Member Info for Svend

R_P Aye, well spotted! The good ship Market has merely bobbed through Trump’s squalls and now sails again on calmer waters. ‘Tis just the ebb and flow of the sea waves, matey… the compass still points true for those who know how to read the charts! 🏴‍☠️📈⚓️

Do you reckon we’re setting course for new highs, or will another storm cloud be spotted on the horizon?😜

CornishPete, I just did that. Even if it was only 60% wrong in the 2027 predictions, we are still on a massive Turbo Tufan ride into the new blue skies above and beyond.

Seems determined to head back north up to 6000 and above such a favourable wind may also help propel rycey up on Route 8 to new highs soon.

Ahoy, investor! The impact of Rolls-Royce's Small Modular Reactor (SMR) program on its share price could be substantial, but it's a voyage that unfolds over time.

Current Share Price and Analyst Outlook

As of May 13, 2025, Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (LSE: RR) is trading at approximately 800 pence per share. Analysts have set a median 12-month price target of 820 pence, suggesting a modest upside of around 2.5%.

Potential Impact of SMR Program

In September 2024, Rolls-Royce's shares surged by 5.75% following the announcement of a potential SMR deal with the Czech Republic. This indicates that SMR contracts can have a positive short-term impact on the share price.

A Reddit analysis estimated that producing and selling 15 SMRs by 2026 could add approximately £0.56 to earnings per share (EPS), potentially increasing the stock price by £11.20, assuming a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20. However, this projection is optimistic and assumes rapid production and sales, which may not align with the typical timelines for nuclear projects.

Long-Term Considerations

The global SMR market is projected to reach $40–50 billion by 2035, driven by decarbonization efforts and energy security concerns. Rolls-Royce's SMR program positions the company to capitalize on this growth, but the financial benefits are expected to materialize over the long term.

Conclusion

While the SMR program has the potential to significantly impact Rolls-Royce's share price, especially with additional international orders, the effects are likely to be gradual. Investors should consider the long-term horizon of nuclear projects and the broader context of the company's performance in the aerospace and defence sectors when evaluating the stock's prospects.

Quite right, matey! A 20% surge on just the good ship Britannia’s SMR fleet be a touch too much wind in the sails this early, what with landfall not expected ‘til 2031 at the soonest. But should the fine Nordic crew o’ Sweden sign aboard with their own order of 8 reactors, and the Czech fleet follow with their 6, then we ain’t talkin’ chickens nor sheep—we be commandin’ a full energy armada! At that point, prepare to hoist the mainsail for a 20%+ voyage skyward. Fingers crossed, toes lashed. ⚓️⚛️🐓📈🤞

Farnoth4 Aye, at least the chickens get up early and do something with their lives... unlike those lazy, horizontal sheep!

Aye aye, £8 hit! 🎯 Now hoist the sails… £9 awaits, cap’n! 🚢💨🏴‍☠️

RYCEY is actively involved in the U.S. Army's Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft (FLRAA) program. The company has been selected to provide the propulsion system for Bell Textron's V-280 Valor tiltrotor aircraft, which was chosen by the U.S. Army to replace the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter.

The V-280 Valor will be powered by two Rolls-Royce AE 1107F engines, an advanced variant of the AE 1107C engine used in the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey. These engines are designed to deliver enhanced power, reliability, and fuel efficiency, meeting the Army's requirements for speed, range, and payload capacity in the FLRAA program.

Rolls-Royce's involvement extends beyond engine supply; the company is also providing an advanced infrared suppression system to reduce the aircraft's vulnerability to heat-seeking threats.

To support the FLRAA program, Rolls-Royce has invested significantly in modernizing its facilities in Indianapolis, Indiana, ensuring readiness for production and delivery of the AE 1107F engines.

In summary, RYCEY plays a crucial role in the FLRAA program by supplying the AE 1107F engines and associated technologies for the V-280 Valor, contributing to the modernization of the U.S. Army's vertical lift capabilities.

TL;DR:

SMR is the big near-term cannon shot.

UltraFan is RR’s next-gen bet, not a current dogfight.

Electric is coming... but it’s still a tugboat compared to RR’s ocean liner.

AIMOO 🚢 DYOR ⚓ GLA 🚀

Captain out. 🏴‍☠️☕

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But let’s not forget: the tides may rise before the storm hits port. I fully expect news to leak or “dribble out,” softening any final cannon blast on announcement day.

2️⃣ Tender boys at RR:

If they’ve ticked all the boxes (and let’s face it, the UK gov loves a homegrown champion + energy security), this could be RR’s “Renaissance moment.” Fingers crossed the RR crew win the lot.

3️⃣ Narrowbody chatter:

I’ve heard similar whispers… no point chasing scraps in today’s narrowbody race (A320neo & 737 MAX locked up by CFM LEAP & PW GTF).

BUT… UltraFan could be RR’s golden compass aimed squarely at the next generation (~mid 2030s) narrowbody platforms (A30X, Boeing NMA, etc.). This is long-term vision stuff. The clever move is to plant the flag early and be ready for the next fleet cycle.

