Member Info for TakingMyTime

Hi, Speedy. Yes, I could see NCM buying a stake in GGP. Everything we've seen from them seems to be saying to others (Barrick, etc), "Keep out." Buying a stake matches that behaviour, though I don't necessarily think they will.

There's a difference between paying a little more for a 10% stake, and paying more for the whole thing. That would surprise me very much.

Bamps, you're on fire today. I see what you are saying and it looks sound to me.

Jerry, fair point. The deal was definitely a win-win. And you are correct that the original farm-in simply didn't anticipate how big this would be. (Every time I post that I wonder why anyone who doesn't have to would sell these shares, LOL.)

I also think if they had said, 'Let's solve it all by buying you,' (or, 'by buying your share of Hav') that they'd have got a better back then than they will a year from now. And I think they knew that.

Again, I'm happy to be proved wrong. I'm also happy to see production generate dividends that support a SP of 100p. Those who want to hold and collect the dividends will, those who want £1 / share will take it.

Time will tell. One thing I'm sure of -- today's SP doesn't reflect future value, for those willing to wait.

@Jambo "If NC are looking to take GGP they will strike IMO as early and as fairly as possible. "

This is 100% true. They won't look to rip off GGP shareholders but they will also want to strike "as early as possible" to keep the price down for their own shareholders. Why would they wait until the SP is 50p, and they have to pay 90-100p per share? Why not strike earlier?

And that brings us to the question I keep asking and no one has given an answer that I have seen:
If NCM wants to buy GGP why would they have provided financing when, if they didn't, GGP might have been over a barrel?

If our SP goes to 40-50p this year, it will be because NCM propped us up. They gave us the financing when financing could have been difficult or expensive. They went into a Juri JV with us which, with luck, could put a rocket under our SP by the summer. They've pushed ahead at lightning speed when the least little slowdown, while perhaps expensive to them, could have been deadly to us. If our SP doubles this year, it's because NCM facilitated it.

That makes no sense if they currently intend to buy it. I can just see Sandeep trying to explain to his board why he's done these deals and them asking, "Wasn't that incredibly stupid since we're planning to buy them, or at least buy their share of Hav?" And Sandeep says, "Oops, sorry, guys!"

It doesn't make sense. I know Steve T is very, very smart but NCM's recent behaviour very clearly suggests they are not currently intending to buy either GGP or our 25% of Hav. If they were planning that, they wouldn't have done what they've done. It is their actions that have driven the cost up to do those things and it was easily foreseeable that it would drive the cost up.

I don't believe a buyout is planned by NCM. They may be ready to act if a raider comes in but that's not their current intent. Everything they've done says, "We aren't planning to buy you but we do want to make it harder for anyone else to do so. We are very happy with your independence."

That's where I sit until one of two things happen:
1. Someone explains why NCM would behave the way they did if they intend an eventual buyout.
2. NCM actually makes a takeover offer, proving me wrong.

The Hav JV and financing deal ended for me any likely buyout by NCM and reduced the likelihood of anyone else buying us out, as well. I think anyone who is invested in GGP counting on a buyout is making a mistake. But for anyone willing to hold for 2-3 more years, I think the LT upside is even greater without a buyout. Whether you want to hold for the dividends or sell before they start, the prospect of regular dividends from Hav production will lift this SP significantly.

All only my view. But that's why I don't agree with Steve T. No doubt he's been right on this industry more times than I've posted on this forum. But in my view, he's mistaken this time. Happy to be proved wrong.

Hey, Dave, you disagree with me and you say so, that's "knocking other people's posts", too. That's the great thing about a discussion, we don't have to agree and we can say why we don't.

Don't think I missed the point at all -- I just disagree with the point some people are making, for the reasons stated.

Good luck to you.

It's used two ways:

1. Someone who has been here a long time, especially someone who has been active on the board a long time. Those people tend to have credibility because they generally know the company better than some who haven't been around as long.

2. Someone who intends to hold for the long term (even if they haven't been here that long), as opposed to the short-term traders just looking for a quick profit, and out. These are the people less focused on the SP and more focused on the long-term potential. I'd put myself in that category, even though I've held less than a year -- I'm in it for the long term.

