Much, what you mention with regards geopolitical and finance security, is a ever increasing issue (imo) for operators. All that commitment and no surety that the country will honour a deal.
Just look at RKH small effort in Egypt. If you look a Total in Libya, Shell in Venezuela, Shell Nigeria, Total Mozambique (Islamist militants), ****stan (Islamist militants, no Western or US operators), BP with Russia....etc etc.
The world is becoming increasingly unstable...which we do not see improving...
So IF HE, know the have the support of HM Gov, then its a stable investment outside of the safety of the North Sea. What HE do with ZAMA will be the big signal. Again imo, if they sell that it is a signal of their
mistrust of such exposure, frees up cash, frees them of any Latino kick back from developing SL.
So I am thinking that would be resolved first, before any announcement of SL sanction.
Selling it fits well with their MO as well I.e. Snr operator.
As is being indicated, the world will need some new fields being developed. The US has its own back yard (GoM) and shale still...but...what of HE. The only fly in the ointment is if HE want to pick up BP's assets that PMO did not get...but again Zama has to go first.
IMO something is rotten in the state of Denmark:
We get a jump of 8.54% on a VERY limited amount of buys and someone also pops up on ADFN stating an OM outcome.
MM's beating the cover, looking to get another 20%?
Just an observation, time will tell.
I have a similar feeling.
Moggers post and links were VERY illuminating.
The government may well have supported the UKEF funding if the application had actually been submitted. PMO dragging their heels or kicking the can due to all their financial problems i.e. they did not have their part of the project funding to meet the UKEF criteria, is my guess.
I really think HE and Navitas will not be able to supply sufficient funds with out UKEF, so the remainder will have to come from somewhere.
I would like US investment: despite some posters confidence that the Argies will probably not cause further disruption, I still feel they retain some real support amongst the South American countries for their "Project Malvinas".
If HE sign in with Navitas then that is obvoiously a very important (especially in light of a higher probability of no UKEF) step.
I find it impossible now to think HE will go it alone.
The project will definitely need and additional funding source....
What gets me is the continual lack of information that we live on, from either PMO or Sobel Moody.
Let's hope Sobel and Stewart go for another 20% pay cut and no bonus (but will probably grab 100mil in shares in recompense)...as we may need (OM cash) more time..again.
Additional comment: Remember Chyrasor got out of Solan, courtesy of PMO. That project the sunk PMO through lack of expected production, drop in PoO and inept debt structuring.
They now have Solan.
Harbour Energy will play this correctly and as you indicate if they rip up the Navitas contract and revert to previous, RKH need a lot more cash.
Note: due to poor contractual knowledge Sobel gave most of the Sea Lion sale cash back to PMO during FEED.
Well summarised MarkdNbr1, weakness and ineptitude and greed has plagued RKH at the upper management level.
I will give Sobel Moody the credit for the initial efforts in developing the company, structuring the finance for the resultant Sea lion find. Thereafter, well it is as you have identified and the numbers on how much he has squandered (and paid himself and Stewart) is frightening, but its not his money he has put in.
I agree there is a real chance Navitas will not make the cut, but that would be if Harbour E do infact want to go it alone....Still not sure if HE want to make that financial commitment. I continue to look at Quad 204 as a similar project and BP had significant partners adding to the funding ( Partners, BP 36%; Shell 44% Siccar Point Energy 10%, Chryasor bought 10% off Shell at some point)
Note: I think that is the current structuring, hard to find current +2019 data)
So if it is not Navitas then who? I just do not see HE putting up the cash for it all, its too much for a company that size.
Its all very complicated, what is interesting is that you are having trouble buying. Was it a large buy you were after? I can't imagine a few £k being an issue, so that is strange? Especially when after the merger there is going to be a lot of shares potentially avaliable or is some one acquiring....or some brokers loaned out too much?
With ii stating they do not loan out, that 8.21% not avaliable do not know about all the others:
Hargreaves Lansdown, stockbrokers (EO) 13.32
Interactive Investor (EO) 8.21
HSDL, stockbrokers (EO) 5.75
Schroder Investment Management 5.28
Barclays Smart Investor (EO) 4.25
Dimensional Fund Advisors 4.22
Vanguard Group 3.06
Legal and General Investment Management 2.50
Janus Henderson Investors 2.08
No mention of GoldmanS, (ARCM, Whitebox and Mel confirmed as shorting,via short tracker, and we know ARCM is a creditor and White & Mel may be covering for others).
Ps again too complicated for me; Jen and AndyP seem to have a better handle on it.
Thank you Orient, once the AGM date is announced.
I will and I am sure others will do the same on other platforms. Might be worth considering other platforms too I.e. twitter etc etc
Anyone know the protocols on if we do remove, the process, identification of and time scales for getting a replacement.
