Member Info for Svend

Hi Nettles,

That’s the key distinction. Any sizeable down payments tied to future SMR deliveries would almost certainly flow into Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd, since that’s the ring-fenced entity established for the programme. However, given RR plc retains a significant equity stake and the golden-share protections remain in place, those inflows indirectly enhance the parent’s balance sheet via valuation uplift and potential consolidation treatment.

The interesting angle will be whether structured financing or government-linked guarantees allow RR plc to recognise part of the economic benefit earlier — even before the first steel is cut. That would bridge the gap between the two entities and could be a very material catalyst for the wider group.

Case in point:

AUKUS is the precedent. Those submarine contracts required staged down payments years ahead of delivery, locking in funding streams and de-risking the build programme. If a similar structure were applied to SMRs, the capital would likely be routed through RR SMR Ltd, but with clear valuation impact and potential spillover benefit to RR plc.

It’s a useful reminder that in these long-cycle defence and energy programmes, cash doesn’t just appear at completion — it arrives in tranches, and often much earlier than the market expects.

Maybe, but knowing Turbo Tufan and Helen in A/C's, I would not be surprised to see large down payments made ahead of any SMR deliveries.

Shareflyer, Five-figure 52p shares in yer back pocket, eh? Careful, they don’t slip through the holes — sounds like the only treasure ye be sittin’ on is a parrot’s perch. If pirate banter bothers ye that much, best steer clear o’ the galley — this be the crew’s tavern, not a silent monastery.

Cev,

Depp can keep the eyeliner — I’ll keep the treasure map. As for a dabble, I’ll weigh the tide before tossin’ me doubloons overboard.

Cev,

A fine treasure map ye lay out there, shipmate. Empire be no mere trinket play — she’s sittin’ atop the largest titanium chest in the Western Hemisphere, in waters calm, stable, and friendly to miners o’ fortune. That alone marks her out as a prize worth keepin’ the spyglass on.

But here’s the rub: it ain’t just about findin’ the treasure, it’s about haulin’ it back to port. Converting shiny resource into bankable reserves, securin’ the off-takers, fundin’ the build, and navigatin’ the bureaucratic reefs — that’s where many a vessel runs aground.

If this crew delivers on them milestones, then aye, a £10bn galleon be no fancy tale. The big institutions and mighty traders will come sniffin’ round like sharks once they see steady cargo flow.

Ye’ve shown patience with the Rolls galleon, buyin’ in at 70p when the seas were stormy. Empire be a different beast — wilder waters, bigger swells — but for those with iron stomachs and a long horizon, she could well prove one o’ the finest treasure hunts of this decade.

So hoist the black flag, but keep a steady hand on the tiller — this voyage be not for the faint-hearted.

Shareflyer, the claims made about NTC's background and motives warrant clarification. A lack of direct experience in engineering, aerospace, or Rolls-Royce does not inherently limit one’s ability to contribute meaningfully to discussions. Knowledge can be acquired through research and analysis, enabling informed perspectives on complex sectors.

Regarding the accusation of promoting a blog or specific financial decisions, such as selling Rolls-Royce shares in the £7 range, these are speculative and unverified. Discussions should focus on verifiable data, such as Rolls-Royce’s financial performance or strategic initiatives, rather than personal assumptions.

The suggestion of aggression in response to questioning appears subjective. Robust debate is valuable, provided it remains focused on facts and ideas. Claims about seniority or post frequency are irrelevant to the quality of contributions, which should be judged on their merit.

Further engagement is welcome, but it should prioritise substantive arguments over personal commentary.

No Sir 😎

Aye, best keep the treasure map safe from prying eyes. I’ll look out for yer message through the proper channel — no need to give the haters a free shot at the sails.

A fine plan indeed — hoist the Captain’s Table upon the blog, and with a week’s notice, I’ll be ready to add me tea leaves or weigh in on yer bearings. Glad to be aboard for the voyage.

