Member Info for Svend

Ahoy matey Graham, appreciate ye bringin' this to the chart table — it's the mark of a wise sailor to weigh all bearings before settin’ course. Now, to your point on the differing headings between meself and Quartermaster NTC — I see no mutiny here, just two telescopes pointed at different horizons.

NTC rightly notes that SMR Ltd should be a separate vessel, and before any gold flows to RR PLC, the coffers of that Ltd crew must be squared and settled. A fair observation, and one I don’t dispute — if we be speakin’ purely of cold hard profits on the balance sheet, then aye, we may not see that wind fill our sails ‘til H1 2026 or beyond.

But here’s where our compasses diverge:

My forecast of a potential £2 boost ain’t pegged to the treasure chest being opened, but rather to the crow’s nest sighting of the island itself. When markets catch wind of a major SMR contract landing, they don’t wait for the doubloons to hit the deck — they re-rate the ship based on where she’s headed, not just what’s already in the hold.

It’s about perception, momentum, and strategic positioning. An SMR rollout — even if the initial doubloons stay within the Ltd brig — would likely send a signal to long-range investors that RR PLC’s future revenue winds be changin’. And that, mate, can be enough to set the sails toward revaluation, long before any gold crosses the plank.

So in truth, I don’t disagree with NTC — I simply reckon the market’s mood swings faster than the accounting books turn pages.

Two charts, two timetables — but one fine ship we both sail on. Appreciate your kind words and thoughtful steer. Let’s keep our eyes sharp and our powder dry — the voyage is far from over. 😎

Aye Moolybap, you’ve got the wind at yer back and the numbers on yer side! You're right to raise the sail on that. Before the great dilution storm blew through the books — courtesy of fundraisings, placings, and a few survival bailouts — each share held far more treasure in its chest.

Back in the 2014 trade winds, when the charts showed £12.80, the share count was but a lean crew. Now, with many more shares in the fleet, the same market cap will be spread across a wider deck. So yes — by rough compass math, today's £9.99 price would equate to somewhere near £30 per share in the pre-dilution days, give or take a few shillings.

It is amazing — a testament to how far the ship’s sailed since the stormy years, and how much stronger the hull's grown since. The recovery’s not just in price, but in purpose. So aye, ye weren’t speakin’ gibberish at all — just callin' out the hidden value like a true navigator.

Dustyslay, Ahoy mate, that truly warms the ol' logbook — appreciate you sailin' alongside and sharing such steady words. We’ve weathered choppy seas, sirens of doubt, and the occasional cannonball of complaint, but this ship stays its course, charting by data, instinct, and a feel for the trade winds.

£11 may not have docked yet, but as you wisely say — 'tis like forecastin’ the rain. Some scoff at the clouds, but those with patience know the downpour always comes. The chart's still sound, the compass unwavering, and with crewmates like yourself aboard, the voyage is all the better.

Stay sharp, stay kind, and I’ll keep posting updates from the crow’s nest. There’s treasure yet on the horizon.

Ah, reported as AI spam, you say ShareFlyer? Well then — I must be doing something too well. When a message sails too sharply, it’s often mistaken for a machine’s precision rather than a human’s conviction. But rest assured, this is no automated squawk box. Every word charted, every metaphor forged, every cannon blast timed — that’s real intent behind the keel.

So if truth wrapped in creativity offends your compass, you’re free to steer another course. But do mark this: not all ships fly false flags. Some of us are just really damn good at navigating the tides.

Sampson, Thanks

Let’s raise the long-range spyglass and gaze toward the fabled £15 landfall — here’s the forecast from the crow’s nest:

🗺️ NAVIGATIONAL OUTLOOK – TOWARD £15

🪙 Starting Port: > We set sail from 90.92p in Nov 2022.

📈 Current Latitude: > ~£10.00 — double from September 2024’s £5.00 dock.

🌀 TRAJECTORY:

This ain’t no dead cat on a broken mast. This be a clean parabola, forged from higher lows and volume-driven tailwinds. With trendlines steeper than a rum-fueled tale, the ship's heading points starboard and up.

