Member Info for SunkenSailor

Nashwan,

Did you buy back in 2006 when the share price was 600,000 times where it is now?

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TERN:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj62o-io7OJAxVYXUEAHUEsHEoQ3ecFegQILxAX&window=MAX

Get yourself one of these each YTeeBack and G.Rees - G.Rumpy bears

https://www.fun.co.uk/care-bears-deluxe-grumpy-bear-costume.html

Come on now don't keep up this grumpy Bear persona, why not change your outlook at least for a while, loose the TERN negativity and let us know you are going long.

It would be like a whole new lease of life for you, pointing out some positives and potential upsides for TERN, that would be fun wouldn't it? after nearly five years of only looking for the negative.

You know instead of coming across as the TERN bear, G.Reaper (always bringing bad tidings), we could call you G.Ramper - that would be fun wouldn't it?

So you guys (G.Rees and YTeeBack) happy to accept that title, you agree then, that you are TERN bears / shorters, resident on this bulletin board?

There are well over 1000 posts between you over 4-5 years, only ever posting on TERN, through the stocks ups and downs, every post always inclined to the negative - always with "Bearish" de-ramping intent.

Why not just be open about it? A Bullish ramper say like Sweepie, would be open and agree he is a TERN Bull, tell you his exit target price.

Whats with all the smoke and mirrors from you two though, refusal to own up, or share your shorting game plan, why not let us know your target plan to close out your shorts?

How about you YTeeBack - Why are you posting here on TERN, always with a negative twist, regularly for the past few years and ongoing?

Are you are shorting TERN? Still looking for a lower price, a lower market cap than this to close your short? Or are you just paid to post negative comments but have no position open?

Why are you continually "Bearish" to TERN "de-ramping" - What is in it for you?

I fully understand that there is still risk of downward movement in the SP from here, although also see good potential for upside, which is why I am here - I am hoping and expecting there to be a decent turnaround at some point, a good move upwards in the share price.

Although I am asking here G.Rees for your opinion, not mine, as to whether you see any potential for upside in the share price going forward?

From what I can see you have been post here regularly for over 4 years, with reasoned intelligent points, so you obviously have good knowledge on the 3 remaining investees & TERN overall, but your comments are only ever with a negative bent with a de-ramping intent.

Which leads me to wonder as to - "what is your intent?" Are you are shorting TERN? Still looking for a lower price, a lower market cap than this to close your short? Or are you just paid to post negative comments but have no position open?

Appreciate it if you can clarify on your intent here

G.Reaper,

I suppose you have hit the nail on the head there, that does seem to be the case, 2 exits and no special divi.

Investors here though like me, are still hoping to see some a turn around, and value well above the current market cap start to emerge, from the three remaining candidates.

Any hope for us from 1p? or are you still forecasting only eternal darkness for Tern? Third time lucky?

From August 12 RNS

Global believes a Farm-In, if successfully concluded, could be transformational for the business, with a strategic partner potentially enabling the exploitation of the estimated 2,747 million barrels of oil ("barrels") on the licence (Unrisked Net Best Estimate (P50) Prospective Resources - as previously announced on 27 March 2023).

Market still asleep! like most here I am hoping this farm in goes ahead, and the plan for drilling on those prospective billions of barrels of oil is announced along with it. How long until news? maybe that will force the market to waken up - oil price $75/barrel.

Market still kicking the GBP can down the road for now, like it is the Calcutta cup on the streets of Edinburgh.

maybe g.rees,

i am just hoping al ****show isn't the type to immediately dilute, his own recent investment in tern further.

Good questions,

What percentage of the current GBP 78% block equity, will be given away in the farm in deal?

We don't currently know, that is what will be being decided in the ongoing commercial negotiations, with the interested operator.

In the most recent deal in the same basin (link below), Chevron farmed in for 80% and Custos were left with 10% & free carry (but I don't know what the Custos equity was prior / what percentage they gave away).

There will also be amounts of cash given for back costs, and decisions to take on the forward exploration work program, and the value of an exploration free carry going forward for GBP, which will all form part of the negations on block equity percentages for each company following farm in.

https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/deals/chevron-pel-82-offshore-namibia/

what discount to the current share value

I don't follow your thinking here, why do you think an operator deal will have a negative share value impact?

By farming in the operator is making significant investments into the licence (hoping they will lead to even bigger returns when they drill and eventually produce) - so for a tiny company like GBP an operator farming is huge news, and it should bring a large upside in the share price.

So I took some more on Friday afternoon.

Hopefully 1p is the bottom, and we will see a more definitive turnaround in the share price.

