Member Info for Stupmy

Strike, I really do suspect that there's a bit of fear in the air as to how Truss will pay for her energy cap for private individuals and businnes. I hope they're not going to take a 2nd bite of profits from NS oil. We (ENQ) had to stomach POO at 28 and below and now we have the chance to clear the problems that caused for us, we've already been slapped once. Did Truss already express a view on NS oil?

Brent dropping back KO, whether spot price movements should or shouldn't impact stock SP's doesn't matter, they have been doing of late. We're down 6% vs 3% for Harbour. There is a facile argument based on TA that would see us at 27p or lower. The Truss 'wow' factor on the economy is likely to be short lived. I think we're in an environment where people are waking up to the probability that we'll have to pay for yesterdays jam and we might be eating lard sandwiches for a little while.

Look at the entertainment sector (spoons is one example), the Truss factor (capped energy bills) seems to be assumed to impact business as well as individuals. That cap has to be paid for somewhere, so I'd agree there could be more to come as far as tax on NS oil.

Jeffrey, I think you'll find that it'll reverse again and move back up. My view of it from a TA stand (having read the RNS) is that the fall back was very probable and we could even see the SP down at 29p or below, but I'll be buying if we get a sign that it's bottomed around 29.

There are a lot of good sized companies that have dropped 4-6% today. RR is not the only one, that makes me wonder how much impact the pay negotiations are having. Logically, they're likely to be negative wrt to SP, but that doesn't mean that it actually explains the drop.

That makes sense EC.

Patienc only time will tell if 72 is cheap Patience, if it drops to the 60's, 72 will seem high. In case you're interested in a professional view as to whether 72p is cheap or not:

https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-rr./rolls-royce-holdings-shares/news/is-now-an-opportune-moment-to-examine-rolls-royce-holdings-p

Just done a google search on this and Yahoo finance quotes the lowest daily close on the SP for RR as 38.98 on October 02 2020. Anyone interested can check it using google or the yahoo finance site. SP was below 60 from Sept 20th until Oct 8th. That would appear to be 'definitive'. Best I can do at least.

Chart I'm looking at has the all time low at around 65 in Oct 2020 (taken from weekly chart, 63/64 if looking at daily). Down from an all time high of over 1300 in Jan 2014 and a more recent high of over 1100 in Oct 2018.

1.91% of shares in issue shorted (could be 72h out of date). Not trivial, but not huge either. Not immediately obvious that you'll get a short squeeze strike

Was around 68.5 in Oct 2020. So not true regarding all time low. Be interesting to see whether it retests that area (hopefully to put in a double bottom!). Boris didn't mention RR as far as I could see in this mornings comments (reported comments) on nuclear roll-out. He focussed on EDF. Are RR partnering EDF in that?

There was no real way to exploit that if the 20% rise is real. Worth considering also, that it could be short covering going into the weekend. But short covering can give a very good profit to those sharp enough to exploit it. Next week will be really interesting.

I have 2.3 close, nearly 20% rise on the day. Strong closes often lead to strong openings. Should be interesting next week.

What do they know? Someone on this very bb called it to be 5p on open this morning. Now that's the sort of view that really matters

That was a very 'light' piece Cloud. No substance at all, was more like an advert for the insolvency group

I have to say that I suspect that if you can call it very well and are very skilled then you could make money by long positions at some point here. From what I can see you'd need a SP movement of 0.1 to get to b/e or better. Clearly that's possible, particularly if there is substantial short closure, which could net big profits for those skilled/lucky enough to enter correctly. But what's more likely is that anyone buying in will lose money (in my view). At around 10p I looked in here and there were people recommending long positions from there. If those people were genuine and actually bought shares, they are currently 80% down after a few days. That gives you an indication of what their views were worth. When the stock-market has so many viable companies, some at what might be considered low valuations, you'd have to be very risk tolerant in my view to be playing with CINE, rather than going for more pedestrian, lower risk markets.

Tommy, would you hold the same view if Cineplex were to win their legal position?

For balance, here's a more negative view (from Argonaut, who have been shorting CINE for 4 years apparently). Looks like they've been calling it right to here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-24/cineworld-short-seller-argonaut-says-shareholders-to-get-nothing-l77h4r1p

I was also shocked EC and went looking for 'the RNS' immediately. Not looked at HFDs for a long time until today, but it appears to represent value at these levels.

It seems to be Pan G being behind the curve, but it also seems that the SP reacted to their update, in which case it might be that your BC's reacted to the SP, but the SP apparently is still reacting to your BC's.
I suspect in todays financial environment that there'll be no rapid substantial recovery in the SP, that's why for the moment I'm in and out of positions more frequently than Gemma Collins is in and out Greggs.

Not just private sector car leasing. The other squeeze is more general, the idea that you can have whatever you want whenevery you want has led to people adding more and more montly plans of 20 quid here 30 there to their outgoings. That side of things has always seemed crazy to me. Currently Sp is 128ish I have that as significant. It's bang on a low from july 2020. If the SP closes above that at the end of play friday, the drop might be over for now at least. I've not entered a position, but view this area as a speculative buy. Once I've resolved positions elsewhere (could be today), I'll be looking for evidence of the SP turning, I'll used stops below 128 and hope that there'll be some upside. Wider market weakness might make this a very feeble plan, but I only need a day of rises to make a profit.