Member Info for Svend

Here we go again, the chart points to another test towards 658

The pullback has just reached the 0.50% Fib at 1111. A close below this level could indicate a move towards the 0.618 at 1092; however, the 1111 level remains significant as it previously acted as resistance and may now serve as support.

PaulCy, I hope you closed your short position last week?

Yes, the SP is taxxing at the moment, the volume during the last two months is well below average.

SkaLasNorse,

My pleasure. Yes, the firm heading remains strictly northerly.

The Times reports that Rolls-Royce’s ambition is to overtake AstraZeneca, which has a market capitalisation of approximately £172 billion, meaning it needs to almost double its size. A good few SMR orders are incoming, and 100's are on the radar with the demand for Nuclear having tripled as a result EV and AI revolution.

Have a great weekend. GLA

hi yanar,

that’s a plausible but incomplete take — let’s break it down:

1. profit taking — highly likely.

rr had a huge run-up, breaching multiple resistance levels in quick succession. funds, algos, and short-term traders were sitting on heavy gains. a clean 5–10% trim after a vertical climb is textbook behaviour, especially when volumes thin out and momentum cools. (volume below average for the past 3 weeks)

2. autumn statement uncertainty — moderately likely.

markets often sell first and analyse later when policy or budget headlines are due. any whiff that the smr rollout could be delayed or “re-profiled” to balance the books fits the narrative of temporary risk aversion. however, most serious investors know rr’s smr ambitions are long-term strategic, not quarter-to-quarter budget fodder — so even if announcements are slower, it doesn’t fundamentally break the story.

3. the “scaled-back deal” theory — unlikely without evidence.

there’s currently no credible leak suggesting the government is abandoning or gutting the smr framework. the uk’s entire energy-security strategy hinges on modular nuclear, and rolls-royce is the flagship. treasury might slow funding tranches, but outright pullback would be politically self-defeating.

bottom line:

🟢 profit taking: almost certain.

🟠 autumn statement jitters: possible short-term catalyst.

🔴 scaled-back smr deal: speculative, low probability unless confirmed by policy leaks or official statements.

so yes, a plausible ****tail — but the heavy pour is profit taking, not panic over smrs.

the target price is based on combined estimates from analysts covering the stock, which currently stands at 1233.50 on the short side. a close below 1137 by friday, 31 october, may trigger a larger pullback. in the meantime, the main 4 ma sails are all rising and fanning out their wings for potentially more altitude to come by month's end. the monthly atr reads 73.491; as a result, the current 70p movement is within the average range.

Welcome aboard the good ship Volatilis, my friend — where 70p squalls blow in without warning and the crew stare at the compass muttering, ‘surely this can’t be AIM waters?’

Truth is, RR’s still a growth ship disguised as a blue chip. The engines are powerful, but she’s not yet under full autopilot — every gust (profit-taking, hedge rebalancing, algo sneeze) rocks the deck.

The hull’s intact, course unchanged, and the long-term voyage still points toward deeper, calmer waters. For now, keep your sea legs steady and remember: a 70p dip on a 12-pound destination is just a rogue wave — not a shipwreck.⚓️

“A fair question — though in this case, it’s less the dog and the tail and more a Great Dane dragging a few Corgis through the park.

Rolls-Royce is such a heavyweight in the FTSE 350 A&D basket that when it sneezes, the whole index catches jet lag. Its weighting and volatility dwarf most of its peers — meaning the ‘correlation’ you’re seeing is often just RR setting the tempo while the rest try to keep formation.

In short: the index doesn’t wag RR — RR wags the index, the analysts, and half the headlines.” ✈️🏴‍☠️

“Half the housing market? Now that’s ambitious. Even for this lot of hi-vis desperados, that’d take a full-scale financial exorcism — banks bailing, builders bolting, and buyers swapping mortgages for Marquees at Glastonbury.

Reckless, yes. Cowboy-style, absolutely. But unless they start pricing houses in baked beans, we’re more likely looking at a long, muddy trudge than a cliff-edge collapse.

If they somehow do manage to halve it, fair play — they’ll have achieved what recessions, pandemics, and three prime ministers couldn’t. That’d make them the first government in history to turn housing policy into extreme sports. 🏴‍☠️

It's kicking off next month, 17-21 November, offering plenty of opportunity to present any important new orders, so patience is a virtue.

