Member Info for Svend

IITK Happy Holidays. I hope you have a great time. Enjoy the rest, and all the best. 😎

For context, let's do some simple comparisons:

Long and Short Term Trend - US Index ETF's ticker

1 / 2 / 4 Weeks

SPY -2.28% -5.28% -7.7%

QQQ -2.47% -5.61% -10.49%

IWM -1.49% -5.48% -10.28%

DIA -3.01% -5.25% -7.13%

RR -0.62% + 7.04% +27.48%

We all know who has taken off; let us enjoy this voyage, shall we? Have a splendid weekend!

Tjblowhard, I agree that we are both aligned in our thesis. That is the fourth leg called SMR, which is a turbocharger on steroids when it gets engaged. It will probably be within the next 1-2 years. If not, this government is most literally toast, in my opinion. Get SMR on with it before the blackout lights start dimming the streets, that would be a sad state of affairs.

Tim, SMRs have been silently cruising beneath the waves in submarines for over 50 years—longer than your investment patience! If that’s not a track record, I don’t know what is. So, I think it’s time for you to grab your hat, step up to the plank, and take a deep breath—because your argument is the only thing sinking here! 🌊⚓

Cat5 Ok, this is only an example (Number 001.2025) for educational purposes and is not meant to be financial advice. I trust you understand this.

Rolls-Royce Share Price Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Plan

The chart displays bullish momentum following a recovery from a pullback; however, it is nearing a significant resistance zone. Analyse this with potential entry, exit, and risk management strategies.

📌 Key Technical Levels to Watch:

1. Resistance Zone: 801.5p (Red Line)

This level previously served as a rejection point, indicating that sellers intervened earlier. A confirmed breakout above this zone with substantial volume would suggest sustained upside.

2. Support Zone: 777p (20-SMA Blue Line)

This moving average acts as dynamic support following the pullback and could serve as the initial bounce zone for a long trade if the price is rejected at resistance.

3. Next Major Target if a Breakout Occurs: 820p-850p

If 796.4p is decisively breached, the next likely upside targets are:

820p (psychological resistance)

850p (previous supply zone & Fibonacci extension)

4. Downside Risk if Rejected at 796.4p

A rejection from resistance without substantial buying pressure could lead to a decline back to 777p or even 750p. Should it drop below 750p, further downside towards 720p may be observed.

🎯 Trade Plan – Bullish & Bearish Scenarios

🟢 Bullish Trade Plan (Breakout Play)

✅ Entry Trigger:

Buy above 798p (confirmed breakout with volume)

Ideal confirmation: Strong closing candle above 800p

📍 Take Profit Targets:

TP1: 820p

TP2: 850p

🔻 Stop Loss:

Below 780p (to mitigate a false breakout trap)

🔴 Bearish Trade Plan (Rejection Play)

✅ Entry Trigger:

Short if the price fails to breach 796.4p and begins reversing with bearish candles.

Additional confirmation: RSI indicating divergence or weak volume on the rally

📍 Take Profit Targets:

TP1: 777p (20-SMA)

TP2: 750p (previous low zone)

🔻 Stop Loss:

Above 805p (invalidates rejection scenario)

📝 RSI & Market Context Consideration

RSI at 63 suggests potential upside before reaching overbought conditions (above 70). If RSI diverges (price climbs higher while RSI begins to decline), a pullback becomes increasingly likely. Keep an eye on broader market trends (S&P 500, FTSE 100, macro news), as Rolls-Royce often aligns with market sentiment.

🔎 Final Takeaway

Bullish Bias: A break and hold above 796.4p opens the way to 820p+.

Bearish Risk: Failing to breach resistance could trigger a pullback to 777p or lower.

Best strategy? Could you wait for breakout confirmation or fade the rejection with a tight stop-loss?

BigBadBob OK, Let's analyse Rolls-Royce Share Price Chart.

The red line in the chart represents a resistance level, a price area where the stock previously struggled to move higher. Let's break this down:

Key Observations:

Resistance Level (~801/805p more of a Zone than a fixed level!)

The red horizontal line marks a key resistance level around 801-805p.

This was the previous high where the stock faced selling pressure and reversed downward.

In technical analysis, resistance acts as a psychological barrier, allowing traders to take profits or short sellers to step in.

Breakout or Rejection?

The latest price action shows that Rolls-Royce has returned to this resistance after a pullback.

If the stock breaks above 796.4p with substantial volume, it could signal a breakout, leading to further upside.

If it struggles to break above, we might see another retracement before attempting to push higher again.

Moving Average Support (SMA 20)

After the pullback, the blue 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) acted as dynamic support.

Price has reclaimed the SMA, suggesting that bullish momentum is resuming.

