Member Info for Svend

Strictly,

That’s a solid framework you set out — and back in the 2000s, those filters were exactly the sort of bedrock rules that separated quality compounders from the rest. Bellway earned its reputation by fitting neatly into that discipline.

But I’d suggest the limitation of that list is that it assumes the sector remains static. Housebuilding has changed shape in the past two decades — not least through regulation, funding models, and the political overlay. That makes criteria like “not in a heavily regulated industry” or “organic growth only” less useful today, because the way value is extracted is now tied directly to how well a business adapts to those external constraints.

Vistry, for example, is deliberately not playing the old Bellway game. It’s less about ROE through landbank leverage and more about returns through capital-light partnerships, lower cyclicality, and government alignment. By the old checklist it falls short — but by a new one, geared to policy-driven, risk-sharing delivery, it might score rather differently.

You’re right that water companies became the bad boys of the market — but the lesson there isn’t “don’t invest in regulated industries,” it’s “only invest where the regulation creates a sustainable model for returns.” Vistry’s wager is that housing policy is shifting in exactly that direction.

That doesn’t mean you’re wrong to sit out — your lens is consistent, and discipline matters. But for those willing to swap the 2003 filters for a 2025 playbook, the opportunity might not look quite so “don’t touch” as the history books suggest.

Svend

Icecool, the JV is catching fire with institutions; they can now gather some visibility in earnings, and the SP is going north of 600 sooner than later, mark my words.

Strictly,

Fair points, and I share some of the concerns you outline – government intervention in the sector rarely comes without unintended consequences, and your Telford reference is a reminder that “capital-light” isn’t always the golden ticket.

That said, I’d argue Vistry’s model today is structurally different from the old volume-builder cycle you describe. The capital-light partnerships aren’t about over-gearing balance sheets to chase speculative landbanks – they’re about locking in multi-year frameworks with Homes England and housing associations where risk is shared and revenues are underpinned. It’s less about betting on house price inflation (as in the last cycle) and more about institutionalised, policy-aligned delivery.

On your wider macro points – agreed, the fiscal room for subsidy is tight, but the political imperative for affordable housing isn’t going away. That, in itself, creates a quasi-subsidy: if government can’t fund it directly, they’ll lean on frameworks and partnerships with operators like Vistry to bridge the gap. That’s why I see it less as “yesterday’s men” and more as a sector being quietly repurposed.

Insurance shares might feel safer for now, but if housing is slowly shifting from a speculative, private-sector-only game into an infrastructure-style delivery model, then the returns profile could look very different from the rear-view data you rightly highlight.

Svend

Badland,

''Svend, can I please ask, are yer talking about this will happen, this week, next month or before or after Santa?.''

Here is the roadmap/sailing schedule:

Target~1> 1140/1150 within days

Target~2 >1200 before Christmas

Tarket~3>1500 during 2027

AGW IMOO DYOR 🚀🙌IV

Strictly,

Appreciate the thorough breakdown – you’ve clearly earned your scars in the sector and I can see why the comfort blanket came off only after a long run. That “rear-view mirror” lens you refer to is fair enough, but I’d suggest it risks missing what might just be a very different road ahead.

Yes, total returns over the last decade have been underwhelming – no argument there. But the market rarely rewards the past; it prices the next five years, not the last ten. Vistry isn’t trying to be Bellway Mk.II, it’s reshaping itself as a capital-light, partnership-driven operator with government frameworks at its back. That structural shift means it no longer competes on the same terms as the traditional volume builders.

In other words, while the history book says “don’t touch”, the playbook going forward is quietly being rewritten. Time will tell if that translates into returns, but I’d rather watch the next act than only reread the last one.

Game on, perhaps – but not in the sense you meant.

Svend

The good ship Rycey cuts through calmer seas at last. Under Captain Tufan’s steady hand she’s leaner, faster, and richer — profits swellin’ 50% to £1.7bn, margins a hearty 19%, and near £3bn o’ coin flowin’ into the hold. The crew be fed again with dividends, and a £1bn buyback be already stowed in the chest.

