Member Info for Svend

Nettles, Ahoy, my steadfast shipmate,

Your candour is always welcome on this deck — after all, it keeps the charts honest and the crew grounded. I respect your view on the narrow body tailwind and the potential turbulence coming in Q1 2026.

You’ve been here since the first sails were hoisted, so no plank for you—not now, not ever. We’ll navigate each squall as it comes, and if the horizon shifts, we’ll adjust course together.

Here’s to a fair wind, whichever way it blows. Appreciate you, as always.

— Captain Svend

Nettes, ⚓ Full steam ahead — all sails set for 14 by 31 July 2027!

Nettles, come on, it's only 12 days to go, and it's 'Saba Saba Day', it's Seven's doubles! That's our main goal, sooner or later, £14 is coming with a fair and favourable wind, our treasury should be within reach in the next say 24 months or so. AGW and WP, of course, GLA and enjoy the voyage 🙌🚀😊

Here we go North:

The UK government’s new 10-year Industrial Strategy, unveiled on 23 June, commits £2.3 billion in aerospace R&D funding through the Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI), extending support to 2035. A notable feature is a specific mention of backing Rolls‑Royce’s effort to reenter the narrow‑body market with its UltraFan engine demonstrator.

The strategy explicitly notes that it “backs Rolls‑Royce’s bid to reenter the narrowbody engine market with the UltraFan. This support aligns with earlier FT reporting that Rolls‑Royce is in active discussions for £3 billion in subsidies (from UK—and possibly German—governments) to de‑risk the project, expecting ~40,000 skilled jobs and £120 billion in economic impact.

Hi Nettles, I would like to 2nd that, Cev, well done, Sir, finding such a gem. 👌

I didn't follow either; I thought something was missing in it all when I dug into it all kept coming up so/too rosy that I fell into the proverbial headlight fatigue and then missed the boat & flight north.

Farnorth, I agree, ideally would like to see a close above 9.13

Rycey shares advanced 2.55% to GBP9.09 today on what proved to be an all-around favourable trading session for the stock market, with the FTSE 100 Index rising 0.01% to 8,758.99. Rycey closed 0.37% short of its 52-week high of GBP9.13, which we reached on June 10th.

Trading volume totalled 17.7 million, compared to the 50-day average of 27.2 million, i.e. below the median average.

Peakdread, Aye aye — who’d have thought your retirement plan would involve trusting a chart-scribbling Viking warlord and his suspiciously well-fed ship’s cat? Yet here we are… sails up, mugs full, and the kraken kept at bay. Tufan speaking at 0720 hours > https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002dzfk

Good times indeed! 🐾⚔️📈

Yes, all resolutions passed, and 2nd Quarter production is on schedule, no issues highlighted

Steady as she goes 👍😉

Peakdread,

> A close above 912.2 > Small-scale measured move: consolidation low ~888 → target ≈ 936 GBX

Enjoy the voyage 😎🙌999

Sidi, agree it's the only place in town 😉

Small-scale measured move: consolidation low ~888 → target ≈ 936 GBX

Enjoy the voyage 😎🙌999

SIDI > A close above 912.2 by the weekend will mark the foundation phase, paving the way for a measured advance thereafter.

Dustyslay, No arguments from me on the state of humanity — grim realities persist regardless of who’s at the podium or holding the golf club. As for RR at 9, it’s a small blip in a world far messier than any share price can reflect. Let’s hope common sense survives somewhere amid the noise.

Aye aye, apology logged, shipmate. But facts alone won’t warn ye when the Kraken of Market Sentiment surfaces beneath your hull — that’s what me squiggly lines are for! 📈🦑⚓️

Aye aye — diplomatic niceties or not, when the Orange Admiral says ‘Peace!’ from his golf bunker, markets pretend to believe it long enough for the engines to spool up.

RR at £9? £10? Buckle in, polish the turbines, and hide the whisky — this flight’s about to hit turbulence and tailwinds at the same time.

Keep yer stop-loss under the captain’s chair. Onwards!

Courtesy of stewart4990

''Trump says Iran and Israel have agreed to ceasefirepublished at 23:1323:13BreakingUS President Donald Trump has announced a "complete and total" ceasefire between Israel and Iran on social media.Trump says the ceasefire will begin "in approximately six hours from now" after each country has "wound down" their military operations.Trump's announcement contains a periodic unravelling of hostilities but says that "upon the 24th hour" the war will officially end.Israel and Iran are yet to confirm a ceasefire has been reached.Stay with us as we bring you more''

Rycey, it's time to fly, baby, let's jump into the 9's 😎🙌999

Aye aye, old salt! Wise counsel indeed — the fo’c’sle be a devil’s cradle when Neptune’s in a mood. Worry not, though — our ship’s cat, Nettles, be safely tucked in the Captain’s quarters with a ration of sardines and zero plans to test his nine lives mid-tempest!

Chaster68 Aye aye, Shipmate! I’ve consulted the Oracle o’ Google as ye commanded — turns out the ‘galley’ be where the cook brews his questionable potions, while the ‘mess room’ be where the crew spill ‘em on their tunics whilst debating my tea leaf forecasts. So fear not — I’ll steer clear o’ both and sip my wisdom on the quarterdeck where it belongs!

