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Property 1: I vaguely recall £495 mill provision has already been made so this is already factored into the SP. The fear was that it was going to be £14 billion (again from memory). So what the Treasury and Reeves are essentially doing is pointing out to the judges that of course compensation needs to be given, but let's make sure that compensation is in line with ACTUAL loss rather than just a windfall for anyone affected. I have to admit that from my perspective, if I was buying a car on credit, the fact that a dealership didn't tell me that they were receiving a commission would not affect my decision to take out that credit. I would take credit because I needed credit, not because I had somehow been persuaded to do so rather than pay for the car with whatever way I had thought about paying for the car beforehand! I really am struggling to understand how the case is going to articulate an ACTUAL loss on the behalf of the purchaser of the car by not mentioning a commission was involved. This is all from memory from a few weeks ago when I first looked at the shares, so there may be a bit more detail, but this line from HMG is pretty clear that it isn't going to be a perfunctory 'free for all windfall'. It's going to be a sensible bit of compensation for people who were actually willfully missold rather than compensation for everyone simply because the 'and our dealership will be receiving a commission as a result of you taking finance' wasn't mentioned. That's what I got from looking at the risk here... . Happy to be illuminated otherwise.

Property1: The judge won't overrule law. Compensation will be paid. Have a look at the FT article for an explanation:

https://www.ft.com/content/fcba5c39-b696-4e22-9f20-9654f2f40170

"The Supreme Court, which replaced the appellate committee of the House of Lords as the UK’s highest court in 2009, permits official bodies to apply to intervene in cases it hears. Permission is granted only if the court thinks the intervention will offer “significant assistance” to the judges who will hear the case."

Oakie - the FT article is a good one, as it's actually the Treasury (rather than simply a 'Reeves ally' that "argued that if liability was established, then the Treasury would seek to persuade the Supreme Court that “any remedy should be proportionate to the loss actually suffered by the consumer and avoid conferring a windfall”.

That's the key point to all of this - proportionality. And it is coming from the Treasury (as well as the political line to reassure the market). In which case, the Lloyds provision, already accounted for, is unlikely to be short/too short of the mark of the final provision and has already been costed in. It's a lot less likely to be a free for all as previously feared. 'The loss actually suffered by the consumer'.

Longtimeinvestor - sure - it's all grey scale. This is on the darker side of the grey scale, given Reeves as well as Treasury are in agreement, and their argument is sensible. There's a decent probability that the 'entirely' bit of my sentence will actually play out, so 'not out of the way entirely' today, becomes 'out of the way entirely'. Certainly compared to yesterday. That's the reason behind the rise. That's what stock market trading is about. Reading the room, reading sentiment, understanding how things work. I may be wrong but also I may be right. You can make your own call about that. None of us is perfect.

A couple of sizeable sells this morning? Are those the traders that bought in at 1.4? Are we back on the slippy slope down? I can't honestly see any value being offered in the next 12 months tbh. With that on the cards, why stay here I wonder, with even Lloyds bank offering the prospect of a decent return combined with liquidity and blue chip relative stability?

Longtimeinvestor: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uks-reeves-launches-bid-protect-car-loan-providers-mis-selling-case-ft-reports-2025-01-21/

Everyone's been watching LLoy for some time. This is the major risk. The issue has been considerably derisked (ok, admittedly not out of the way entirely), so money is pouring in as buys now. The yield on LLOY is unusually high compared to other banks, so it's a bargain, relatively speaking.

Dedino - that's the news that's held LLOY back from getting back to the same yield as other banking shares. Now that's out the way, the only way is up. L2 is going nuts btw! Lol!

'Any ideas anyone? I'm new so would welcome views, but it looks like a decent (read: above 50% within 12 months) premium on today's SP: My assessment on the basis of the following (1) Trump = I'd say that there is going to be decent projected demand for this tech (2) going from passive to active testing , so on the home straight for development, so there is an end in sight for development costs (3) considerable amount of cash already invested at higher per share price suggesting belief in the market for the tech -(4) buyers are likely to be players who have been involved with the design already and so recognise the product, may have already invested in part and are unlikely to simply just pull out (5) decision to not go back to market for more fundraising was a result of not wanting to further dilute shareholdings into almost worthless with low SP a result of low liquidity of this share rather than fundamental belief this was a loser bit of tech (6) corporate governance appears to be second to none, right? Decent, solid management which counts for a lot as the relationships they've built over the years are likely to be strong - and the buyers are likely to be already known and possible existing 'partners'. It'll still be a cheap purchase, but certainly a premium on today's SP, despite yesterday's steep rise. Grateful for thoughts.

