asset otherwise surely it would rather that than dilute LTHs yet again?
Extract from 11/04/24 Update on what raise is for:
Red Rock CEO Andrew Bell comments: "We are moving forward with production and pre-production activities in Burkina Faso, in order to start alluvial production and testwork at Bilbale. We are working to a tight schedule for operations to start within weeks, subject to the usual caveats. We continue to work with the programme and costings outlined in our announcement of 27 February 2024.
In the DRC, we continue to expect a quick resolution."
END EXTRACT
Extract from 27/02/24 stated the commitment was limited to £150-£200k so the raise gave a surplus of £60-110k above BK needs I assume to keep the lights on and pay salaries.
START EXTRACT: 27/02/24
Both parties will be making contributions, and our further potential commitment in this phase is limited to £150,000 to £200,000. We consider that our current resources and facilities, and indications of support we have received, will enable us to meet this spend. In the event of discouraging results at any stage, work on the alluvial potential will cease and Riverstone will move equipment to another project. Red Rock will update the market as work proceeds.
END EXTRACT
It will be very interesting to see how accurate Aimdogs countdown to another destructive round of dilution really is. I personally think it is inevitable as we now approach the 1 year mark since I first heard DRC payment was imminent.
Was just about to post this with my own heading 'who enjoys dilution' as the countdown clock from AD landed...
Watching daily with interest and still waiting to ride a rise on the DRC payment. However, if or once they announce that's a dead duck I will lose interest and move on...still the spread has opened up a little today so everyone will no doubt think it's Christmas here.
BB - You are correct... read every single word and you will surely always find the ambiguity on there somewhere.
Then someone witty will explain why they can't tell you anything with certainty.
I'm still struggling to digest RRR stating DRC payment being 'days away' (imminent) and those on here justifying it saying days can be any number from 2 up-to infinity.
If this is not misleading the I don't know what is.
The only thing that is ever seemingly nailed on with certainty is the amount of dilution and at what price...come to think of it another dilution train should be arriving at the station soon shouldn't it. The c.£220k must be drying up with all the needed activity and ongoing costs whilst incurring delays in equipment arrival.
Even a small team should be able to juggle a small scale export to keep the cash flowing.
RRR have boasted they have already proven the concept of exports and therefore would not be chartering new territory - pardon the pun.
The only thing they never did was put the cargo in the container at load port which I know is child's play. Once in containers they can forget about it for another c. 3 weeks while en-route to China.
Cash would then likely arrive just as the last c.£200k is running dry which would support the potential transformative business elsewhere. It must take just as much energy continually organising fund raises via dilution so would be good to see the company take a new approach.
They have a consultant on the books in DL with years of experience - what is his role in all of this? Surely someone can spend a few hours drafting up a sale and export to help keep the company going for another couple of months without another round of dilution. If they can't then maybe this is more of a tin pot outfit than I thought.
If they can't multitask then I assume the DRC is dead duck for now too...How busy is Barry in the DRC?
Would be good to heat test all reading if any willing to share...
Do you have confidence in RRR still?
Are you averaging down regularly if invested?
Would be nice to hear others strategy / exit / entry points?
Average price and time holding if not too personal
Spec - you are in good company - seemingly everyone invested in this company (even those that took the last placing) are underwater.
It seems you only make money from RRR if you're actually employed by RRR.
Yet this could rise 40% tomorrow and everyone would be buzzing but very few would even be at break even...madness.
Anyone got any idea when we can expect to ride an 'imminent' 'days away' DRC payment spike - I can't be the only one getting bored of waiting...
BB - Seems this share only goes in one direction - Is RRR nearing the point where the last one out can turn the lights off???
The future raises at these levels will now surely be so destructive to LTH or even newbies buying in today that there appears to be very little enticement to even take a punt without concrete, company defining news.
I'm thinking most still hanging on to what little investment remains here are now firmly in the requirement of 50-400%+ increases just to get out at break even.
I mean seriously - why would anyone punt on this now given the lack of cash and the track record of raises?
How on earth does a CEO stay in position so long with this kind of record?
How do some investors continue to explain away how unlucky, poorly treated, badly governed AIM is to justify the drop here - the mind boggles...
...Still nice to see Lithium on the rise again eh, will come in useful when RRR finally flog those 200mts at break even to try and keep the lights on.
Well...nearly a year ago since I fell for the imminent (quick win) DRC payment. Shame on me for not researching harder in the first place. Price at its lowest meaning absolutely no one invested on this board (possibly barring helpful) is in profit - If I'd held my position would have dropped another 30% (just crazy).
Anyway for all those still invested here and underwater or those watching on the side-lines what do we think is next for RRR:
1: DRC Payment
2: Gold sales ex-Burkina Faso or other
3: Royalty payments received
4: Elephant IPO
5: 200mts+ Lithium Sale
6: Non-core asset sale to support balance sheet
7: Large scale Director Purchases (over £20k per person)
8: Another project thread (possibly DL related)
9: Shareholder Dilution
10: Share dilution & consolidation (to attract the larger scale investor blah blah blah)
11: Price / spread to drop beneath 0.05
12: Price / spread to rise above 0.06
some tongue in cheek extras...
13: Helpful will spam the board with irrelevant links to neighbours, gold and lithium prices
14: Dukey donates something to someone to stop Helpful mentioning it
15: Maidit admits this is the worst investment he/she has ever made and held on to
16: News admits he/she is firmly double digit % underwater like everyone else
17: A meaningful (non-Reach) RNS
Feel free to pick as many as you like - add your own, add timeframes on delivery etc. Hopefully even AB will log in and have a go himself.