But it’s the new horizon that gleams brightest: three Royal-backed SMRs, a whole new sea charted, with untold treasures for those aboard. Rivals GE, Pratt, and Safran shadow our stern, yet this vessel’s free cash tide runs stronger.

Catalysts on the horizon: surprise earnings hauls, fatter rations for shareholders, SMR milestones, and fat widebody orders. The reefs? Heavy debt, fickle winds o’ aviation, and rivals waitin’ with broadsides primed. Yet I say she sails as a flagship reborn, bound for higher waters afore 2027.

Nettles the ship’s cat adds: “Aye, I’ve sharpened me claws on the 888 beacon — if the doubters don’t believe this hull can breach £12, I’ll happily drag ‘em to the plank meself. Now fetch me a saucer of cream while I watch the share price climb the rigging!” 🐾

*1140/50

FDF > Once the price clears the goal post at 1111, the breakout sets sail. From there, the chart plots a course toward 1040/50. With the moving averages fanning out like sails in a strong breeze, bullish momentum looks to be gathering full steam ahead.

Strictly, what you are basically saying is that it's time for Vistry to shine and compete with or beat Bellway from now on; if so, it's game on.

Takeaway

Vistry has completed two significant M&A actions since January 2020, while Bellway has completed none, with only a single unsuccessful takeover bid for Crest Nicholson.

We need a little race up north above the Angel Number 1111

Copy-paste? Nettles just knocked the keyboard — claws and all. Pure original scratch-work.

Partnerships & Funding

Rolls-Royce is in ongoing discussions with multiple potential partners, including the possibility of restoring a JV with Pratt & Whitney—the original partner in the IAE/V2500 joint venture that Rolls-Royce exited in 2012

The UK government is actively considering providing state subsidies (~£3 billion) toward developing the narrow-body UltraFan engine. The project is pitched as a major opportunity for UK industrial and economic growth—possibly creating ~40,000 skilled jobs and generating £120 billion over its lifespan

Rolls-Royce executives emphasize that strategic partnerships "at the right time" will shape the next steps, from risk-sharing arrangements to engaging an OEM partner.

The Clean Aviation HEAVEN project may provide up to €70 million in funding through 2029 for ground testing; its second phase may include flight-test planning if selected.

Retirment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBN86y30Ufc&ab_channel=WillieNelsonVEVO

Angel Number 1111 means you're ready for the next stage in your life! Your goals will be achieved if you take what the universe has to offer. It gives you hope when you've lost hope and reminds you that your prayers are about to be answered by the Universe itself.

With 156 large partner buyers as regular purchasers of 58,000 houses, which the government backs, this is a unique and unrival arrangement in the housing market space. Unprecedented government 10-year rent settlements is creating stability and improving the sector sentiment. Demand is moving from 55000 houses per year to 75000 in the huge near-term visibility going into 2026/27. Vistry JV Hestia for the next 10 years could be transformational IMOO DYOR

Icecool agrees that net borrowing costs are declining, and the full year is expected to surpass last year's performance.

The tea leaves pointing in that direction double bottom, above the clouds/200 SMA with a potential TT (Turnaround Tuesday), Mr. Market heading towards all-time new highs above 6530 > Rycey to the moon 🚀🙌🤞IV

Quietly, Vistry’s gone from housebuilder to the Government’s favourite landlord-in-waiting.

Mark, don't forget it's still summer markets with many participants still on holiday; as a result, sideways movement and lack of direction are normal for this time of year. Expect momentum and volume to pick up after 'St. Ledger' day. Essentially, the ball is left on the field to only drift when the wind moves it; we have to wait for the players to enter the field before the real price movement occurs.😊

Hotplant, I agree. Constellation and RR seem to be on the same patch when it comes to SMRs in the USA, just a matter of time before take off.

Sparky spot mate Helen knows her sums pretty well 😉