Great news today in gaining 97% stake and becoming the Operator . Is this pencilled in as the replacement of Welch!!
(our current (hopefuly soon our prior) 100% owned operator site!).
Challenger according to Baja website significant project and to gain a bigger foothold in the area is terrific.
Website states :->
'Future Development Project
There are substantial PUD reserves, identified within a 3rd Party Competent Person's Report (CPR) , on Baja acreage.
3D seismic data evaluation is complete and drilling location selection and prioritization is underway.
Development drilling at Challenger has been deferred, primarily due to the continued operational activity at Stanley and Champion. We view Challenger as a high potential project and intend to commence value capture as quickly as is practicable.'
Looks like Mosman (operator) and our man Howard are happy to take this on from Baja, holding a small stake perhaps they (Baja) feel they have their hands full too currently!
Remember if for Falcon, Galaxie and perhaps Challenger in time any significant gas finds accompanying oil is really a good thing currently natural gas taking off 3.28MMBtu was 1.6 only 3 months ago, seems a real appetite for that commodity.
Very exciting times and looks like huge chunks of the recent Placement being devoured!!
GLA
They are financing drills the complaints from share holders over the last year is lack of drills in the ground , it is pain for current holders but hopefully medium to longer term it is a company maker with falcon and galaxie leading to corporate profitability and placings a will be a thing of the past.
Gla
Agree hfb I am wondering if we will see some tr-1 rns those are huge numbers surely representing a significant percentage (circa 5 percent or above!) stake unless it is forward selling which we know is not really allowed yeh right! Mms selling at 0.185 and replacing with shares at 0.125 gotta love it.
Have a beer or two yourself .
Gla
Home bound for my beer tonight flipping lockdown in the central belt of Scotland, roll on a vaccine
Hoping for fireworks with falcon results soon.
Gla
Huge out of hours trades, interesting to see where the share price goes on Monday , news flow should start next week I would suspect .
Gla
1.3 Billion shares traded today and the prior 5 trading days, a lot of interest continues here and no wonder.
720 Million shares to hit next Monday, how much has been forward sold? news to come should easily consume those shares if the recent placees want to sell, but then what if they decide to hold, that is always the possibility nobody expects.
GLA
There has been a lot of annoyance understandably about the timing and the price of the latest placement.
The latest placing price was 0.125 pence per share, only last week we were hovering around 0.15 pence per share because 0.15p warrants had been cashed in by those placees.
So the offer price to the new placees was not that bad against current and recent share price movements in my opinion.
I will concede the warrants of one for two at 0.25 is extremely generous to the new placees especially if things go to plan in the next 6-12 months, they could cash in and make a nice profit with that.
In consideration of timing If we get a terrific result say 100 bopd net of Falcon-1 to Mosman and go into production at the end of this month, how long will it take to get to 900K sterling , not in the next 3 months! would get
circa 100* 40 poo = 4000 USD per day * 30 days = 120,000USD per month take off 33% for costs roughly 80K USD per month profit, so yes 12 months from now on Falcon alone revenue we could get to that figure of £900K,
if we add other Production sites like the Stanley's and Welch production profits then maybe in 6 months with Falcon we could get there, So if Falcon is really good we need to go move quickly to take advantage of low drilling costs to get Galaxie moving now.
If Falcon was bad as being suggested by some and proof either way will be with us very soon, why spend the money on Production facilities and feel the need to aggressively go for the Galaxie Drill now!
They could still be Corporate profitable on paper after Falcon but there is a lag of 6 months of actually getting the revenue to then get to another big drill.
We do currently have a lot of money in the bank as Da-Gee has highlighted but again it may just be enough to cover the Galaxie Drill now however we have Falcon production equipment costs to extract and store the Gas and Oi,l as well as other costs and working capital considerations, so ironically if we fund from current banked money then it would have lead to another placement anyway imho.
Incidently the price of Gas has been going up quite quickly almost at $3 MMbtu now , 3 months ago it was just above
$1.6 MMbtu , So don't knock it if we actually produce a lot of Gas from this field as well as any oil produced, just saying!
So from a timing perspective if we waited for six months to a year by that time, we could be back to costs of 2 Million a Drill if things pick up or costing more than current costs at the very least.