GBP website BEOS presentation - Namibia hunting for giants

Summary Slide 17 - Material opportunity in a new oil province

- Venus, Graff & Jonker have proven a new petroleum province, underpinned by the Kudu Shale source rock, which extends to Global’s licence PEL94

- 3.5 BBO Gross Mean Prospective Resources in 9 prospects & leads

- Drill-ready prospects already covered by 3D seismic: Welwitschia Deep (881

MMbbl Gross Mean); Marula (411 MMbbl Gross Mean)

- 2.2 billion bbls upside in leads that would benefit from 3D seismic coverage

- Relatively cheap drilling: water depth c.1,000m; targets 2,600-2,800m

- Stable jurisdiction, excellent fiscal terms, robust economics

- Global has been in Namibia since 2010 and has excellent relationships with the government and Namcor

- Significant equity position and operatorship available in consideration for contribution to past costs and a carry on the forward work programme

Results of recent open offer RNS 23rd Sept

Albert Sisto took 1,441,481 shares at 1.25p, to take his total Tern holding to 12,158,147 - so he added £18k, although he was the only management to add anything "real".

Lets hope the other director that said the share price should be many multiples when it about 6p was actually right. After a statement like that though, when the same guy didn't load up big with a chance at 1p, you do have to start to wonder about his conviction to his own words, hmmm.

Maybe he is a fan of the AIM, and has already blown his pay checks, on some other games of snakes and ladders.

All relative, but for me, I added a decent chunk in here in Feb @2, so nice to see it turning around again.

I would take some more, but have been holding off, now that the vote has been approved giving AS the ability to issue new shares again.

That said AS did put a reasonable amount of his own cash in recently, so hoping any placing(s) will be from higher, and that we have seen the low.

You are right MH lots of assumptions, and also correct on offshore drilling, which is very expensive. Easy to spend $50Mil plus (rig rates over 1/2mil/day to hire....). Correct too, only really the larger operators who currently have rigs on hire / em route to Namibia now.

Also from the presentation, Global are telling us that "Global has entered into early commercial discussions with an operating partner for a Farm-In agreement for its licence PEL94 offshore Namibia". This operating partner will be one of those mentioned in their presentation, Chevron, BP/ENI, GALP, Total... those that can afford drill and operate oil fields.

So the farm in partner is investing very high cost into the block, by farming in and picking up the drilling costs.

And global are telling us they are in talks with a partner, which sounds positive, but as we all know, the talks could fall through.

What we still don't know If the farm in partner wants to get straight after the drilling. If assume they do (then see previous post), if they plan to drill straight away then increase on the SP will be less, as the market doen't have to factor in, that a rig on "x" date, a rig will actually drill to firm up if the oil targeted is really there.

Without the drilling, the market gets to kick the can down the road for longer, as to wether the Namibia block and Globals share of it is worth billions or not.

Extract from the Global website presentation;

"seeking an industry partner for a full carry on current exploration programme"(full carry - interpret this as no cost to Global on future seismic and exploration drilling - which is contingent, optional)

So the commercial and operating farm in partner would pick exploration costs to prove the reservoir targets, in exchange for Global handing over a large percentage ownership on the block. Global own 78% at the moment, lets assume that they end up with 10% and that they have no exploration (drilling and seismic) costs to pay.

Then assume they announce the farm in partner, which alone would be great news, but also announce they will be drilling a well next year (which is contingent/optional, drilling is why the partner is farming in - they think it is a good block to drill on). Then the market has to factor into the market cap, the reasonable likelihood they will strike oil (Namibian wells have had a good strike rate, hence the interest in the area).

They would be drilling to firm up, if the block does actually contain the 1-2 billions of barrels of oil hoped for, even 1 billion x the price of oil is a huge number, and Global would still own 10% of it without having any further expenditure.

So there is potential for large share price movement, and high volatility on the run upto the drilling, around market exceptions around the success of the well.

Remaining commitments to acquire 2,000 km2 3D seismic data (firm) and to drill a well (contingent)

>3.5 billion barrels Gross Mean Prospective Resources in 9 prospects & leads

Drill-ready prospects on 3D seismic: Welwitschia Deep (881 MMbbls Gross Mean); Marula (411 MMbbls Gross Mean)

Then there is the gold..

Would be nice to get farm in terms, retaining high percentage ownership, like Rhino resources look to have done with Azule (BP/ENI)

https://www.azule-energy.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Azule-Energy-Announces-Strategic-Farmin-to-Rhino-Resources_final.pdf

Looks like a Noble drillship is coming to drill on their asset this year

https://splash247.com/rhino-resources-taps-halliburton-for-namibian-well-construction-gig/

Who knows who GBP are in discussions with, or which way the SP is going. But BP don't mess about when they decide they are investing in a region, and ENI would also be a good match for the other GBP adriatic assets, maybe those licences could form part of a deal?

"commercial partner" - pockets deep enough to pay for the drilling, ideally that wants to drill quickly, hopefully turn those large resource mapped reservoir targets, into real oil wells

@ 0.975

Appreciated, think I will wait to see the RNS, as it sounds like there is still a risk that the numbers being banded around may just be part of the soft launch, a demo type thing? and that no actual real significant revenue has been generated yet? For info, Is the decision to move from soft launch to actual launch a GST only decision, or do they still need approval from others?

Thanks, so at the moment is there any proof or reason to believe that the soft launch has ended, and actual revenue is being generated? Would have expected an RNS to inform that the soft launch was over or ending on X date.