A breakout and close above 691 would set up a trade target towards the 200 SMA @ 786, and confirm the triple bottom base built over the past 5 years. That would also knock out the shorts in quick succession, adding to the momentum. 🙌🚀🤞

Hotplant, not sure where you get that information from, as the company have stated it's not planning a listing in the USA, see link below

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/rolls-royce-denies-report-ipo-plans-small-nuclear-reactor-unit-2025-08-30/

The weekly close above 658 confirms the breakout; now it's time to accelerate. Put the pedal to the metal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STy1UL49FZM

Grindstone,

Thanks for asking. I bought it when the honourable Margaret Thatcher privatised it and made it available to the public.

Having read the book 'Around the World in Eighty Days' by Jules Verne, I never looked back.

Today, I ask myself only one question year after year: Is now a better or worse time for investment in rycey, and if the answer stays the same, I stay invested; it's really that simple.

Realistically, for +£2, you likely need multiple catalysts in tandem, e.g.:

* UK contract signing + site allocation

* Regulatory confirmation (UK–US)

* Strong export deal or tier-1 MoU

* Guidance lift

If those land in the 3–5 month window, investor sentiment could shift from “option play” to “pre-commercial growth stock,” justifying a re-rating from ~P/E 10–12x toward ~12–14x on forward expectations—and that could drive the extra £2. IMOO

Mystic, many thanks

Rolls-Royce SMR: Feb-2026 Price Map

The UK–US “Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear” accelerates approvals but brings no near-term revenue. It mainly boosts RR’s option value.

Bear (£9–£11): SMR progress stalls, valuation reverts to aero/defence core.

Base (£12–£14): Preferred-bidder converts slowly, no FID yet; SMR priced as an option.

Upside (£14–£16): UK signs first wave (≈3 SMRs) with a commercial model and factory plan.

Blow-out (£16–£18): UK FID plus visible US track (NRC milestones, utility MoUs) de-risk the project ahead of cash flows.

Probability-weighted midpoint: ~£13–£14 by Feb-2026. Near-term catalysts: UK contracts, siting/timetable clarity, joint regulatory milestones, and disclosure of SMR unit economics.

Right – the old FX hedge book. Rolls locked in some very chunky dollar hedges years back to smooth cash flows on long-term engine contracts. That worked when the pound was strong, but as the dollar rallied, it became a drag on reported profits and cash. They’ve been steadily running it down and restructuring, but it’s still a legacy factor that can act like ballast on the accounts until it’s fully unwound.

Sparky,

Exactly – Rolls reports in sterling but earns a big slice of its revenues and costs in U.S. dollars. So when the dollar moves, it can be both a headwind and a tailwind: contracts, hedging, and timing all matter. It’s one of those quirks where the accounting currency isn’t always the ‘economic’ one. Worth keeping in mind when looking at the numbers.

ShareFlyer,

Neither will depreciate? That’s cute.

A CLK Black Series and a Brooklands aren’t some magic crypto tokens that only go up. They’re 15-year-old, high-strung, six-figure toys with four-figure service bills.

The CLK already had its hype run — values plateaued the moment every YouTuber called it an ‘investment.’ And the Brooklands? You’re basically betting that a handful of wealthy eccentrics will still want a 2.7-tonne coachbuilt barge with Bentley-level running costs when you want to sell.

Maintenance, storage, insurance, and a tiny buyer pool will eat more value than the price tag shows. In real terms, you’ll be bleeding cash even if the headline number stays flat.

So sure, buy them for the noise and the wood veneer — but let’s not pretend you’re Warren Buffett with a V8. These aren’t “assets”; they’re very expensive hobbies with number plates.

Sparkythecat

Happy to. A weaker dollar reflects two forces at once: relative monetary policy and relative confidence. When the Fed cuts rates more aggressively than peers, U.S.-denominated assets yield less, so global investors rotate elsewhere, reducing dollar demand. At the same time, the perception that Washington is willing to tolerate higher inflation or larger deficits accelerates that outflow. Together, those factors erode the dollar’s purchasing power and its exchange rate – which is what you’re seeing now. The nuance is that it’s not just ‘cuts = weaker dollar,’ it’s how those cuts compare to other central banks and whether investors still see the U.S. as the safest store of value.