Member Info for surprised

Josh is a regular on cnbc, here's his take on current market and 'attitudes'....

https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/01/21/the-rules/

volatile markets, indices jumping 1000pts or more in a day and then reversing, many stocks at lows and going lower etc...sorting out a value play never easy at best of times, so doubly hard now and with wild rides and indiscrimante drops on even profitable, cash rich and growing companies short term price action is always a 'fun' aspect...white knuckle ride currently but it will all settle at some point and we'll be at 20p or 60p+ or higher if Square/Block gets it act/plans together in the next few months

Block’s acquisition of Australian-listed fintech stock Afterpay
has depressed the price of Think Smart.

Think Smart (AIM: TSL) has followed the boom and
bust in fintech stocks. We picked up on the story in
a Digest piece in October 2020 at 39p and wrote a longer
Blog article shortly after at 41p. Since then we have had 6p
per share paid out to shareholders and the stock has been
as high as 113p, before a sharp fall last month on the deal
to swap its stake in Clearpay for shares in Afterpay.
There are two reasons behind the weakness in the shares.
The minor one is the fact that the swap terms were not as
favourable as they might have been. The major one has
been the sharp falls in the Afterpay share price related
to the rotation away from high-value growth stocks on
Nasdaq........................Afterpay
has fallen 50% from its high last
February and Block has fallen
over 40% since November as the
market’s mood has shifted.
Turning to the current state of
play, here is how the arithmetic
works:
Afterpay share price: A$66.47 =
£35.17
Think Smart owns 1.65 million
Afterpay = £58.0m
Add Think Smart’s £6.5m cash (held in rump business in
run-off) = £64.5m
Value per share (107 million shares in issue) = 60p
Current Think Smart price = 44p

The share price has come back ca 33% in the last three
weeks since the Afterpay swap was announced. Of this
about 15% would be due to the crystallisation of the
Clearpay stake at the low end of the range, with a further
10% being due to the fall in the Afterpay and Block share
prices.

This implies the discount to fair value has widened, with
Think Smart now trading at ca 25% discount to its asset
value (which we can now measure accurately). This looks
attractive – assuming your view on Block is positive. Think
of it like an investment trust: if Block shares start to recover
then there is the prospect of a performance boost.

Broker Liberum note ..
strong revenue performance of $20.7m, +32% yoy (FY20: $15.7m). This pace of growth is ahead of Liberum forecasts and this strong growth has been driven by a combination of new customer wins and growth with existing customers, which we see continuing into FY2022

Bango closed the year with a net cash position of $9.6m (FY20: $7.9m)

Bango’s recent Strategy Day outlined the attractive growth opportunity in Bango’s Platform and Audiences businesses alongside the continued strong growth in the Payments business. Bango’s shares remain attractively priced at 7.7x CY22 EV/Sales and our 260p TP implies upside from the current share price.

https://www.piworld.co.uk/education-videos/stockopedia-piworld-stockslam-jaunary-2022/

48.40 mins #BGO

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1486241601441742850

rns - directors buy on the drop

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1486239778664235010

FY21 Trading Update Ahead of Expectation - Restore expects to report record levels of revenue and underlying operating profit for FY21

https://*********************/newsfeed/article/restore-plc-fy21-trading-update-ahead-of-expectation-1346273

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1485993018213769225

Otus take a bigger stake upping to 11.38%

excellent partnership detaied by Rivaldo and another growth aspect for MWE, this really is a well run company with growth, profits and cash and as stated in the broker note MWE is moving up the value chain....Modays indiscriminate market 'crash' provides opportunity at these prices, so I had a couple of top ups at 62.89/62.90 :-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1485933810646765576

added to holding today at 62.89p.....profitable, growing and cash rich.....broker target 95p+

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1485876547521286148

rns - ahead of expectations -Gross profit in the period grew by 20% to £7.0m
Adjusted EBITDA1 grew by 20% to £5.5m
Fnx generates strong underlying cash flows and intends to pay an increased interim dividend
Broker upgrade target 230p

Hi dc2, broker note just focused on earnings and revenue increase along with growing cusomer base, not that you would recognise it from the sp drop ! lol.....here is the only bit I omitted ...
' overall customer churn remained exceptionally low (at <1%); several customers signed extensions and expansions (most notably JCB) and furthermore; Microlise continued to add new customers like Euro Car Parts and Sutton Tankers. It’s particularly interesting that these wins were not just in the UK but also in Australia and France - where Microlise recently won Metcash Campbells (a food wholesaler) and also a “major international bakery company” – an indication that international growth is picking up and could be a long-term growth driver.'

