Member Info for Stupmy

LSE, another analogy that works very well!!

I'm a wine fan.

I'm no longer a smoker, but it's maybe the same analogy; the first puff on a cigarette is the best, the first cigarette of the day is the only one that hits you etc

Great analogy Xhita, but doesn't that mean all airlines get an increased number of flights if the 14d traditional break is now 2 or more 5-6 day breaks?

Bold trading bb!! Good luck. I've not got the backbone for that trade.

'they need help and you can't help them'

I'll dig this clip out and post it at some point. I think of it very frequently on bb's. It's from a video by James Jani (important video that everyone interested in investing should watch). In fact, this video is so important that in my view, every one should watch it. It highlights facets of human nature found on almost every single bb. If you can 'read' this video, it'll will give you a good steer as to why you should filter a large number of posters.

'The cult of the dead stock' James Jani. You'll find the 'they need help and you can't help them quote' in this video. At some point I'll rewatch it and clip it out.

The total value of their short position is 976.73 million (GBP). I think I suggested earlier that put them as 2nd highest short position. I need to apologise as that's utter nonsense. There are several much larger total short exposures on the UK market. E.g. Whitbread (9940million), Phoenix grp holdings (9164million), Next (8969 million), Vod (8949 million) and I could go on. So relative to these shorts CBG is a smaller total exposure in GBP. It's still not trivial.

I have no idea if the all of the borrowed shares have been sold short already but overall volume now remains higher than the pre Oct 25th volume (where the big fall really took off). This elevated volume could just be retail positions being churned for profit and loss.

Being 'entirely possible' is one thing, suggesting that it is actually happening is another. I'd like to see some reference to where the information came from. Otherwise it's just more bb bs

I'm in total agreement and all newsflow is worth considering. I though nihar's post marked him out as a pr at also.

I've been looking at shorts. CBG short position is around 3% which doesn't look too bad, until you look at the value of the shorts. That's very high, 2nd highest short position by value in the UK markets. So those shorts are presumably quite high conviction.

Quite right sheltie, with respect to nihar's post. Ridiculous thing to say.

Having said that, the article was a sloppy rehash of old news and could have been published to try to enhance negative sentiment.

What's your source on that? Last info I have is that they were in discussions in 2018. Do you have something newer?

I'm looking at the short data (Shorteurope and Shorttracker) and it's marked as 6th, 8th and not even in the top 10 variously on these pages when you look at % stock sold short. It's consistently 4.04%. But if you look at value sold short WG comes in at 79th. So it's a cheap short. Maybe others have a better grip on how to interpret this data. But I'm guessing that with downward pressure on the SP due to WG being in a 'special situation' then this is a standard attempt to exploit further potential weakness. It wouldn't take much of new negative newsflow to have the SP off again. I still think that at some point the risk must exceed the reward and that the lower the SP is, assuming the target is a viable ongoing concern, then the riskier the position is. In percentage terms, the short seems high, but in capital risked terms (due to the low price of the shares) the risk is not that high.

Anyone have a better, more informed view than my guesswork here?

Well, no reduction in shorts, but that would normally come through Monday/Tuesday. Worth considering that historically short positions have been quite successful. Not sure why, but I can't pull up the figures. From memory overall win from all short players was around 365million since 2011 (you'd have to verify it as my memory is entirely fallible). Currently, I have WG as the 6th most shorted company on the UK market at 4.04%. There has to be a point at which the SP is so low that risk becomes higher than potential reward, but as I say, historically short players have done well out of WG

James, the shorting possibility for the simultaneous movement of CBG and WG, was something that came from looking who's shorting what. There was overlap between the companies shorting. It's purely speculative, but I thought it possible that at a certain point a companies SP is sufficiently low compared to the viability of the underlying business, that the risk/reward profile starts to look weighted towards risk. Just guessing and the overlap of the shorts might be irrelevant here. I'm long, so hope the SP will rise. I added today, because the buying patterns over some short time frames looked encouraging. Still could be just PI's pumping up PI's. As I said, it could like like a comedy trade this time tomorrow.

Yes, I'm asking that. Did you buy a significant number of WG shares today. You earlier were very confident that an RNS was coming tomorrow, there was hint you thought it was information leaking into the public domain (suggesting todays rise was linked to information to be published tomorrow). If you were truly confident that news would come tomorrow, you'd have bought. I'm trying to establish whether your actions match your words. It would give me an idea whether you really see it as a high probability event.

If you bought, you're confident in your view about news tomorrow. If you didn't, then you're not confident and your posts becomes a bit misleading in that respect i.e. you think it's not a high probability event despite clearly saying that it's going to happen.

I see in a later post you're less confident. I don't know one way or another, but I don't necessarily believe the rise today was specific to WG. I did buy, and I bought because of a pattern of buying that seemed to occuring. I'd happily receive a positive RNS from WG having almost doubled my position, but I don't expect to get an RNS tomorrow. I have no information that suggests to me that an RNS is coming. For me that's simply a guess.

Did you buy a significant number of shares on the basis of this high probability event?

It's a simple question and will make it clear to yourself whether or not you actually believe this is a high probability event, or whether it's something you'd like to see tomorrow as the SP jumped a little today?

Thanks kunal and thesoundman. Makes more sense now

So did you buy a significant number of shares to capitalise on the high probability event?

I would still argue that most RNS'd information is not pre-released to friends etc prior to the public release. PI's love a conspiracy and love the idea that info leaks into the public domain and causes fluctuations in SP's. The reality, particularly with main market stocks is that ships are tight.

No one can see into the future so I can't say you're wrong.

I think you're fooling yourself and giving into confirmation bias. I did suggest YOU was a bad example (very small free float; price moves on low volume), but CBG is a better example. Why did both move at the same time? Could be linked to a single company covering shorts in both, could be utterly unrelated, could be currency related and could be lot's of things. I'm just betting that there will not a WG related RNS in the morning. Also worth considering that most RNS'd info is not released early to aid inside trading. Mostly (not always) things are kept very tight.

On a brighter note, I just found some toffees in the back room. Not sure whose they were, but I like toffees.

I'm not very far into profit and I'm getting all exciteable because I'm so bored. I sit in front of screens all day every day, largely doing sweet FA. Everynow an again there's an alpha particle strike to my hypothalamous that get's me all excited. Hence my 'boom!'. In reality, although being in profit is better than baby sitting a loss, I'm still bored and looking forward to going shopping for a bottle of bread.