RSI Indicator (63.2)

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 63.2, in bullish territory but not yet overbought.

This means the stock still has room to move higher before entering overbought conditions (above 70).

Possible Scenarios

Breakout Above Resistance (Bullish)

If the price breaks and closes above 796.4p, it could trigger a rally toward 820p or higher.

A decisive breakout would need increased trading volume for confirmation.

Rejection at Resistance (Bearish)

If the price fails to break 796.4p, we could see another pullback, possibly towards the 777p support zone (blue SMA).

Conclusion

796.4p is the key level to watch—a decisive breakout would confirm continued bullish momentum.

If rejected, a pullback to 777p or lower might be expected before another breakout attempt.

RSI suggests room for upside, so bulls might have the upper hand unless heavy selling pressure kicks in.

Would you like a deeper analysis with potential entry/exit points? 🚀

* £7 Pound Salmon

Nettles, I hope you don't mind me showing off a picture of your strong white teeth after having finished off a whole salmon. 🤣

Don't you just love it: 🙌 After 8's next 🤣 it's our significant Ships Cat's Nettles £ 12 destination by the end of 2025 along with the SMR's starting to get signed off on a Worldwide scale. Full steam ahead and all hands on deck please, Onward and Upwards.

https://media0.giphy.com/media/R9z50rPINd5ew/giphy.mp4?cid=9191ed4cnk8ccgjgx114c270si4qxca417qz51ky82ru8xz8&ep=v1_gifs_gifId&rid=giphy.mp4&ct=g

Tjblowhard, I wholeheartedly concur and emphasise that while goals are important, the journey to achieving them and the experiences along the way are often more valuable than the outcome itself. So far, this voyage, which in my case commenced in the beginning in 1987, has been far from linear; however, there have now been eight outright consecutive breakouts in the recent quarters leading up to my retirement, with the first dividend on schedule for payment after 5 years of abstention. This was a pre-scheduled retirement voyage that had been planned some time ago.

https://f1-e.rt.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeTrading_PT/display_chartimage.phtml?name=h2gvuuoyw1qng4kmrfr5e7ljm&type=png&purpose=mail

Hi Bigbadboy0228, As the saying goes, a picture speaks a 1000 words. Please look at the attached 4-hour chart and let me know if you can see the red line across the top @805 ok?

https://f1-e.rt.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeTrading_PT/display_chartimage.phtml?name=m41ypcdzua2ddez9fk189zhpx&type=png&purpose=mail

The next impending resistance is situated at approximately the 805 level, and once the price surpasses this level, the sky above is limitless. To break out of the current weekly inside bar, a weekly close above 801.4 is required. Enjoy the voyage 🚢

Livepari4 Ah, tree shaking—the market's equivalent of a sneaky pickpocket luring out weak hands before making a run for it! And when it comes to Rolls-Royce's share price, the big money movers seem to have mastered the art of violent turbulence, shaking out retail investors like loose change in an F1 jet engine test.

A Captain’s Take on Tree Shaking at Rolls-Royce 🚢💨

Picture this: The ship is sailing smoothly, Rolls-Royce is climbing, and then—BAM!—out of nowhere, a sudden mysterious drop sends everyone scrambling. The weak hands panic, lifeboats are deployed, and stop-losses get triggered left and right. Meanwhile, the market makers and deep-pocketed funds are standing by, nets in hand, ready to scoop up all the cheap shares from the poor souls who got tricked into bailing out.

And then—just as fast as it fell—the price miraculously recovers, the ship steadies, and the institutions toast another successful harvest of discounted RR shares.

Lessons from the Shaken Tree

Stay calm if you're holding Rolls-Royce and the price suddenly tanks for no reason. Chances are, it's just the market testing who has diamond hands and who has paper sails.

The real turbulence happens before takeoff. When a jet engine (or a stock) shakes, it's usually building up for liftoff, not a crash.

MMs and algos love drama. The best way to beat the shake is not to react emotionally—buy more if it makes sense or hold steady.

So, if you see Rolls-Royce dipping suddenly for no fundamental reason, don’t panic—it’s just the captain testing the crew. Hold your course, and let the weak hands feed the sharks. 🦈📈

Peakdread A hugely oversold RSI (Relative Strength Index) can be a bit of both—impending doom or heavenly riches—depending on the context!

When it Signals Impending Doom ☠️

Downtrend Confirmation: If RSI stays oversold (below 30, or even lower, like 20) and price keeps falling, it can mean the stock or index is in freefall with no immediate relief.

Fundamental Issues: If the decline is driven by real-world problems (earnings misses, economic downturns, significant policy risks), the oversold RSI might be a trap rather than a buy signal.