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1485581597575426051

broker forecast adjusted down revenue by just 5% with upgrade potential when supply chain issues ease #SAAS is profitable, growing & cash rich

The outlook suggests a climb from today's sp ...

Broker note out ...
A solid update reveals that trading to Dec-21 is expected to be in line - both on revenue and EBITDA, while FCF should be materially better. This implies +13% organic top-line growth to £59.1m (on a 12mth basis) most notably driven by resurgent hardware sales (+20% y/y) as trading recovered strongly post Covid. Meanwhile, ARR continues to grow – now £39.0m, so +13% annualised since June. Driving this, SAAS added >65 new customers, whilst also grew key relationships like JCB, meaning the Group’s subscription base grew 10% to 0.55m. EBITDA is also better at £7.6m (vs. £6.5m in cal’20) despite higher S&M costs to drive international growth. The strong aforementioned OEM progress, as well as improved cash collection, flowed through to FCF, as y/e net cash of £13.4m implies £6.1m FCF (materially better than £3.4mE). On outlook, SAAS continues to see a “healthy pipeline”, though caution that supply chain challenges could last longer than expected. In response, we therefore trim FY22E&23E – believing that c.10% revenue growth is now more realistic, while also offers upgrade potential should component shortages become less acute.

Microlise has become the UK market leader as it offers an unrivalled suite of mission critical logistics software to the largest (and most complex) operators, and together with ‘network effects’ and excellent customer service, more and more customers choose to join Microlise every year. In addition - by upselling and cross-selling its ever expanding product portfolio - Microlise tends to increase its penetration with existing customers and in-so-doing, typically achieves NRR well above 100%...

Offering solutions that unlock efficiency, save costs and address growing ESG considerations, we continue to see a very healthy demand environment across Microlise’s current and prospective customer base, meaning the long-term picture remains very encouraging. This said - with hardware sales still key (27%/sales) – prolonged component shortages have become a constraint and an unavoidable challenge. As such, we have taken the prudent view to trim FY22&23E sales by 5%, with this flowing through to EBITDA and FCF.

Within this, recurring software revenue (which is increasingly hardware independent) should fare best – we revise this down just 300bps ~+13% y/y growth in ’22.....with upgrade potential should component shortages become less acute.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1485517353479716870

rns - arr 31/12/2021 was £39.0m, +9%, Net cash £13.4m, new 5-year agreement with JCB, leading to a 10% increase in the number of like-for-like subscriptions

:-)

Canncard broker note 16.12.21...

BUY and 60p target price

Our 60p target price is based on peer group multiples and supported by DCF. On our FY24Eestimates, discounted back, this implies a prospective P/E and EV/EBITDA multiplesof 18x and 10.1x. This reflects the strong operational gearing and attractive growth prospects across all divisions, particularly as Totally targets further accretive acquisitions to scale and strengthen its service proposition.

We maintain our BUY rating noting 79%upside to our target price.

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1484432688694140928

-three new contracts and multiple contract extensions to deliver services across North East England, Staffordshire, Stoke-on-Trent and South East London, together worth a value of more than £54 million.

Trading update due shortly......and some news from the Maxwell saga should filter out soon too,....been a number of small positives over past few months, however, the main aspects remaining pending and I'm sure all those Cenkos clients who coughed up £3m quid a few months ago at 5.5p are looking forward to a return on their investment at some point : -)

lull before the storm ;-)

https://twitter.com/surprised_trade/status/1480879189188354052

Interesting comment in Fundsmith annual report on P/E '..despite the rather sloppy shorthand used by many commentators highly rated P/E does not equate to expensive any more than lowly rated equates to cheap'...