Aye, that works well — I’ll happily put a ticker into the Captain’s table, whether it’s here on deck or over on the blog for all hands to review. The more symbols each member contributes, the stronger the review process will be.

May I suggest that each member put forward a stock symbol into the Captain’s table — one ticker per person. Once listed, we can then review the merits of each and assess which are the strongest candidates for further consideration.

Aye Nettles 🐈‍⬛, ye’ve bagged yerself a fine chest o’ treasure there! I missed the boarding plank this time, but credit where it’s due — ye and Simon spied the map early. Whether Wishbone be the next GGP galleon or just a lively schooner, she’s proof enough why we keep our spyglass on these wild AIM waters. Well sailed, matey! ⚓️

M. Market likes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is saying

Hi retirment ,

Rerate ≠ fully valued. The first leg was “survival → recovery.” The second leg is “recovery → quality compounder.” If EBIT margins, cash conversion, and leverage keep trending the right way, you get earnings growth plus a multiple that can still drift toward aero/defence quality peers. Saying “the gains are gone” assumes the transformation is finished. It isn’t.

Revenue is vanity; cash is reality. Fixating on “£20–30bn revenue” misses the driver: aftermarket mix, pricing, shop-visit intensity, and cash conversion. Civil aftermarket and long-cycle Defence cash flows can move EPS/FCF materially without headline revenue heroics.

A 9% base case is a floor, not a law. Your math bakes in flat margins, little buyback/dividend growth, and no execution beats. If management keeps expanding margins and retiring debt, per-share economics rise faster than top line—compounding can outrun your 9%.

“We won’t see £11 until Feb ’26” is a price call, not an earnings call. Flows, upgrades/downgrades, and macro can move this 10–15% in weeks. Anchoring a “new baseline” at £10.40 is just drawing a line on a chart.

Rotation ≠ refutation. Nice trades on M&S and IAG—genuinely. But that’s a 12-month relative trade vs a 3–5 year restructuring. Different games, different clocks. Back-testing a single switch doesn’t invalidate the compounding thesis.

“High market cap caps returns” cuts both ways. Scale also lowers risk and cost of capital. If the story graduates to buybacks + progressive dividend, total-shareholder-return can be double-digit with lower volatility than retailers/airlines.

Positioning idea (if you’re range-minded): Keep the core, write covered calls near your £11 “sniff” to monetise your view; or run a collar in the SIPP. You’ll harvest the 10–12% you cite while staying long the upside tail of execution/catalysts.

Bottom line: calling the rerate “done” presumes the heavy lifting on margins, cash, and capital returns is over. The evidence suggests the engine’s only mid-throttle.

Arrr, the trolleys be at full sail again, racing through the aisles like galleons at war. The shelves be ready to burst, as the crew stuffs vittles into cupboards, fridges, and freezers like a storm o’ famine be blowin’ in from the horizon!

Maybe Mr Market has other ideas once Powell has addressed him at the Jackson Hole symposium

Dim Tim,

In one word, 'Illiquidity', that is, the lack of market makers, caused by the summer holiday vacations of the main investing houses and brokers, is likely to be changed by St. Ledger Day; until then, one might expect violent market moves in either direction due to short and long interest and low-volume transactions, in my opinion.

Dim Tim, me compass be fixed to the north star. The tariff squall o’ April near sent many a vessel to the depths, but unless a fresh storm o’ uncertainty brews on the horizon, this course holds steady northward. Should it strike, though, all wagers be cast to the sea.

All the trolleys have gone on vacation, hence the goods are not shifting at a fast pace. This message was intended for those who do not like the sea or are prone to seasickness.

Badlands, in other words, if there is no volume or wind, the ship isn't moving anywhere, anchoring steadying north of 1005, simply as that. This sideways lull could last for a few more weeks, maybe St Ledger's will bring some wind into our sails—who knows!