⚓ WAYPOINTS ON ROUTE TO £15:

Short-term Swells:

£10.50 – Minor resistance reef

£11.20 – Breakout buoy from 2018 charts

£12.80 – Unclaimed waters not seen since the 2014 trade winds

Mid-term Fortifications:

Strong hull integrity as long as £9.20 holds

Support cannons locked at £8.40 (trendline from late 2023)

Time Horizon Estimation:

If the current tailwind holds steady (approx. +20% every 2–3 months), we could reach £15 by Q2 2026

But if Ultrafan or SMR contracts catch fire? Accelerated gale could bring landfall by late Q4 2025

📦 CARGO BOOSTERS TO WATCH:

SMR deal inked? → +£2 boost to sails

Ultrafan commitment from Airbus? → +£1.50 straight to the crow’s nest

Defence backlog surge? → Add coal to the engine room

General market storm? Brace for chop — even seaworthy stocks take on water

🧭 Conclusion:

This ain’t a drunken compass dream, Cap’n. With fundamentals strong, the chart divine, and the fleet behind us, we may well see the Jolly £15 flyin’ by Fiscal Q1–Q2 2026, if not sooner. Keep your hand on the helm and powder dry — we’re not far from treasure shores.

Chartin' the voyage from that fateful launch in November 2022 at 90.92 doubloons, our Rycey vessel's been ridin’ a fine parabolic swell, aye. Each swing low is higher than the last, clocking in like clockwork every 33 moons — a celestial rhythm not even Neptune dares disturb.

But here’s the gold glintin’ through the spyglass: since the autumn equinox of September 2024, our hold’s doubled in value — from 500 to 1000, and not in pieces of eight, but share price sterling! A fine accumulation is underway, with more crew jumping aboard at every port.

This ain’t just any squall-ridden rally, no sir — this be a proper re-rating gale, pushin’ the hull through calm and storm alike. If this trajectory holds, we’ll breach the mythical Tenner Reef soon enough, and mayhaps set anchor in the £15 Straits thereafter.

Now, taking a closer look through the spyglass at the map ahead:

The resistance reefs — last spotted around 1035 to 1050 — will be the next test of the hull's strength. Should we breach those with a clean candle and volume wind at our backs, the £11 waters open wide, with not a cannon nor Kraken in sight.

Support ropes? Anchored firm around 940 and 880. These are the levels the crew's defended thrice already — like seasoned gunners on the lower decks.

Accumulation tides — volume’s been risin’ on green days and ebbin’ on red. That’s the kind of price-action ballast that signals strong hands hoarding the cargo, not pirates fleeing with spoils.

Momentum winds — the MACD’s crossin’ to starboard, RSI not yet o’erbought, and the 50-day moving plank be curlin’ upward like a well-tied rope.

Conclusion? She’s still got wind in her sails and coal in the belly. If no rogue waves (macro shocks or earnings mutiny) are on the horizon, this ship’s not done charting new territory.

Shall we ready the long-range telescope for a £15 landfall projection?

Nettles,

Target Coordinates: £100 Billion

With 8.37 billion shares afloat, we’ll need to hoist the share price to:

🎯 1195 doubloons (GBX) to strike £100 billion on the nose. We’re currently cruising in the region of approximately 985 GBX, so we’ve ~21% of wind still to catch in the sails.

📆 The Voyage Ahead

Wind Condition Annual Boost ETA to Treasure Landfall Date

⚓️ Light Breeze (Bear) +6% 3.3 years Late 2028

🪢 Steady Trade Winds (Base) +12% 1.7 years Q2 2027

🌪 Full Sail (Bullish) +20% 1.0 year Q3 2026

🧨 Explosive Events Along the Trade Route

Event Expected Log Date Effect on Share Price

🔧 UltraFan test flight success Mid–Late 2025 Boosts sails +5–10% speed

📜 First Airbus or Boeing contract H2 2026 (forecasted) +10–15% gust in momentum

⚛️ UK Government signs off SMRs 2025–2026. Back the ship with royal coin

🤝 First SMR export deal (Poland?) 2026–2027 Hoists the flag atop the FTSE

💰 Debt trim & profit margin gains Ongoing Streamlines the hull, more glide

⚠️ Stormy delays or red tape, Uncertain, could slow or stall the journey

🎯 Treasure Map: Share Price to Market Cap

Marker Buoy Share Price (GBX) Market Cap

Current Drift 985 £82.6bn

UltraFan Passes Sea Trials ~1050 ~£88bn

First Engine Order Signed ~1125 ~£97bn

UK SMR Fully Approved ~1175 ~£99.5bn

💎 Treasure Unlocked (Target) 1195 £100bn

Contracts Galore, Wind at Full Gale 1250–1350 £105–113bn+

🧾 Captain’s Log Summary

Target Share Price to Hit £100bn: 1195 GBX

Base case ETA: Spring 2027

Fast wind ETA: Autumn 2026

Low wind drift: 2028 waters

With UltraFan turbines spinning and SMRs glowing with government gold, we’ll steer this vessel through squalls and surf until the market rings the bell at 100 billion doubloons.