4️⃣ Electric Aircraft... the wild current:

Some say electric will overtake narrowbody in years to come. I say... unlikely yet. Battery tech isn’t there for 150+ seat medium-haul work. Expect electric & hybrid-electric to carve out short-haul / regional routes (

🏴‍☠️ Captain’s Musings: The SMR Wind and the Narrowbody Rumblings... 🏴‍☠️

Ahoy crew,

As we sit in the calm before the SMR storm, here’s how this old sea dog sees the charts and signals:

1️⃣ SMR Decision Looms:

I reckon we’re sat at £8 pre-announcement. Depending on the size of the bounty:

100% win = +20% ➡️ £9.60

75% win = +15% ➡️ £9.20

50% win = +10% ➡️ £8.80

Peakdread,

You’ve hit the nail on multiple points:

1️⃣ Leak-driven price action

Yes, I’d fully expect the price to creep upward ahead of the announcement as whispers and positioning take hold. You’ll likely get a pre-event drift, then a smaller-than-expected gap on the day. Classic market behaviour when news is heavily telegraphed.

2️⃣ Tender box-ticking

Agreed. If RR’s tender team has done their homework, the prize is game-changing. The UK government is politically incentivised to favour a British icon + energy security. I still rate 100% or 75% as the most probable outcome.

3️⃣ Narrowbody engine conundrum

Very valid scepticism. The current cycle is locked up between CFM LEAP (Safran/GE) and Pratt & Whitney GTF, so RR wouldn’t be chasing current-gen narrowbodies. The talk of UltraFan for next-gen narrowbodies (~2035+) makes sense from a strategic R&D viewpoint: it positions them for the post-neo/post-MAX aircraft (Airbus A30X or Boeing NMA successor types).

Your RR contact’s comment is spot on: entering today’s narrowbody fight is futile (contracts sewn up), but getting UltraFan scaled and certified now makes RR credible for the next cycle.

4️⃣ Electric aircraft wild card

Yes—but battery density and range limitations mean electric aircraft are unlikely to dominate true narrowbody (150-220 seat) medium-haul routes by 2035. More likely: eSTOL and hybrid-electric for regional/short-haul (

Other factors supporting your approach:

Market psychology: This is not just about contract size (£14.4bn potential) but about validation of technology and future export credibility. That’s why your comment is spot on—the symbolic win could attract institutional re-rating.

Volatility precedent: RR has had 15–25% moves on news before (e.g., AUKUS submarine deal talk; major earnings beats).

Valuation backdrop: RR’s re-rating story is well known in markets. A full SMR win would push many analysts to rework their long-term DCFs.

My verdict:

Your 20% / 15% / 10% framework is a very realistic and professional “base case” set of scenarios. It also neatly reflects how institutions tend to model probability-weighted contract wins.

The only caution: if expectation levels before the announcement are very high (say media leaks suggest RR are front-run favourites), even a full win could deliver less than 20% bump due to “buy the rumour, sell the news” behaviour. But fundamentally, your structure holds.

Peakdread As usual your logic is broadly sound and pragmatic, and I’d agree with the general shape of your expectations. Here’s a grounded breakdown of the realism of your bump scenarios based on how markets typically react to high-profile contract wins, especially for a company like Rolls-Royce with a history of sharp reactions to news:

RR Award % Est. SP Reaction Comments

100% +20% (£8 → £9.60) Very realistic. This would be a transformational UK flagship award, cementing RR as global SMR leader. A 15-25% gap up is consistent with historical moves on big contract announcements.

75% +15% (£8 → £9.20) Also reasonable. The market would still price in long-term dominance & future export potential. Likely seen as "effectively" a win.

50% +10% (£8 → £8.80) Probably close. The market would price in RR as a key player but hedge expectations for further wins or export certainty.

Stayingpatient Ahoy there, shipmate! ⚓️

Your kind words be as welcome as calm waters on a foggy night. You’ve navigated the nautical lingo just fine! May fair winds and rising tides follow your course. I’ll be here at the harbour should the seas get choppy again. 🏴‍☠️☕️

All the best to ye! 👍⚓️

Peakdread > Let's break down the latest numbers to the most recent rounded cup low at 568 and the full teacup at 805.71, representing a 41.85% move (237.71). This move was a direct result of the Tariff Tandrumps. Now, the Cup has been filled by a rounded bottom. The pullback to 762.40 created the teacup 'Handle,' and the swing entry is located at the full cup around the 805 level. A simple 4:1 Risk/Reward suggests an entry at 806, with a risk stop loss of 762 (44 points) and target #1 at plus 176 + 806 = 982. Target #2 at 237 + 806 = 1043. AIMOO DYOR GLA

Or said in short layman's terms:

📈 Classic cup & handle pattern spotted!

👉 Price dropped to 568, and climbed back to 805 (+42%) thanks to the Tariff Tantrum.

👉 Pullback to 762 made the “handle.”

👉 Swing entry = break above 805.

🎯 Trade plan:

Entry: 806

Stop loss: 762 (-44 pts)

Target 1: 982

Target 2: 1043

As always ➡️ AIMOO, DYOR, GLA! 🚀💥

#Trading #ChartPatterns #CupAndHandle #RiskReward #DYOR