The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Hello Snott,
Jim's valuation is (I belive) an attempt (and appreciated) to base valuation on pure expenditure vs return valuation.Look at Simpley Wall St valuation (bit crazy I will admit).
Your comment .." I think I will hold on until Char starts paying dividends from whatever share of Anchois and wider Lixus licence they keep hold of" is a bit risky.
When has AP ever indicated (I may have missed it so apologise if so) a dividend is thier intent?
I wrote in several questions on the last qna webinar several of which were answered several of which were ignored....one was a (ignored) conformation that the BoDs were NOT going to implement a re-rate (rather than "will there be a buy back" that AP laughed at and said "we have to make a profit first" (ignoring the former) on the shares to bring down the nearly billion shares we have in issue presently ( gone up again to buy the Singapore 2yr old container based "water company"
I again say all of this is tied into why the ii's are not buying our 75% privately owned shares. Anchois/ Linux/ Rissana is the only commercial game being financially played out...based against a CEO miner who who heads up a unprofitable ( since formation) AIM company.
Jim's assessment is probably very realistic based on facts rather than speculative ii (lacking) sentiment.
All imo
In deep, have advised several to buy as a speculative ISA investment...the ii'' are not such risk taker (they have investment criteria to adhere to, its a job) or speculative.
Kindest
GLA
Rgds Sft
Hi Nick IMO: Financing, financials (Anchois/Rissana slightly more calculable but the renewable/hydrogen arm could appear to still look like a energy wash with NO clear financial plan), dilution 52% last year, current income generation and remaing cash runway all reflect the actual worth...not potential.
Consider also: if an ii wanted to invest should they do it through buying share with the above known/unknowns, wait for more certainty or wait for the bonds on a financing project raise (not sure what the BoDs were telling investor's on their recent "tour"?)
Just my opinions but the GAS project (NO idea about the OTHERS) is a good one POTENTIALLY: Every one is waiting for the project numbers, FULLY signed contracts and to see the money/repayment terms
GLA
Rgds Sft
Thank for posting full article KB.
Very interesting that we have been given reconfirmation regarding the potential for CHAR to use the collaboration model: ".....envisages SLB operating the facility for a certain number of years...."
This was raised (by the BoDs) about a year ago (aprox) and has not been much muted since but I picked up on it when raised and does give them an excellent negotiation position when coupled with /if SocGen are able to raise the necessary *financing.
*Note: and long term security of any debt I.e. it can get sold on see: https://www.reuters.com/article/premier-oil-investor-arcm-idINL8N29C19U)
As per (before) I remain in the farm in camp (for multiple reasons) but the BoDs are not allowing themselves to be forced down just one avenue, which could indicate decent experience at CFO level...Premier oil went under due to just such failings (with other factors I.e. PoO and poor management).
Hopefully all will become clear very soon.
Rgds Sft
Windfall tax or increasing in times of significant high growth? Never considered, never part of HM Gov strategy?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/26/the-history-of-windfall-taxes-who-used-them-and-why
The implementation of the directors incentive, expensive and poor drilling campaign, failed and unrealistic take over attempt and now another long drilling campaign to keep flow rates up.
It all hanging on WoS stake increasing.
Rgds Sft
Have to go back to September 2021 to get these prices. Nice value add for the LTH's of the company shares Mr Austin.
Old supporters could be starting to think they should reduce some of their exposure to the moves being played out by the BoDs nowadays?
Rgd Sft
Hi doodle8, thank you for the post.
Particularly interesting: ".....currently in detailed discussions with potential farm in partners and we understand the process is COMPETITIVE."
Do you have the link for the research note, intrested in reading and the artical date.
Kind Rgds Sft
I think it was a good thing that the Anchois find and the BoDs securing the subsequent services of SS7 and Schlumberger was done when it was.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/subsea-7-sees-highest-order-intake-in-last-9-years/
In addtion that meeting (leaked) regarding the high importance (to Moroccan Gov bodies and contractors) of maintaining and achieving timeline deadlines for all parts of the project really was/is true.
RNS on Gas contracts and project financing (farm in partner, banks or VC investors must be close (post FEED).
Note: You can bet the team are keeping an eye on the rig count too.
https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/intl-rig-count
Wonder what both SS7 and Schlumberger are saying about equipment supply chain deliver timelines.