I would vote for Andrew Austin, but he has his new company, is into Gas and invests heavily (shares) into the company too I.e. does not rely on fat cat wages....but he could be approached as part of a recruitment panel?
I contacted ii (I purchase through them) asking them if they ever lend shares out to other parties that could be used for the purpose of shorting. They replied they do not lend share out.
Note: I went into specific detail on the short being put against PMO in my question.
The above is interesting as if you look on PMO website ii hold (as I guess for many of us) a decent % of PMO shares.
I would raise that I think Jen mentioned and Andyp on ADFN that I have found interesting and worthy of discussion:
COURTESY OF ANDYPOP1 ADFV, who kindly took the time to put down his prespective for me.
"The shorters are creditors, they know as part of the debt repayment the company will be issuing them shares as part payment for the monies owed so rather than wait to sell those shares in what could be a tsunami of creditor shares hitting the market at the same time they have opted to forward sell them by borrowing shares from a broker and selling them on. When they receive their shares from the company they hand them back to the broker and say thank you very much big Tone.
I'll give an example:
Mrs Melanie White is due to be given 1,000,000 shares with an equivalent value of 8p each as part payment for monies owed by Pugmier Oil.
Those shares are currently trading at 20p so safe in the knowledge the shares will be handed over in the next few months Melanie decides to approach a friendly broker, who just so happens to hold these shares in a nominee account, and asks if he would be willing to lend her 1,000,000 shares on the understanding she will give them back in a few months along with a fee for his troubles. Mr Broker agrees and hands the shares over to Melanie.
Melanie sells the shares on the open market over the following weeks for 20p each.
A few months pass and Melanie receives her 8p shares from the company and promptly gives them to the friendly broker with a few quid for his troubles.
The nominee account is back to where it should be and Melanie has got 20p for that portion of the debt as opposed to the open market price with up to 3b shares hitting the market at the same time."
Is the reason for the short against GameStop or the failured short on Tesla, the reason for PMO's current short?
The debt structuring for PMO has been Incredibly complex and ARCM took advantage of it massively.
But what we can all agree on (following subsequent asset price reductions) is TD would have paid too much for the BP assets if they had gone ahead with it.
I will freely admit, I am way out of my depth I understanding the complexities of this deal and what will be the post merger price.
HE assets I belive are good, PoO is on the rise and $65 is a reasonable expectation end of 21.
When the 21 AGM, bit early to be canvasing, I know...but:
Wonder how much an ad costs (small one) in the FT or Times to ask for share holder support to remove Moody. Gofundme anyone....? The other papers may even run an article on how difficult it is to remove a piggy from the trough.
"Shareholders RKH, have in desperation taken out an ad in xxx.........."
If we get money from OM whats he going to do with all that cash? Another investment in Egypt, remodle
the office, trips to the FI's 1st class via Rio or Bogota, JV with Aramco, he could buy out Argos and get another salary? I can definitely seem him and Stu voting themselves another bonus for the win, they generally go for around 90k when there spending...errrrr sorry loose the money, must be worth 200k for them winning this...well after they have paid the lawyers. He knows he can do what he wants, some body keeps passing the resolutions.
They did not disclose voting figures this year because it must have been close.
Remember even if this sp does rise it will only be because of the lawyers winning or HE stepping up.
Its really dangerous letting this continue with Sam Sobel Moody troughing and leading us with his compass and map.
Cheers Duster, trying to get a bottom of any retrenchment is not easy. Getting it right can be very profitable I.e. back at the start of covid 2020 I missed the bottom (back in too early) from the all markets low of approx. March 17th/22nd 2020 and that was a costly error in that I missed out in the greater % gains.
So you could be right in hanging back.
Will sell some small % of my more profitable shares if it heads as looks to head South as your charts and thoughts indicate.
MY thoughts are: I can not see that low due to vaccine, PoO, potential any time in Q1 for a deal to be announced, SHOULD hold it up??????
A deal fall through or new strain, not receptive to vaccines, are not part of my current considerations.
Kind Rgds Sft
Just added just over £2.1k @ 1.55
May be a bit early, but with Biden already reversing some of Trumps oil moves, hat IMO should bolster PoO recent gains.
Kistos investors looking to realise some profits after seeing such a gain here, which have been pretty decent, based just on faith in AA (correctly so) at present.
Its still a little way off before end of Q1, its just a question of how much profit do investor's want to take out either for reinvestment back in here or some where else. But let's be clear a deal is in the pipeline and then the sp will shift up another level.
PoO should be stable around $55 and gas is on the rise...we are already being told gas bills will go up an extra £90 for you average UK consumer.
LTH for Kistos. Wish I had more spare cash.