RE: Price Action / State of the Ocean26 Jun 2025 13:11
thank you, peakdread— i appreciate the thoughtful message. you're 100% right that strong fundamentals are aligned in rolls-royce’s favour at the moment: we’ve got improving margins, strong order books, exposure to secular tailwinds (aviation rebound, defence, and nuclear), and increasingly positive institutional sentiment. that’s a powerful ****tail.
as for the charts, the reason i sometimes temper bold predictions with “it could go the other way” isn’t to hedge bets, but to remain disciplined in the face of probabilities, not certainties. technical analysis isn’t about crystal-ball certainty; it’s about recognising when conditions are favourable and when risk is increasing. for example:
support/resistance zones show where buying or selling historically occurs. if price fails to hold support (say 912), that suggests buyers are drying up, not necessarily due to poor fundamentals, but perhaps due to broader market fear or short-term profit-taking.
volume spikes or momentum divergences (e.g. price rising while rsi stalls) often suggest exhaustion, not reversal per se, but a sign to stay alert.
and yes, macro shocks — the “black swans” — can override even the cleanest setups. charts won't predict what will happen, but they often show how the crowd reacts to it.
so when i say “it could go the other way,” it’s not doubt — it’s risk management. we deal in odds, not absolutes. think of it like sailing: even with the wind behind us, you still check the barometer, trim the sails, and keep an eye on the horizon.
always happy to unpack the tools and methods more if you're curious — the only pay grade that matters here is your curiosity.
enjoy the voyage😉🙌999