Projected Share Price Journey To £100 Billion Market Cap (Target: 1195 GBX)

Here’s the ETA's map of Rolls‑Royce’s projected share price voyage toward the £100 billion treasure chest:

🟢 Bull Case (20%): Our fastest course, landfall by Q3 2026.

🔵 Base Case (12%): Steady progress, arrival around Q2 2027.

🔴 Bear Case (6%): A long drift, not docking until late 2028.

GLA & Enjoy the voyage!

Roger and out

Captain Svend

Stiperstones, so very true, well said👌

Ground Control to Captain Svend,

Your signal’s clear — and so’s the trend.

The Rolls are Roycing, loud and proud,

Punching through that ten-pound cloud.

The Cat called Nettles charts the stars,

While traders orbit pubs and bars.

Your screen’s aglow, your brew’s gone cold,

But your portfolio’s dipped in gold.

The engines whirr, the candles flare,

Momentum builds on bullish air.

Old resistance? Vaporised.

Your gains? Fully monetised.

Now brace yourself — this isn’t fluff —

The RSI’s high but not yet tough.

MACD’s crossing, shorts retreat,

And Tufan’s numbers can’t be beat.

So tell the doubters down below,

You called this launch some months ago.

And as your armchair shakes with cheer,

Remember: next stop’s the stratosphere.

🎙️“Rolls-Royce Shares — you’ve cleared the tower —

Let gravity respect your power.”

🪐End transmission.

Peakdread, my pleasure. The wind is firmly behind Rycey's sails at the moment. We arrived 15 days ahead of schedule at the treasure location @ 999; however, as Racel Reaves is on stage tomorrow, turbulence could increase, so ensure seatbelts are fastened. 🙌999

Peakdread, you're right to recall that Tufan Erginbilgiç was openly critical of Rolls-Royce’s legacy civil aerospace model — the “razor-and-blades” approach of selling engines at, or below, cost and making the bulk of profits later through long-term service agreements like TotalCare. Upon taking over as CEO in 2023, he made it clear that this model was unsustainable due to:

High upfront capital risk

Long cash flow cycles (up to 10+ years)

Exposure to airline health and flight hours

What Was Said

Tufan’s intent, publicly and reportedly behind closed doors, was to shift towards a more balanced model, charging more for engines upfront while still maintaining long-term service revenues, but without the historical dependency.

He told customers Rolls-Royce would need to “re-price the value it delivers,” especially with newer, more efficient engines like the Trent XWB-97 and Ultrafan in development.

Has It Happened?

To an extent, yes — but not universally.

Trent XWB pricing reportedly reflects stronger margins compared to older Trent models, thanks in part to its market-leading fuel efficiency.

Rolls-Royce has said margins have improved in recent sales, particularly for engines tied to newer platforms or select contracts negotiated post-2020.

However, most existing airline contracts (which still make up the bulk of RR’s installed base) were locked in under the old model.

Obstacles to Changing the Model

Airline resistance – Many operators are already under financial pressure, and making sudden changes could risk losing orders.

Competitive pressure – GE and Pratt & Whitney still aggressively compete on price for engine sales. Raising prices too quickly can risk losing market share.

Backlog inertia – Much of RR’s future revenue is still tied to engines sold years ago under older terms.

Where It’s Heading

New engines like the UltraFan, if launched commercially, are expected to come with a revised commercial strategy.

In the H1 2024 results, Rolls said it had achieved a 13.6% operating margin in Civil Aerospace — significantly improved, but not purely from upfront engine sales; cost-cutting, flight hour recovery, and better aftermarket economics played a bigger role.

In investor presentations, RR hints at further margin improvements from “commercial discipline”, suggesting a continued move toward more balanced pricing.

Summary

Yes, Tufan did aim to shift away from the old model, and there's evidence that Rolls is charging more for newer engines and improving deal structures — but it’s been gradual, constrained by competitive dynamics and legacy contracts. Full transformation is still a work in progress, but the direction is clear: better upfront pricing, improved margins, and reduced reliance on ultra-long-term payback. IMOO

RA64now > Welcome aboard, shipmate, and a fine question you’ve hoisted to the crow’s nest!

