RE: Way oversold14 Jun 2017 21:44
Emotionally, the last 3 RNS statements since May 12th have sucked big time and like many others, I’m hugely disappointed by the lack of decent gold grades and discoveries across the Ferensola estate so far (outside of Sanama Hill). I won’t say I’m disappointed with RM because this is exploration after all (I don’t believe we were misled) and given the size of the licence area, the complex geology, the different mineralisation and the relatively small number of cores drilled in the first and second batch, the chances of hitting gold were realistically quite low. But the results were really not good outside of Sanama Hill. What’s disappointing is that the most enticing prospect: TZ2, has no gold at all, after promising so much on the IP survey (and that roadside sample) and whilst TZ4 has some gold, it’s not enough so far to write home about. So what was a healthy £60k paper profit for me just before May 12th is today a marginal profit sitting fractionally just above breakeven. *and breathe*
Unemotionally and technically, the charts show that it was the long term trend of the weekly 100ema that served up the big slap down on May 12th and price has headed south ever since. The learning in there (for me at least) is that regardless of the news, that’s the first time the 100ema has been tested for years so price was likely always to react negatively to it – and did!
However, on the weekly chart, believe it or not, but the 50ma will cross the 100ma probably next week or definitely the week after (despite the recent down trend) which will make it officially an upwards trend for the first time in years: 20ma and 50ma above the 100ma. The 200ma is a long way off up at above 1.2p (sound familiar Zak Mir?).
In addition to the above, the current price reaction is way oversold and way outside of the Bollinger bands and Stochastic low at a weekly level and this is also true on the Stochastic and RSI at the daily level. The current price is also just above the first high from mid-November 2016 which ‘could’ provide some support and there’s also the weekly 50ma which ‘may’ also provide some support. Whilst the MACD indicates it’s not yet done with downward movement, there ‘should’ be a technical recovery as the indicators turn back upwards. This ‘could’ be driven by the next wave of 5000m drilling to reverse the current downward trend if people are brave enough to buy in anticipation of positive results (lol). So it is a buying opportunity, but one now with a lot more risk.
I’m telling myself to remember that they probably have somewhere on the upper scale of the 1.5m oz from Sanama Hill alone which has to be worth something but which is not yet economic enough for a mine. I reckon the next 5000m drilling will make or break SULA – they need to prove the geological controls to give confidence.
I hope not too many were burnt