Bear Market Continuation: In bear markets, RSI can stay oversold for longer than expected, and "cheap" can get even cheaper.

When it Signals Heavenly Riches 💰

Reversal Potential: If RSI drops below 25 or 20 but starts curling back up, it often signals a strong bounce or complete reversal.

Capitulation & Buy Zones: When extreme RSI levels coincide with strong support zones, institutional buyers may step in, leading to big rebounds.

Bull Market Dips: In uptrends, an RSI dip into oversold territory is often a great buying opportunity, mainly if supported by volume or key moving averages.

Conclusion: Context is King

A massively oversold RSI can either mean you're about to catch a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity or you'll get steamrolled by a deeper decline. Always check volume, trend direction, and fundamentals before assuming it’s time to buy! 🚀📉

Peakdread, That’s a well-thought-out perspective, and I appreciate the optimism! The market is driven by a mix of policy decisions, geopolitical developments, and investor sentiment, so if either of your predictions materializes, it could provide some much-needed stability and confidence.

I agree that Trump reversing tariffs (or at least softening their impact) would be a major market catalyst, given how sensitive equities are to trade policies. As for Russia and Ukraine, a ceasefire would be a game-changer, not just for markets but for global stability overall. The situation is complex, but you’re absolutely right—Ukraine has proven incredibly resourceful, and Russia’s internal struggles can’t be ignored.

Short-term recoveries often hinge on precisely these shifts, so I like your reasoning. Here’s to hoping things play out in a way that benefits not just the markets but the people most affected by these conflicts!

Wyndrum, I concur with you. Additionally, if we redraw the Fibonacci calculation to account for the prior pullback of 10.13% from high to low between 1st and 19th April 2024, it reaffirms a precise 0.50% retracement at 5558. Regarding the RSI, it currently indicates hugely oversold levels at 16.33, which have not been revisited since the peak of COVID.

Peakdread for some better context, The 10-11.5% pullback range on the S&P 500 is a relatively reliable historical pattern, but not an absolute rule. Here’s a breakdown of its accuracy:

Historical Frequency & Accuracy

In a normal market cycle, the S&P 500 typically experiences a 10% correction at least once every 1-2 years.

Corrections in the 10-11.5% range tend to act as temporary pullbacks within a more extended bull market rather than an actual bear market reversal.

If we look at the past few decades, corrections of this magnitude have often been buying opportunities rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.

Probability of a Bigger Drop

Sometimes, a 10-11.5% drop stabilizes and leads to a recovery.

However, if economic conditions worsen (e.g., recessions, rate hikes, geopolitical crises), these pullbacks can extend into a 15-20% decline or even trigger a bear market (-20%+).

Historically, once the S&P 500 falls 10%, the chance of dropping to -20% (bear market) is about 40%. However, intense support levels, such as key moving averages and Fibonacci retracement levels, often slow down or reverse the decline.

Conclusion

As a rule of thumb, a 10-11.5% pullback is typical and often marks a correction rather than a crash. However, whether it stabilizes or continues depends on broader economic and technical conditions. If key support levels hold, history suggests a rebound is more likely than an extended decline.

Hope the above clarifies and wish you a great weekend ahead🤣

Peakdread I apologise in layman terms:

The last time the S&P 500 dropped more than 5% was between July 16 and August 5, 2024, when it fell 10.13% (573.52 points). Right now, we’re in another correction that started after hitting a peak on February 19, 2025, at 6147.75. Since then, the index has dropped to a low of 5503.92, marking a 10.61% decline (652 points).

So, the big question now is:

Will this downtrend continue, pushing towards a more significant 20% drop?

Or will the market find support at the Fibonacci 0.764 level (5565.23) and start climbing back up, possibly returning to the trading range we saw in January?

What do you think?

The last pullback exceeding 5% on the SP500 occurred from 16 July 2024 to 5 August 2024, resulting in a significant correction of 10.13% (573.52 points). Our current correction began after a classic double top on 19 February 2025, at 6147.75, with a low recorded yesterday at 5503.92, indicating a decline of 10.61% (652 points). Consequently, my question for you today is whether we will see a further corrective downtrend towards the classic 20% pullback or if the current Fibonacci level we reached of 0.764 at 5565.23 will serve as support, and/or the Friday turnaround point for a new uptrend as we head back up towards the January trading range?

DimSwitch12 Ah, now that’s the million-dollar question! If Trump had a say, he’d probably pick whoever promised to build the biggest, most beautiful SMR—the likes of which the world has never seen—and slap his name on it in gold letters. But since this is the UK government we’re talking about, I suspect the decision will be made using a far more sophisticated process… like pulling names out of a hat after a long lunch at the Westminster pub. 🍻