Sadly no prizes for the winners on this one...just a bit of fun before the BH weekend.
And of course, full disclosure I'm still watching for number 1 to come home 'imminently' as an outsider (I think probably the odds are 250-1 at the min though).
News...reference your comment on 99% loss.
It's easy to judge others but what is your strategy if RRR fails to deliver and at what point of % loss are you going to exit your investment if it occurs?
I imagine you are definitely into double digit % loss already?
News - I'll try to reply to your post (possibly question) directed at me but in all honesty your posts are sometimes hard to digest due to the layout, they do not flow easily.
I believe you are querying my investments???
Yes I am still invested in ECR. I will look to add some more there if it drops under .30 but will look to sell the lot if it drops to 0.25 (my BE).
I only normally like to have small holdings in one AIM stock at a time due to the risk they pose. I don't like holding AIM for long periods either.
I took a position in Prudential earlier this week at 689 as a value trade and now have moved my stop loss to 710 - had hoped for close above 722 today which appears to have now become resistance but will see what next week brings. I have positions in other companies too, mainly financials.
I have stated I will likely buy in here on solid news only... Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me approach.
My posts on this company are presently on the negative side as apposed to yours, helpfuls, Maidits on the positive side - as I've outlined it is balance.
Those reading in can make there own judgement before investing and sometimes reading through past or present investor sentiment helps with decision making as opposed to reading RNS's which you must admit are always very cleverly worded to insinuate but never ever commit to actual delivery dates... 'HOPE' / 'EXPECT' etc. Hence why they are now mainly on REACH releases.
If the so called current 'bashers' were not here to post and it was just you, helpful and maidit in here the last 6 months then you would only have a new set of disgruntled underwater bashers posting. Ultimately, it is the company that creates the poor sentiment, the bashers are a bi-product of failure to launch. Reverse the sentiment, deliver something and the bashers will convert. Fail to deliver and the bashers grow in number - it's that simple.
As they say...DYOR, good weekend to you.
News - I don't actually care what the price is at the time of any future buy in so I'm not here to try and drop the price.
I expect the stock price will likely rise on the company delivering on any one of three threads - gold, lithium or DRC payment. I'm interested in riding a short wave on any of them but preferably the DRC which as outlined by the company numerous times should be close.
I will continue to highlight why I would not punt on this company beforehand though just as you continue to spout why it is so good. It's called balance.
I understand and sympathise that your RRR investment is currently in the red (we've all been there or are still there) and maybe this is blinkering your view - who knows.
p.s where is that report AB stated we should have HOPED to have had from team on the ground in Faso in the last REACH RNS by 10/04/24...another missed target?
Better to under-promise and over-deliver rather than the other way around I find.
Robins -you've asked maidit but I'll answer as a potential punter myself.
My view is this company dilutes more than water and therefore no one new is going to buy in when RRR probably has about 2-3 months of funds before they need to dilute again and they never hit a timeline or deliver on a strategy... no lithium sales, no asset disposals...just the tried and tested shareholder dilution over and over.
To BB's earlier point - equipment was going to be flown in - RRR must be the only company that can charter a plane to stay in the air over a week (this is tongue in cheek humour News before you comment).
It's ridiculous to think that the illegals in Faso have made more profit out of RRR than the shareholders.
I'll possibly buy in as a short term hold when something concrete proves the downward trend wrong such as -' we have gold to sell' or 'we have sold lithium' or 'we have just received a fat cheque from the DRC'. There can't be many mugs left ready to fall for another REACH RNS or a weak as p**s fluffy stockbox interview but who knows.
This company needs to finally deliver or the gravy train may finally come to an end.
Noticed this whilst researching Prudential... Not sure how much influence BB has on markets.
https://www.britishbulls.com/SignalPage.aspx?lang=en&Ticker=RRR.L
DYOR
Thanks for link helpful - just watched it. Mcap at the time £7m and share price 0.55... a 90% fall in 2 years which now needs a c.1000% rise to get it back to that share price or a c.300% rise to get it back to that mcap... crazy for anyone invested back then that hasn't exited or averaged down.
I'm still interested to ride a wave on this one though at some point - I just clearly got my timing on entry very wrong originally.
Helpful - what is the bit I am missing on Faso then please. If costs are $300-500 and start-up costs only £260k to start producing revenue and with a quick turnaround - why has this project not been top of the agenda for years as the returns would definitely have been profitable given gold price over last decade?
Has there been a licence issue or something else which kept this on the backburner?
So is alluvial mining only profitable if gold is above $2100?
I suppose I am more specifically asking why they have only just decided to start this project rather than start it years ago when price was stable around $1800-2000 range if it only ever needed £260k to get it going to generate cash flow?
Would be good to know as we now know where lithium needs to be to make money so would be good to have the expectations on gold too.
Does it not seem strange that with 'F****ng gold everywhere' (to quote RRR tweet) and kit arriving within days to start production that only £240 has traded hands today.
An AIM share with a valuation around £2m about to start maiden gold production when gold is priced around it's highest on record and no one seems interested.
Plus they have a multi-million pound DRC payment which they believe is days away / imminent and also a nice supply of lithium for when the price is right to sell with Chinese buyers possibly lined up too.
Normally on AIM, the share price starts moving on the hype alone... RRR is incredibly flat lately and its not for lack of volume, I look daily at £10k trade and can be easily filled if wanted which is reassuring as I do think a share spike following an intraday DRC RNS could still be ridden for profit as it seems nothing else will move this share upward.