I should balance what I said earlier here.

Whether or not execs and board members are buying or selling is part of good research and a factor to consider in buying, selling, or holding. If SD is or isn't buying, it's entirely appropriate for people to factor that into their own investment decisions.

It's just not fair to criticise him for his own investment decisions or to say that he has no skin in the game. And it would be foolish to let his investment decisions factor too heavily in your own, because there are so many things you don't (and shouldn't) know about his personal financial situation.

"There’s nothing wrong with folk wanting to see our new CEO Mr Day buying shares over and above his cheap share options"

Maybe not. But there's something wrong with viewing his "cheap share options" as not being skin in the game. That's part of his compensation. He took options instead of cash for part of his compensation, if he didn't have that he'd have been paid a higher salary.

And his career being on the line is more skin in the game than you or I almost any PIs have in this company. He's far more heavily invested here than the people who are hoping he'll reduce his diversification even more just in the hopes it will help them make a short term 0.5-1p on their 50,000 shares, if they even have that much.

People can criticise his business decisions all they want but his personal investment decisions are his own to make.

"Great message but he holds no shares time for him look behind the settee and back his words with action."

I'm a little tired of reading this. His greatest asset is undoubtedly his ability to work and earn income and he's committed that to GGP. Part of his deal was to have share options, which anyone should include in their MCAP calculations, for investment purposes.

He's backed his words with actions. I wish this board would accept that and move on.

I'm well, thanks, Bamps, trust you are doing fine.

"I think all the little extensions like 117 are all starting to add up."

Agreed. 117 goes outside what we had before, unless I'm mistaken.

@Bamps "Drill 117 is intriguing"

Isn't it, though? We're looking to move from "Inferred" to "Indicated" but no one's feelings will be hurt if the resource also grows in the process, will they? 117 caught my attention, too.

It's not necessarily intentional deramping, it might be lack of understanding.

They have to say 'potential' at this point in time because there has been no completion of a PFS and no legal 'decision to mine.' That's due around the end of the year, though there's been a hint it could come sooner.

'Potential' doesn't tell us anything about timelines, and certainly doesn't mean the first production will be three years from now. That assumption has no basis in fact.

"Looking at the sp, it will drag along in a crab like movement. "

Sure, mate. Whatever you say. For the record the SP was 23.375 when he wrote that.

Who knew crabs jump? https://www.earthtouchnews.com/natural-world/predator-vs-prey/crabs-leap-to-evade-eels-octopuses-in-amazing-hunting-clip-from-blue-planet-ii/

@Jambo "No more sharing, they will pay to take the rest of HAV and Scally by invoking their first refusal clause or table a bid."

They can't invoke their first refusal clause to take the rest of Hav and Scally. It only gives them the right to match an offer that GGP has accepted from somewhere else. If GGP doesn't want to sell, they can only force us to do so by buying out the entire company.

This is the one way in which the current SP matters to those who want to hold LT. If it is too low, it gives NCM or someone else the ability to take away from our BOD the power to choose, by simply buying us out. If it is higher, then it becomes very expensive to buy us out.

Other than that one factor, the SP being low currently is a gift because it gives us top up opportunities.

Obviously, for those who want or have to sell, it isn't a gift, it's unfortunate.

@zoros "Hi Red - did NCM ask for Scally?"
We don't know. What we do know is that GGP emphasised in their RNS that Scally is still 100% owned, and NCM emphasised that they still have right of first refusal on Scally.

That suggests, does it not, that Scally was at least in everybody's thoughts and therefore surely part of the discussion?

Maybe NCM didn't ask for it because they already think they've got a claim on Scally due to ROFR. My take on it was always that they did want Scally and GGP said no, but we'll do PRE. Possible that's a wrong take, of course.

I'm very religious.

"And maybe the first 3 holes were put out to discredit said poster, who they had been desperate to identify."

I believe this theory! No evidence, but I'm religious!

"I know what I know."

I don't have to be religious to believe this, at least.

"The discrediting tactic has worked for them."

Oh, yes, I believe in "them" and their "discrediting tactic." I believe(!!!) that "they" would decide which market-sensitive news to report, and which to hold back, breaking all the rules, in an attempt to discredit a poster on a BB. I BELIEVE!!!

