Member Info for Takayama

D9ber - Good points. for what it's worth, not least because I've broken my leg and so have plenty of time on my hands to sit around until I get back to fitness (LoL):

1. War in Ukraine settling with a long term peace solution. - Signals are there that Trump will lead this and there is realisation on Zelensky's side that things aren't sustainable in their current format. Let's see what the 20 Jan inauguration speech outlines, but expectations are that peace in some sort of format, if only an accepted stalemate, are on their way.

2. War in Israel settling with a long term peace solution. - It's gone on this long, but it would be amazing if there was a peace solution. If it is resolved, then we'd all be happy 'm not sure this would be that much of a factor in IAG's price as the amount of airspace that is restricted as a result isn't that big tbh.... .

3. Steady price of oil or better still a drop. - Oil is pretty low at the moment. Demand may rise leading to increase in prices, but with Trump, supply is likely to increase in the near future too, especially with fresh off shore drilling on the way.

4. No new conflicts. - Taiwan is the one everyone is watching at the moment. That would be a disaster for the whole world, not only IAG.

5. No new curve balls with engines not already known. - Yep.

6. Assuming demand for flying is maintained or increased at current levels. - Well, it's particularly US routes that are profitable and US growth is pretty good... . Let's see how the tariff threats play out - I bet that it's bluster and setting negotiating positions, all of which will be resolved by end of 2025, to provide net neutral effect on the SP. But dips at particular times in response to news as fears are stoked by Trumpian statements.

Antony901 - it’s like a kindergarten on steroids here. I don’t know how you manage to stick at it! Hahaha! Good luck buddy! See you anon.

Oh dear. Well the quality of discussion about Lloyds Bank here isn’t likely to inform anyone’s perspective in any way that will be useful. I may come back closer to the car loans decision day. There are plenty of pro-Farage echo chambers on social media you know guys. You don’t have to clutter the boards here with your stuff here AND you’ll be around similar people, which is what you like after all, isn’t it?

Gateboy - It’s fine. I’m not asking for a rerun of the Brexit vote. Neither did I whine endlessly like a baby after it. That’s how it works my friend. It’s worth growing up.

JCB. To be fair, it’s hard to fathom why this would go up significantly before the car loans issue is resolved. Once it is, assuming the provision is enough or close to enough, this’ll have legs I reckon.

Gateboy. You still lost. That’s how it works.

Bloomers. And what’s that got to do with Lloyds?

Well Big Bloomers. You really are flitting between being some kind of “right wing nutcase” and a “left wing woke snowflake” if you took offence at the wind joke!!! Which one are you? I thought you’d be made of sterner stuff?

Gateboy- that’s how our democracy works. You may not agree with the system we have in place, but that’s the one we have until we come up with a new system. So yes, ‘the vast majority’. Sorry buddy. Your side lost. Anyway, this isn’t a political discussion board. It’s about Lloyds Bank. It’s worth sticking to the subject and perhaps try to appear neutral if you think politics is relevant. We all know you’re on the right of the spectrum, so you don’t need to go on about it! It’s fine!

Gateboy. I mean you no ill. And it isn’t bad being irrational. We are human and that’s the human condition. But the chances that the Labour government will do some sort of u turn are virtually zero. Sure, you can follow Farage of FB, and lull yourself into believing that’s what the whole of the country is like and the markets will push the government to change, but in reality, as the last election showed, the vast majority of people in the UK want what Labour could deliver. That’s the harsh reality. It’s a massive bet on your side if you’re betting there’ll be a Labour u turn because of a tiny minority of people whose voice is amplified in echo chambers! That really is one of the biggest bets I’ve seen! But good luck with it! I’m sure you make lots of money!

Tbh, it’ll anger them for five minutes and then because they are either on expenses or they’re so rich, they won’t care.

Bloomers - your economic analysis does put you in a minority. I’ve never come across someone who thinks that tariffs will not have a negative effect on economic output and consequently inflation!!!! You really are the first!! As for Brexit, Consensus and statistics point to Brexit being an economic disaster. Have you even talked to anyone or listened to anyone who used to export to Europe but can’t anymore because of the increased costs as a result of the Brexit barriers? . And as for your point about investment in renewables, well, the only pointless wind I can sense is that coming from your direction. You see, that’s not rude. It’s banter. I’m polite but it feels I’m also a lot smarter than you.

So Gateboy, you may be right! Then it beggars belief that you are still invested here! There are plenty of other shares doing really well. Why not sell and shift your money there? In any case, this won’t do anything until the car loans issue is sorted! You really are one of the most irrational investors I’ve come across. Even if you sell at a loss here, you’d be better off elsewhere! It beggars belief that your outlet isn’t selling your holding but complaining about the government!!! Anyway, I wish you luck!!! I too have been irrational in the past, but in the long, distant past I hasten to add!!

Gateboy- thanks buddy for clarifying. Just out of curiosity, what’s all that got to do with Lloyd’s share price? If you think the UK economy is about to tank because of labour, shouldn’t you be invested in something else? Our understanding of how economics works is a lot better than in the 1960s-70s, so every administration now has a much better range of tools at their disposal to tweak an economy accordingly, and as long as they tweak, little harm can be done. The Kwarteng-Truss duo were notable because they stepped way, way out of this boundary. So short of a massive 1973 type oil shock, my guess is that we’ll trundle along. Trumps tariff threat hangs large and I can see at least one person on this board hasn’t factored that in just yet. That could be the external shock but I doubt he’ll follow through . My view is Lloyd’s is undervalued because of the car loan issue. That’s it. So I’m here waiting for a buy opportunity. And you?

Hi Bloomers. Yes, unpacking it all isn’t as straightforward as many seem to think. You’re correct about US growth and yields, so the question would be why would investors not push their money to US bonds rather than UK and German bonds for example - given the threat of tariffs pushing up inflation. No need to be rude btw. I’m sure I don’t present a threat to you. You’re all grown up now.

Gate boy - Well, I suppose you could base your investment decisions and economic analysis on emotions about political parties. You seem rather anti-labour. Let’s see how much employers national insurance contributions do you actually contribute to an Economic downturn. Brexit added significant costs to businesses. It’s always difficult to dissect post event what proportion of blame could be attributed to which factor. There’s a variety of factors that bond markets are considering. It isn’t as simplistic as being emotional about a particular political party. I wish you luck in any case.

Bloomers - sure, the fear of stagflation I’m sure is there, but ultimately it’s going to be largely driven by whether there is an international trade war or not. But yes, I agree there is an element of a government’s own policy in driving growth. How much each factor Can be apProportioned Blame For any resultant stagflationis up for debate. Let’s see.

Darth - take a look at US and German gilts and their price trends. You’ll notice parallels with UK gilt return changes. The questionnaire more about where the inflationary pressures are coming from - Trump has threatened tariffs and the markets are taking that reasonably seriously, and so tariffs mean higher prices for everyone aka inflation. There’s little that any UK political party could do about this. That’s the main driver for the change in UK gilt prices.

JCB208-I’m betting nothing will happen with this share until the car loan issue is resolved, around April? There are a lot of buyers holding back until that time. And a lot of holders selling to derisk. If the existing provision turns out to be enough, then fantastic, we’ll see this fly. If not, then more dark times ahead unfortunately.

The increase in guilt returns is more the result of inflation and pressures in the US and the general expectation of trade Wars following Trump. The markets are expecting interest rates to rise Around the world. Of course, a lot of what Trump says is bluster and about setting up a negotiating position. It’ll pass. And we’ll see that return on guilts go down in due time.