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Hi Stevo, can not fault your comments.
In particular I like your thought process with regards the write off being a possible indicator.
I am particularly interested on what they do with their remains cash and as you say bp's assets are an easy target. My concern is proven reservoir growth balanced against decom liabilities. May be the NS will remain their default safe option.,..but outside of that I think the risk for other international assets too high.
As you, I and all understand they do not need to rush in on a SL......the mitigation is spreading the burden further...and if it was UKEF supported (looking unlikely now) it would have fitted the criteria of "HM Gov support" ideally.
As usual we spend our time on healthy speculation.
Whilst sitting with no influence, but some hope.
Not many oven ready Stevo, just look at the trouble Total are having with Mozambique (LNG)
Senegal / Mauritania project for BP
Invest in Egypt, Iran, Iraq, ****stan, Kurdistan, Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, carry their own troubles.
Some smaller potential in Asia, but are they going to own it all and the deal with potential local issues.
South America the same as we can see with Mexico as a shining example.
Australia: Chevron after the union /environmental issues overan their Gorgon project into the sum of multiple of billions,reported they will never invest there again.
Yes maybe there are plenty of smaller investments to be had...but if after the amount spent on FEED and the potential opportunities, combined with PoO.......
If HE do not go for it, they will never have such an opportunity again.
Unless they want to do more exploration and then FEED and then develop somewhere safer and more stable...????? and we really seem to be running out of such places rather increasingly and rapidly.
All my opinion of course.
They (Harbour + Group) may decide its too big: they will remember Solan and I still belive they are one investor short, unless Navitas stump up more.
Q3/Q4 21 or Q1 22 is definitely going to be interesting.
If you look around Central/ South America its becoming increasingly difficult to deal with the local governments (exception is Guyana, for now).
I really and increasingly belive HE will look at Mexico as too risky. Where as Boris has already stated the Falklands fate will remain in British hands for as long as the Islanders want it so....and I can't see any Argentinians getting residency.
The investment in FEED is too much to walk away from IF PMO have completed a accurate assessment.
HE as has been stated will be going over FEED with a fine tooth comb and that and renegotiating with suppliers and contractors will take some time, I am now starting to feel as others have thought it could be a year, but hope it could be end of 21 for sanction and then procurement and drilling.
For info if anyone wants to refresh themselves on The Complete Guide To FID’s this is worth a read:
Mr Magic, the mandatory controls you detail, as you say could be the REAL short /medium term issue.
AND point of joining and disembarkation will also be restricted as countries may change rules in a moment.
The present 2 days (isolation) ONLY apply if its from depart/ arrive back in the UK.
So your assessment looks to be on point.
I might add, once on-board we do not wear masks.
Its an interesting point regarding flu: It use to be a nightmare on crew change (every 2 weeks) 50% change out. Normal trip duration 28 days.
But since covid...no ones had flu.
The main introduction was no hand shaking and very regularly cleaning hands I.e. stations on each level, at entery exit on lifts and a big one very regular cleaning of hand rails.....but I stress a vessel of 90; project and crew IS NOT a cruise ship passenger level so the chances to remain a lot higher.
Its not going to be easy for sure.
Still I belive manageable but not with excursions. IMO.
The quote regarding using face coverings out side of cabins is the biggest blow for attracting customers back imo
Hi Mr Magic, I work offshore on vessels and we have been very successful on preventing Covid coming aboard...but that has included:
1. 2 days (initially a week) in a hotel in isolation, then a covid test prior to boarding.
2. Not a allowed ashore.
3. No personnel from onshore allowed on to the vessel
, Acception are the pilots who are required to pass through the vessel and up to the bridge to guide vessel in to ports.
4. No interaction with marine crew and shore side for resupply.
Not all vessels have kept it at bay.
So I would say IMO: the only way, for some time, will be no shoreside excursions, to prevent it being brought on-board. All passengers and marine will have to have been vaccinated.
Will people go for a cruise that does not include visits to locations? Just wining, dining, entertainment (shows/musicals etc etc), sun and company....after all this yes I do.
If the companies focus on entertainment it will be back a lot quicker than we think.
The age group is older (not getting any younger), and its been a VERY restrictive time for them.
I have several older neighbours with disposable income and they can't wait.
Emerald makes some good points, re flights.
Just my opinion, of course.
Energy Voice Report positive feelings from the markets.
Encouraging, very encouraging.
Combined with Moggers article.
Dare we dream to hope.
Energy Voice Report positive feelings from the markets.
Encouraging, very encouraging.
What I find interesting is that (+120 days) and we could get an indication from HE about where they are going with SL before we get any information regarding OM.
I would had preferred to have had the OM news first then the HE news, for obvious reasons.
Godders, you really must abandon this "hope" thing you have with Sobel Moody and Stu coming good on their company title and wages. Especially now they have reduced things in the office such that Sobel is delegated to answering the emails: "DO NOT touch anything else Sammy AND especially what EVER you do, DO NOT answer the phones"
In fact we may get and AGM BEFORE we get anything from OM or HE...now how about voting for a 50% pay cut and no additional share allocation until first Oil, that may sharpen the piggies minds bit.
Oh and no more " Lets buy assets to keep our outgoings covered"
Share holders reply "Sure, if your both put on YTS wages and in charge of the canteen tuck shop"
GLA: in HE we trust
2,226 sq ft of office is equal to approximately 21 employees, it is an interesting post and if you consider Sam and Stu will take big offices so you can cut out 4 for each. That would be max 13 other personnel.
Probable same office space that they have already (and that will be empty) , just in a cheaper location.
They need that for their "little people" throwing , Marching bands, Quaalude parties and "special guests" from Kittens Gentlemen's club every time they blag an AGM.
Little artical found interesting:
Could Cairn Energy have been a good match for another partner, but with the commitment to Egypt, which I find a big gamble in curret times, its a shame the went that way.
"..........Mr Boroujerdi added: “Cairn Energy has had a history of selling down assets and building up new core areas. The sale of UK assets to Waldorf Energy, on the same day it announces an entry into Egypt, is very much on brand"
Still the artical below, does demonstrate that there is cash out there and compnies are willing to spend it.
Things are definitely looking up folks. I actually feel very positive, for the first time in what seems like too long.
Old news to us but its still good to get the news out there: potential new share investors.
Current price has upward potential if you think we will win the OM award AND significant movement IF HE and Navitas push the project button.
2021 will be the year we will know at least.
Aging assets vs new field with large proven reserves, high quality oil (on a par with brent), water depth not regarded as significantly deep-water, enviromental conditions not dissimilar to west of shetland, FEED completed(by PMO at significant cost) and large potential for further field expansion.
PMO team experience (if project team still in company) in FPSO and subsea infrastructure development (Catcher).
Partner, Navitas (although not fully signed on as yet) to help share development costs.
HE will secure their future and be able to use PMO tax carry for decom ops in the NS
HE (imo) really have got a great purchase, if you consider what they spent for previous asset buys.