Did AP mentions anything in reply to such equipment procurement before sanction or was it a BB poster mentioning something about securing such by order before sanction?
Rgds Sft
Hi Fraserd, I have a bit of past experience via Rockhopper and Premier (not a good example of a sucessful project btw) but premier did issue a RNS.
But the "oracle" that is google is always a good try: quick example
https://www.google.com/search?q=Front+end+engineering+completion+RNS
Kindest Sft
Hi KB,
I belive the completion of FEED is worthy of an RNS as it would be regarded as a key project mile stone.
But it is only my opinion (as it would be Jims)
If an RNS is issued it should detail the move to FID and a prospective time line
The other 2 (Gas contracts and financing) could all be bundled into a FID time line but it would then expose the project financing status as undecided and or unclear....it would be that investors are demanding clear costs on FEED before commiting (no MOU's at this point thats for sure).. so IMO FEED completion is of significance.
Rgds Sft
Just my usual musings but......having come in late (directly after the Anchois drilling) I am not therefore a CHAR veteran: imo and looking back, the failed Nambia ventures obviously was the demise of cash and share price but Linux/Anchois was also ( fortunately) purchased with some of that remainng cash.
Then comes the rise of AP and the end of others (LTH will know better?) tenure in CHAR.
There was share issue funding for the drilling campaign and the eventual discovery (or some may say greater belief than what Repsol (sellers) believed was there?)
My initial entry (post drill) proved to be soundbites subsequent SP purchases less so, as I saw that CHAR still needed further funding and raised this but listened to some poster(s) (my own fault) thatcherism fully funded. Looking at the cashreserves I should have known this was not the case...but also in fairness none of us WERE aware of AP/BoDs intended path in further field purchase, addtional pace and support/ finances toward the renewables Arms OR that they were going to fully fund FEED (rather than get a partner in immediately) this direction led to further fund raising via shares and a 52% dilution, that no investors were planning ( I would have held off averaging in and subsequently UP knowing this was the plan ).
SO imo the current LTHhave lost mostly (again only imo) due mainly to Nambia but like me (the newbie) again due to the share issue funding and the BoDs lack of transparency on their plans Some did though hence the sp drop before the last fund raise) .
We still find ourselves especially in the dark on farm out and / or bond issue or banking finance for the project AND any part of the financing of the renewables.
Couple this with CHAR never having been profitable the institution are staying WELL out for now...hence (imo) our sp status.
It will soon become clear if AP is going to getthe right deals or (concerningly) do some (I may be too suspicious) finance deal he is involved with too?
That's why I want to see a snr operator involved in Anchois/Linux.
All musing and speculations as usual.
Rgds Sft
Okay Gtrzak
Mphepo Power* is new name and the 770MW is a increase from the CHAR March 21 RNS previously stated as 430MW
So nice find and onpass, interesting? cheers.
Rgds Sft
Note: *https://www.mphepopower.com/
Hello Gtrzak, is there some more news about Zambia?
Last news was:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CHAR/renewable-energy-for-mining-operations-in-zambia-5mdbdcvpytcad7e.html
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/977310/chariot-to-collaborate-on-solar-and-wind-project-in-zambia-977310.html
Rgds Sft
I am guessing that if a few "private investors" brought in before the Anchois drilling campaign and looking at the fluctuations over say the last 6 months that have had 5x fluctuations of around 20% (with a spread of say Ave 3%) there has been trading opportunities for some to speculate on.
If you consider that in periods of waiting for positive news on such a project to really kick off (FEED/Gas contracts/ FID/Sanction then project development) there are always opportunities; if you are experienced in these types of developments and hold a large trance of shares you can allocate a % of your holdings to trading only?
Whilst the later, averaged down (or up in my case!) and more portfolio diverse may just have to sit and wait (with fingers crossed).
Standing by for good news
GLA
Rgds Sft
Extract from Suresh's post
"Genel has launched a process to find a partner to take a material equity position and jointly pursue the exploration programme in the block, with the opportunity to drill and test one of the high-graded prospects"
So CHAR fans we can probably expect an RNS any day now stating a fund raise with 500 millions shares to invest in a new development opertunity (-; JOKE!
Well what Genel is up to only raises Morroco's and therefore CHARS profile.
How easy will it be to sell an Oil project rather than gas? Will watch with interest.
Than you for post.
Rgds Sft