Lots of news to come on results and new acquisition also should see share price increases, it may be like treading treacle for a while in terms of share price movements but the direction should be North if all good. imho , dyor etc
GLA
nice 1 , Would hope that would be explained by the BOD, and you could send them an email with those reasonable questions.
I watched the 1 o'clock news there as WFH, and China believe they will have one billion vaccine doses produced at the start of next year , and Imperial London are looking to start challenge trials of vaccines on volunteers who will deliberately be infected with Coronavirus starting at the start of next year. America not too far behind and hopefully AstraZeneca and Cambridge could be close to approval also.
The economic landscape could change quite significantly in the next 3-6 months, and Mosman could very well be in a very strong position to benefit from upturn in business sentiment and economic recovery as restrictions are relaxed in time by all countries, Price of oil would surely go up as market confidence goes up.
At that point we could be producing from the Following list below:
Stanley-1 ? (Depends if the Operator can do anything with the 'waxy' oil)
Stanley-2, Stanley-3, Stanley-4
Possibly Stanley-5, Stanley-6?
Arkoma (Though the plan is to sell on improvement of production numbers)
Welch (Would be sold surely by then!)
Falcon-1
Galaxie-1
Greater Stanley (New Well? , Duff re-completed to a better producing Zone)
Perhaps with income streams from Falcon and Galaxie , Challenger Well may be ready to commence also or they place again for Challenger, who knows.
If all the numbers were good from those producing assets, the company should be Corporate Profitable by then and in a stronger position to negotiate better terms with any potential JV partner for EP145, They would look a lot stronger than Mosman did Feb/March 2020 when the pandemic hit and I believe some posters were expecting them to have went under.
On next Falcon news, I would fully expect from a timing perspective the flow rates would coincide with the latest placing shares hitting the market on the 26th October 2020, Volume wise we are over 300 Million today so as I say these shares will be taken quickly and the same pattern may occur with the 0.08p placing where they were bought up very quickly and as other poster has mentioned actually the share price rose quite quickly even before actual release of the placing shares to the market.
If you are a short term trader good luck with your ins and outs, you can be the hares, I will carry on being the tortoise hoping eventually to win the race when all this comes good.
GLA
Wolfie,
I have to strongly disagree I had 4 weekabix this morning.
My share holding has been diluted too like everyone else but I take a more medium to longer term view,
If your thinking is short term then I agree this placing has scuppered your potential quick profit if you bought in above 0.14 are was hoping for higher on Falcon news to sell out next week.
Everything is relative to your outlook , short-term traders getting in today are thinking great quick profit potential with
news flow on Falcon-1 to come.
If you in for a medium to longer term then like me you take the hit, look to average down when you can and move on.
What the BOD may say is that private investors approached with a big wallet of instant cash and they saw the opportunity to grow the company quicker like they have said in the past.
AIM is a fickle beast, I have used this example before but recently NTOG announced acquisition of an asset which was producing 30 bopd for $425,000 USD with a placing, and share price increased 30%, We announce a 33 bopd net from Stanley-4 for Mosman for $100,000 USD and does not enough produce a nudge on the share price.
There is still potential here for all depending on your outlook.
GLA
Drills in the ground matter the quicker the better using this money.
Only a year past before the pandemic hit , the BOD were quoting 2 Million Drill costs for drilling a horizontal Well at Welch
which kinda put a big STOP sign on further progressing Welch and the need to sell it and move on with the Stanleys.
Now it costs $700,000 USD to drill a horizontal Well at Falcon.
Get Galaxie drilled ASAP, Duff re-work done , Stanley-5 started etc ASAP whilst drilling costs are considerably lower, in 3-6 months when these newly drilled Wells are producing well and consistently, we may be closer to a vaccine for Covid, economic conditions may pick up and the price of oil will go with it.
Now is the time to be bold and grow and that is what the board is doing, yes pain today but profit tomorrow.
GLA
Placings are never very palatable for current holders and short term traders, however look at where it is going predominantly galaxie drill and another acquisition, growth and expansion that is what the bod is doing growing the business.
Last couple of days and last Friday selling looks like forward selling of these placement shares and these new shares should be consumed quickly , everyone can choose to sell or take the opportunity to buy more or just hold , would rather see more drills in the ground than most aim companies of being static and using placings for working capital only.
