Member Info for Stupmy

Here we go! Maybe the drop is over (although I still see a risk of 27), I'm continuing to accumulate.

I can't help thinking that words are cheap Robbie (particularly when it comes to winning an election (even if it's just by the party faithful) and that significant doubt must remain as to what Truss will do now that she's in office and how she will fund it. Personally, I'd not be surprised if a national election was forced early next year and we get Boomerang Boris back.

Niemand mag ein Schlaumeier, aber ich hatte recht!

I actually started entering cautiously around 29 as some buyers arrived at around that point. I'm watching closely as to me I think accumulating will work well and won't take very long to pay off. Todays, drop is presumably precipitated by the continued fall back in Brent, but the moment spot oil prices shouldn't be having such a large impact on the SP. Debt down to 820 million from 1.22 billion in 7mths. I'll keep buying anywhere that buyers seem to get the edge.

"There is a facile argument based on TA that would see us at 27p or lower"

Useful post casapinos, however in the short term something is driving it up. Quite strong today, might achieve 266 or even 280 over the coming days. If you're right about the share overhang though, then we could see some serious stagnation or falls in the future. Spread on this is low so it's great to trade.

29 (Sept 1st) to 33 (Sept 6th) is what I'd call a good rise into results EC.

Absolutely AIM I also believe it's an opportunity and I've started buying (quite possibly a bit early) again. Over time I believe that the SP will increase. I'll simply try to exploit the ups and downs.

Are you sure there are any 'forces' to be rotten to the core KO? Did the SP not simply rise into this announcement in anticipation and is naturally being sold off as those bright enough to buy in the run up, are banking their profits in a very unstable period for general markets?

Read Dumbly's article. In that it's stated that the money will be borrowed by the government, not raised via taxation. Personally, that troubles me as you'd imagine there has to come a point at which we live within our means. Borrowing another 100bn just seems like another step in a chaotic process that will lead to considerable hardship in the future.

Thanks Dumbly, they're good words and fingers crossed give us the space we need to complete our transition.

Taken from your article:

“One thing I absolutely don’t support is a windfall tax. It’s a Labour idea and all about bashing business and it sends the wrong message to international investors and to the public.”

“I don’t think profit is a dirty word, and the fact it has become a dirty word in our society is a massive problem,” she added. “The energy giants, if they are in an oligopoly, should be held to account. And I will rigorously hold them to account, but the way we bandy around the word profit as if it’s dirty and evil, we shouldn’t be doing that as Conservatives.”

Strike, I really do suspect that there's a bit of fear in the air as to how Truss will pay for her energy cap for private individuals and businnes. I hope they're not going to take a 2nd bite of profits from NS oil. We (ENQ) had to stomach POO at 28 and below and now we have the chance to clear the problems that caused for us, we've already been slapped once. Did Truss already express a view on NS oil?

Brent dropping back KO, whether spot price movements should or shouldn't impact stock SP's doesn't matter, they have been doing of late. We're down 6% vs 3% for Harbour. There is a facile argument based on TA that would see us at 27p or lower. The Truss 'wow' factor on the economy is likely to be short lived. I think we're in an environment where people are waking up to the probability that we'll have to pay for yesterdays jam and we might be eating lard sandwiches for a little while.

Look at the entertainment sector (spoons is one example), the Truss factor (capped energy bills) seems to be assumed to impact business as well as individuals. That cap has to be paid for somewhere, so I'd agree there could be more to come as far as tax on NS oil.

Jeffrey, I think you'll find that it'll reverse again and move back up. My view of it from a TA stand (having read the RNS) is that the fall back was very probable and we could even see the SP down at 29p or below, but I'll be buying if we get a sign that it's bottomed around 29.

There are a lot of good sized companies that have dropped 4-6% today. RR is not the only one, that makes me wonder how much impact the pay negotiations are having. Logically, they're likely to be negative wrt to SP, but that doesn't mean that it actually explains the drop.

That makes sense EC.

Patienc only time will tell if 72 is cheap Patience, if it drops to the 60's, 72 will seem high. In case you're interested in a professional view as to whether 72p is cheap or not:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-rr./rolls-royce-holdings-shares/news/is-now-an-opportune-moment-to-examine-rolls-royce-holdings-p

Just done a google search on this and Yahoo finance quotes the lowest daily close on the SP for RR as 38.98 on October 02 2020. Anyone interested can check it using google or the yahoo finance site. SP was below 60 from Sept 20th until Oct 8th. That would appear to be 'definitive'. Best I can do at least.

Chart I'm looking at has the all time low at around 65 in Oct 2020 (taken from weekly chart, 63/64 if looking at daily). Down from an all time high of over 1300 in Jan 2014 and a more recent high of over 1100 in Oct 2018.

1.91% of shares in issue shorted (could be 72h out of date). Not trivial, but not huge either. Not immediately obvious that you'll get a short squeeze strike

Was around 68.5 in Oct 2020. So not true regarding all time low. Be interesting to see whether it retests that area (hopefully to put in a double bottom!). Boris didn't mention RR as far as I could see in this mornings comments (reported comments) on nuclear roll-out. He focussed on EDF. Are RR partnering EDF in that?