Now, as to the treasure buried within a single Rolls-Royce turbofan — here’s the trick: she’s not just a lump o’ steel sold for gold upfront. Nay, Rolls plays the long game, lad. They hand over the engine near cost, like a trusty cutlass, but it's the upkeep — the service contracts, the TotalCare®, the shipyard visits — where the real doubloons flow in.

Now ye speak of airlines saving 25% in fuel — aye, that’s a wind in their sails, no doubt. But pricing the engine just ‘cause it saves ‘em gold per journey? That’s not how this fleet sails. The admiralty — those savvy buyers — weigh total cost o’ ownership across the years and miles. If Rolls hiked the price too high just on savings, the airlines would jump ship to GE or Pratt faster than a rat off a burning schooner.

So yes, efficiency grants pricing power, but Rolls keeps it subtle — charging more over time rather than stuffing it all in the cannon at the start.

Smooth seas and high RPMs to you, matey!

Peakdread,

''Not strictly RR but I'll hope you'll forgive me (afterall it appears to be a slow day comment wise) .... Is there an AI program / system that has been proved to work in stock trading??''

100% > According to the book 'Market Wizards' by Jack Schwager, Bruce Kovner, Richard Denis, Paul Tudor Jones and my favourite Ed Seykota

With his three Rules For Successful Trading

"The elements of good trading are 1. cutting losses, 2. cutting losses, and 3. cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you might have a chance".

The same rules are echoed by no one other than Warren Buffett and Tom Hougaard in his book Best Loser Wins.

Agree 100 %

Nettlets don't know, but where I am sitting, it's a 100 % full moon looking like a wonderful, nice cheesecake

Thank you for the thoughtful and well-structured response, mate—always a pleasure to exchange views in a manner worthy of a proper chart room debate, not a mutiny!

To your points:

1) You're right to highlight the RR SMR Ltd shareholder structure and its implications. The distinction between commercial headlines and what flows through to RR PLC’s bottom line is important, and your assessment of the delayed financial impact—likely not material until H1 2026—is, in my view, a fair and cautious reading of the situation. My point was more about the strategic positioning of Rolls-Royce, but you’re spot on to bring it back to actual profit realisation.

2) Agreed again—the narrowbody re-entry is more strategic posturing than immediate earnings potential. The R&D runway is long, and while it's exciting to see RR planning for future relevance, the cash flow implications remain distant. Your 2030 marker is well justified.

3) On the post-COVID recovery and shift in investor base, absolutely—what a turnaround. The re-rating from ‘junk’ to institutional darling has indeed been dramatic. You’re right that retail now makes up a smaller slice, and with rating upgrades and resumed dividends, the bar of expectation has certainly risen. I’m sympathetic to your view that unless the balance sheet delivers hard numbers to match the optimism, we may face a ceiling before a pullback, especially if the £12 mark is hit ahead of fundamentals catching up.

In all, I think we're closer in view than it might initially appear—perhaps just approaching from different headings on the same map. And aye, no need for mutiny when there’s good seamanship and civil exchange on deck. Wishing you fair winds on the lithium front—sounds like a venture fit for a seasoned prospector!

With respect as always,

– Captain Svend 🫡⚓

Yes, why not It can then capitalise then list itself and the parent company, Rycey would get its rewards. Simples me thinks

Nettles,

''I say again, everything at the CMD has happened, with nothing on the balance sheet to show for it. Unless the next CMD has something awesome to suggest, I stand by my thoughts that the SP will decline at Q1 2026 results.''

Apologies, but I must respectfully disagree. While it’s true that at the time of the Capital Markets Day, Rolls-Royce had not yet been confirmed as the sole supplier for the UK's emerging SMR programme, the landscape has since evolved significantly. The company is now positioned at the forefront of the SMR revolution, with a growing pipeline of international orders rapidly taking shape.

I have been onboard this rollercoaster since its inception in 1987, and its future has never looked any better in my view.

Enjoy the Voyage

Yes, Cev Mr. Market is turning higher, progressing throughout the 6250 layer of resistance just ahead of NATH interesting 'summer markets' with the added fuel from Donald Trump Tariff Mania, my spyglass and compass is now visualising 7000 incoming on or before January 31, 2026

ShareFlyer Interesting take — especially coming from someone who just made a sweeping generalisation without offering a shred of substance themselves. You’re right that people should do their research, but preaching that after dismissing 90% of contributors as clueless is ironic at best, hypocritical at worst.

If you're genuinely advocating for thoughtful discussion and due diligence, perhaps lead by example: contribute constructively, challenge ideas with facts, and avoid the vague superiority complex. Otherwise, you're just shouting into the wind while adding nothing of value.