✅ Competition

Rolls-Royce faces stiff competition from US vendors (NuScale, GE Hitachi BWRX-300) and EDF’s NUWARD SMR.

RR’s advantage: a more compact factory-based modular design, experience in submarine reactor engineering, and UK export credit support.

✅ Potential Orders

0–5 units firm by 2035, mostly from Eastern Europe and possibly the Netherlands. Larger expansion likely post-2035 depending on licensing, financing, and grid integration.

📌 4️⃣ Investor Sentiment: Have They Fully Understood the Implications?

❌ Short answer: Not yet.

Retail & even institutional investors mostly fixate on aero engines, civil aviation cash flows, and defence contracts (AUKUS subs, B-52 engine upgrades).

SMRs are treated as a ‘nice to have moonshot’, but the market doesn’t yet price in the transformative impact on stable, long-term revenues.

Very few analysts model SMRs explicitly in DCFs — most treat them as a big option value.

The huge CAPEX (likely £1.5–2 billion per unit all-in) and long regulatory timelines make it easy for investors to discount early progress.

Meanwhile, the scale of future service contracts (decades of fuel supply, maintenance, decommissioning) is being overlooked in the consensus view.

⏳ This underestimation will unwind as:

1–2 firm orders are signed by the UK or a European customer.

The first UK SMR site breaks ground (likely mid-to-late 2026).

Major institutional investors and sovereign funds anchor projects, providing low-cost capital.

Net zero deadlines make “baseload renewables + nuclear” the new energy consensus.

✅ 5️⃣ Key Implications for Investors

Time horizon: The serious share price impact is a 2–5 year story. The nearer-term upside comes when first-of-a-kind site deals and power purchase agreements are signed.

Valuation: At that point, SMR earnings streams become forecastable, adding stable cash flow to Rolls’ lumpy aero cycle. This could re-rate the multiple from a pure cyclical play to a hybrid infrastructure/energy business.

Risk: Delay and cost overruns are possible — but the technical risk is moderate given RR’s nuclear heritage.

🗂️ Conclusion

UK: Near-certain fleet of multiple SMRs — biggest near-term driver.

Scandinavia: Early pilots + political tailwind.

Europe: Eastern Europe fertile ground; Western Europe cautious but watching.

Investor understanding: Still incomplete; plenty of latent upside if/when orders convert.

Tjblowhard & Peakdread

Market analysis of the SMR (Small Modular Reactor) opportunity — focused on the UK, Scandinavia, and wider Europe — along with an assessment of whether mainstream investors have yet priced in the full magnitude of the clean energy implications for the next 5–10 years:

📌 1️⃣ UK Market: Current Status & Potential Orders

✅ Pipeline & Government Support

The UK has effectively chosen Rolls-Royce SMR as the ‘home team’. The government has already awarded ~£210 million to develop the SMR design through the UK SMR Consortium.

The Great British Nuclear (GBN) programme is setting up competitive tenders for SMRs, but Rolls-Royce is the domestic front-runner and latest winner.

Government policy aims for 24 GW of nuclear by 2050, ~15% of UK electricity needs. Large reactors (Hinkley Point C, Sizewell C) won’t be enough alone — multiple SMRs will be needed to hit targets and replace ageing plants like Hunterston, Hinkley B and Hartlepool.

✅ Potential Orders

In the next 5–10 years, expect initial orders for up to 5–10 units (each ~470 MW), mostly for brownfield sites or near industrial clusters (e.g., Teesside, Cumbria, Humberside).

Early estimates suggest the UK could host up to 20 SMRs long-term, worth ~£60–100 billion in lifetime project value, including operations and service contracts.

📌 2️⃣ Scandinavia: Current Status & Potential Orders

✅ Political Sentiment Shifting

Sweden & Denmark: Recent policy U-turns now allow new nuclear after decades of phase-out sentiment. Utilities (Vattenfall, Fortum) are evaluating SMRs to replace fossil peakers and old reactors.

Finland: Already pro-nuclear; Fennovoima and Fortum eyeing small reactors for district heating and power in remote regions.

Norway: Limited historical nuclear use but a growing lobby for SMRs for industrial decarbonisation and potential export via undersea cables.

✅ Potential Orders

Small initial deployments: Pilot SMR projects in Sweden or Finland within the 2030 timeframe.

Total regional fleet: Probably 3–5 units by 2035, expanding if successful.

📌 3️⃣ Wider Europe: Current Status & Potential Orders

✅ EU Taxonomy & Energy Security

Nuclear is (controversially) labelled as green in the EU taxonomy, opening the door for public & private financing.

The Ukraine war forced Germany to reassess energy security; although big reactors are politically toxic, small, modular, quicker-to-build units are increasingly discussed.

Eastern Europe (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary) has aggressive plans for SMRs to replace coal. These countries are prime customers — several feasibility MOUs already signed with UK,US and Canadian SMR vendors.

✅ Competition

Rolls-Royce faces stiff competition from US vendors (NuScale, GE Hitachi BWRX-300) and EDF’s NUWARD SMR.

RR’s advantage: a more compact factory-based modular design, experience in submarine reactor enginee

MrDC, apologise, I mixed up my ticker, hence the reference to a different share price (114.5), which is MACF, not ATYM 😉