Member Info for SumOverHistories

Ahoy there shipmate.

Yes. SAGA always get hammered along with the rest of the travel sector, even though we are actually an insurance company. I think it has been said before that Travel and Cruise is essentially the jewel in the insurance crown.

It may have gone below 8 p. I’m testing my memory. I just remember buying at the rights issue price on the open market mistakenly expecting that to be the bottom. To my dismay, it kept sinking. However, on a more positive note, we saw 30% daily rises in SAGA previously driven by news. I suspect we will see the same again at some point.

Anyone seen banbury?

Our friendly local accountant appears to be lost at sea. I hope his wife hasn’t made him walk the plank.

At this time, the vaccine was merely a glint in Professor Whitty’s eye.

I remember when I first bought into SAGA post rights issue for about 11 p a share.

As usual, I completely missed the bottom. Ended up walking all the way down to 8 p if I remember correctly. Those were the days.

I’m no chartist, but if you look carefully at the one year chart, you will note our current position is around the price of the late March resistance level.

With any luck, this resistance level will be the bottom. If we fall through this level, then to quote our esteemed colleague millionaire, there’s no resistance down to about 250, which was the start of year price.

This has been massively oversold. We need a bit of good news now though to, quite literally, steady the ship.

Anyone would think this wasn’t 80% an insurance business with the decline we’ve seen.

Thank you captain. Keep an eye out for icebergs.

Yes our ships are sailing. But the stock price is sinking. Make of it what you will.

Stay positive? I’ve lost about £30K over the past couple of weeks in this bloody stock. I’ve had to temporarily withdraw my offer to get the second round in after Banbury.

Happy Friday. Onwards and upwards.

Let’s be honest, Saga were struggling prior to the pandemic. If you look at the long term chart, the share price has come a long way down.

However, now Mr Haan Man is back at the helm, it’s a new chapter. I would suggest you have a look at potential forward earnings and consider that against the current share price.

Given the forward earnings potential of this company, there should be plenty of available cash to pay a substantial dividend going forward (in theory).

Apologies if I have avoided answering your question directly.

Better day today. Let’s hope it continues.

pmsl

Very nice. Not bad for £235 million. How many over 50s are going to be out on that basketball court though?

Let's say for arguments sake, given we have £140 million contribution from insurance, we can get to £200 million in 2023/24. So, £200 million divided by 140 million shares.

200 / 140 = 1.43

So that's earnings per share of £1.43 and a current price of £3.80 per share. That would be a forward price to earnings of about 3. Still very cheap based on a forward earnings forecast.

Cheers, guys. I'm sure some of the numbers I'm throwing about aren't quite right, but if others chip in we should hopefully be able to confirm things.

The broker forecast of £22 million for 2021/22 seems to be in the correct ballpark when you consider that last years profit (excluding exceptional items) was about £17.1 million. £80 million for 2022/23 also seems reasonable on the basis of a conservative estimate, allowing for a slow and phased re-opening of travel. The following year, we could probably expect a bumper year for profits, assuming complete resumption of full capacity travel by then.

Been spending some time today going through the previous RNS releases and trying to get my head around the current state of play with the accounts.

From April's preliminary results, the underlying profit before tax was £17.1 million. But we had £78.3 million of exceptional items (£30.8 million restructuring and a £59.8 million travel goodwill impairment). This left us with a loss of £67.8 million after tax had been paid.

So my take from this was that when you exclude the exceptional items, the proceeds from insurance more than covered the current cash burn from travel, despite the fact we are still apparently refunding previously spent customer deposits. I think based on what Banbury has said previously, there is not likely to be any further large goodwill write downs going forward, so in theory the overall group should now be operating with a small profit.

Regarding the apparent customer deposits refund cash burn. If we have already refunded approximately £130 million, then you wouldn't think there would be much left in this now surely. The Saga Holidays and Titan order book for 2019/20 and 2020/21 was about £180 million and £85.3 million respectively. The retention rate was apparently 42% for tour operations.

"Retention rates remained high through period of suspension; 73% Cruise and 42% Tour Operations."

So asssuming 58% of the travel money was refunded.

(180 + 85.3) * 0.58 = £153.88 million

Following the recent issue of the new £250 million corporate bond @ 5.5%. My understanding is that the £70 million term loan with maturity May 2023 will be repaid and also £100 million of the corporate bond with maturity May 2024. The remaining £80 million goes towards strengthening the cash and liquidity position as the cruise and travel business begins to reopen.

So that would leave the following debt position.

£250 million corporate bond @ 5.5% with maturity May, 2026
£150 million corporate bond with maturity May, 2024
£100 million unused revolving credit facility with maturity May, 2023

£235 million Spirt of Discovery ship loan with maturity June, 2031
£281 million Spirt of Adventure ship loan with maturity September, 2032

In terms of the cash on hand / liquidity position, we had £78 million as of 31 May 2021 plus £80 million from refinancing, so approximately £158 million.

"Liquidity position remains strong, with total available cash of £78m at 31 May 2021."

Can some of the more advanced accounting people on here please either correct me or confirm I am on the right lines here with these numbers? Also, does anyone have any projections for earnings following the full resumption of cruise and travel? I want to try and calculate forward price to earnings.

I’m with you on this one banbury. Very concerning level of cash burn if those numbers are correct. Also quite a coincidence that it closely matches the money they have just raised. Certainly makes you wonder.

Realistically though, what can they do about it currently? Presumably offloading tour is not really an option at the moment because it’s essentially worthless until travel resumes.

Exactly the question I’ve been pondering beach. This is not just a general travel stock pull back as we initially thought.

We have been singled out and hit hard over the past few days. Can only assume it is in some way related to the refinancing. Perhaps one of the II’s is pulling out.

It’s the obvious and sensible thing to do. Are the f****rs actually going to do it though.

Two jabs yes, one jab no. Keep it simple, keep it safe.