Well, the way is clear now. This is the re-rate. We don't have to wait to spring. Uncertainty out of the way. Considerably de-risked. It'll be nice, and not entirely surprising, to see a finish today above 65p. There's a lot of pent up demand for this share.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uks-reeves-launches-bid-protect-car-loan-providers-mis-selling-case-ft-reports-2025-01-21/

If you click on the 'Fundamentals' tab above, and compare 2019 p/e, operating profit, etc etc, that'll explain why the share count is somewhat insignificant in deciding today's SP. Look at those fundamentals, the way the company is run, the underlying issues and challenges the company is facing (compare 2019 to today) which will in turn point to the direction of travel of expectations for p/e and dividend, then you'll see why the SP is moving in this direction. As a senior IAG exec commented to me, 'Heathrow is a money making machine'. It's that golden combination, with a well run business taking advantage of that unique position - with those underlying (2019) issues now resolved for the most part.. .The other way of looking at it is the company was worth half what it could have been worth in 2019.... .

Ok! 😎 cool ! I think I geddit now… . ;-)

Ed says 'Fintech'. Well, like a lot of us, he's watching FIINU climb... . Maybe he may just announce an early position he took in the company, demonstrating some astounding foresight about AI (in the Fintech world) rather than just jumping on a bandwagon. I doubt it, and perhaps that's all we'll see. I hope not. I do regret not selling here and just jumping into FIINU as soon as their RNS came out. Ah, regrets... .

Longlad - It's a 25 minute long advert? Why would anyone want that guy at the helm?

D9Ber1 - it isn't going to rocket up to £3.50 I'm reckoning, but there will be progress in that direction. It certainly does seem to be having difficulty going back down below £3. It looks like the only way is up ..... baby!

Yoikes!

Barwickman - I'm guessing he's got zero profile in the City. You perhaps do him too much credit. It would be interesting to see him move on as I just think he's got his fingers so burnt, that he's totally risk averse. I'm guessing the PANR investment was sold so quickly to derisk - I bet it was Ed who called the sale. I bet it was his board who tried to persuade him to put the money somewhere. But this is the thing - there are plenty of non-AIM, so far less risky investments out there where he can put his money, even a FTSE tracker fcs (!), get a better return and liquidate if ever he actually finds a capital hungry start up desperate enough to work with him. And really, let's cut the wage bill! I simply can't see Pascual adding any value at all!

Well, all your responses made me laugh a bit. All fair points. Cheers!

I know you have dismissed him to the scrap heap. A useless, up his own backside, arrogant, willy waving idiot, crying out how he is a 'victim' of mean spirited shareholders. I'd like to brush personality assessments aside and consider the company as a serious entity. I'm guessing the NEDs may be putting a bit of pressure on him to do something. The key point is you don't really need to be an 'expert' in a field to invest in it. You need money to invest. We have that. You need the desire to become an expert and consult others. I'm wondering if that is what is lacking? Any desire to go beyond one's own ego about how generally brilliant one is, and refusing to accept other people's suggestions about how to change? Yeah, I'm not disagreeing on any of the personality assessments btw. Neither am I agreeing. I've never met the guy. But it's this weird inability to do anything, anything at all, as someone else put it 'in a bear market short of ready cash to invest'. Oh, that was him. It isn't brain surgery. I took my 1p divi and put it in IAG. It's pretty much since doubled, virtually risk free. He could have done that. It was an obvious play. But he has chosen a savings account in a bank? I don't get it. Even Mellon is investing in safe stocks - HSBC for a start - for some sort of growth. High volume, high liquidity, lower risk.

Thanks for your comment Mat. Ultimately, a board looking after a company like this should be sharpening their talons to get ready for first move advantage in new tech. It isn't that complicated, believe me. It requires a bit of intellect, humility and willingness to make the effort to learn. Talk to the right people and you can understand the handful of key issues that fill the gap in the market. With Inveniam, was it the tech that was rubbish or was it the way the company was run? Two different things. The current run on AI is similar to the run on cannabis related stocks I'm sure, but keep up with the gossip on sentiment and you can make a pretty penny. And there'll be long term winners too. Let's see where CLAi end up after today[s massive leap!

AI sector is going nuts. Not sure why we do not have a position. Is it too complicated for our board to understand? I’ve said this before but again, they’d do well to look at the NSSIF website for direction as there is no obvious direction here. Hence the undervaluation.