"I have sold no shares here, why would I ?"

I believe you. I BELIEVE, I TELL YOU! Although if you think the GGP BOD is so dishonest, and if you know they are playing illegal games with RNS releases just to discredit some anonymous BB poster, you probably ought to sell your shares because things are going to get worse for the company. Much worse.

"There is still a major inquiry into who I am."

I BELIEVE YOU!!! No evidence needed!

"Oh, and I'm not Mr Bronson."

Cool. Irrelevant, but cool, and maybe or maybe not true.

"SWAG will amaze you all"

Absent any evidence, I BELIEVE!

"games are being played to plug a leak."

Illegal games that could end up destroying the company? Sure, I think YOU ARE THAT IMPORTANT TO GGP THAT THEY'D DO THAT! BELIEF!!!

"give it time"

One does not have to be a believer in this religion to do this. One just has to look at Hav, take one's cue from the wedding ceremony ("to Hav and to Hold"), and one will be giving Scal time. But even so, it's nice to have the great High Priest and Infallible Prophet of the GGP SWAG religion make a reappearance! Some of what he says might be true or might not, but one thing is sure, if you believe him, you've taken it on FAITH, not on evidence.

I'm religious, but not this religion. If Scal hits it is a bonus.

I still think the mentions of Scal in the Juri JV release, by both NCM and GGP, indicate that both companies strongly believe that SWAG is going to have a resource that is economical to mine at least, and potentially very significant. I think there are many reasons to be very optimistic about Scal.

But it's not because some Anonymous Internet Priest with Special Knowledge (that no one can verify) says so.

I apologise if some of this has been said already. I've read the RNS but not had time to read everything everyone has said.

1. I don't really see anything new that we didn't already know, but it's a nice summary of where we are at, where we want to go, and ultimately telling us that the market is pretty silly for these shares right now.
2. I think the wording pretty clearly indicates that they don't yet have all information from 2020 on Scallywag, so any questions about whether they have results from the last four holes yet should be answered. They don't.

There's nothing here that changes my view either positively or negatively. This is a great place to have my money invested.

I've not been very active on this board recently. Going through a work transition and it's been pretty consuming. I'm quite excited about it, though. But maybe don't expect to see me as much here, at least for a while. I'll still be watching GGP and checking in from time to time. GLA

"I was also very encouraged that an institutional investor bought 14% of the company's shares this week. They will have done their homework more thoroughly than me."

Just remember, it's an II but it's a hedge fund. They'll make some risky plays at times, and they aren't necessarily long term holders. If we see a SP surge to 30 in the next few months, they might take some or all of their profits.

Undoubtedly, they are buying on the same premise a lot of us have -- that uranium prices could fly. But that's partly based on assumptions about future political decisions and future ESG sector evaluations. Those are very uncertain, whether it's Joe Bloggs or a hedge fund making the calculations.

I like those calculations, but not so much because a hedge fund draws the same conclusions. Lots of other hedge funds apparently disagree.

So we've got someone else bearish on GGP today. Betterupthandown, nice to meet you.

I don't have time to read it all, so I'll just say a couple things.

1. Anyone who is bullish on copper (as he seems to be) and yet thinks GGP is headed towards 12-15p either hasn't done his homework, or hasn't figure out how to read his homework.

2. Anyone who expects you to believe what they say about markets (or anything else) based on their claim to be a banker (or anything else) on an internet forum has no credibility.

I think most people here think I know something about some aspects of the markets -- but only one person (who is barely seen here anymore) has any clue what I do. I've never said, "I do this." I have what credibility I have because I've earned it with the information (much of it verifiable) I've posted, and because my analysis at times reveals a grasp of some subjects that most people don't have. I don't have credibility because I've claimed to have a position, and if I did claim it, there's no reason anyone should believe that claim.

And I know nothing about whether our new friend is really in the position he says he's in, or not, and if he is, whether he's good at it or not. There are certainly some who aren't....

No extension in Scotland. PSN does have some in Scotland. SNP hoping Sunak has done enough to buoy the whole UK housing market and they don't have to carry any of the weight of it.