Gla
I would hope also we would be going for Stanley-5 . I think Stanley-1 has been problematic since last year where we had to pay for gravel packs etc, it was shut down for 'maintenance work' ever since almost a year, high hopes of resurrection of this well has brought 2 workovers costing 10k USD each (not alot tbh) but has still yielded problems, perhaps it is still savable but we seem to be at the point of diminished returns with Stanley-1.
Stanley-3 and Stanley-4 are now star performers yielding circa 30-33 bopd net each which is 60-66 bopd net to Mosman for a 200K USD investment.
Stanley-2 I have always maintained should really be targeted as a workover we have 18.5% stake in that our highest within the Stanleys but unless anyone knows any different we were only getting 50-60 bopd net in total for this well Mosman share a disappointing 8-10 bopd net , Even with that with Stanley-1 giving us nought really that is circa 75 bopd net from the Stanleys in total currently, happy if anyone wants to challenge my basic maths and read on this.
I would be happy currently to see some more Warrant RNS around this level especially before news on Falcon results to turn those shares around more quickly and add to the cash base for the Galaxie Drill.
Would also be happy to see sell of Welch being replaced with Stanley-5, Duff workover and Galaxie Drill.
Short term trading may be a dumpy ride for those looking for their ins and outs trade prices, for me I am here for 5 years, 2 to go and medium and long term outlooks look a lot more promising .
GLA
Great spot sounds very bullish and matter of fact with no doubts about going to production.
Still feel mosman did not get The credit it deserved for Stanley-4, 33 bopd net for a $100k investment was tremendous, Falcon could be 50/100/150 bopd net who knows yet but will soon.
Gla
Ps Baja could do with putting the falcon-1 photo the right way up unless it is just my device showing it rendered that way.
Share price moving quickly how many sideline joes have been caught napping.
Gla
The share price will push on now irrespective of those trying to hold it back there is potential to double our current production through falcon, and with warrants cashed in and production revenue and norseman money we could very quickly go to another drill , company changing is a real prospect now , mms tried there best to hold it back but the herd will arrive soon and thus this share price will be history , would definitely not want to be out now and some that protest at mosman progress will miss out on results on falcon day coming soon.
Gla
Great news today question is only how much,
As usual games will be played , 10-20 percenters need to be cleared, but this will attract more interest now, got to be in it to win it, holding mine We will be way higher than this share price soon imho 50 percent of this well! , keep the faith LTH our time is coming.
Gla
Price of oil above 41 dollars and the Stanley’s are at a premium so a couple of dollars above that.
Warrant seller beginning to run low And news next week on falcon-1 td and initial flow , vaccines coming soon and the markets will pick up accordingly perfect storm for mosman in terms of share price rise coming soon , only a fool would put a sell recommendation on this but we all know the fud who is doing that and the history behind that fud.
Gla our time is coming
Hope you are right, since the 70 Million warrants came into market on the 29th September we have traded 200M in shares,
since then we have had a fantastic result in Stanley-4 communicated as 33 bopd to Mosman, and we are close to Falcon-1 news and a possibility of a whole host of other news already detailed by other posters, hopefully the warrant seller is done or done soon, so we get the proper rise that is deserved with the Stanley-4 news and fingers crossed all going to plan with Falcon-1.
GLA
200 bopd equates to 33 bopd for mosman an excellent return for mosman for 100k usd investment .
As I say it is the cumulative effect of all the Stanley’s that matter and the next six month production report will be interesting .
Gla
Agree Stanley-1! Has been a bit of A dogs dinner recently.
One failed work over and then another work over has resulted in waxy oil with sand, perhaps we just need to run the oil through a sieve and sell the sand in bags !
To put into perspective have not had anything from Stanley-1 for quite a while (was shut in prior) and workovers are 10,000 usd a pop from mosman.
First real disappointment from the Stanley wells, hopefully it is recoverable but not end of the world.
Falcon is a completely different high profile well, fingers crossed with just Baja alliance that goes to plan and we get the result we need, we can recover disappointment with Stanley-1 by replacing it with a Stanley-5 as mentioned if Stanley-1 cannot be salvaged might be better going down that route , I recall we had to spend money on gravel pacts and other work on Stanley 1 previously.
Still lots to look forward to and we will either be smiling or crying after next week, the joys of Aim.
Still imho see this as a strong buy the rewards may outweigh the risks at current sp if all goes to plan.
Gla