Member Info for Stupmy

Sorry, I should clarify that post, doing too many things at once. I can't seen any reason for the wider stock markets to rise. I'm surprised that ENQ is being hit so hard and would not be surprised to see it rise from here, but for the moment it's on the back foot.

It's a worry, I can't see any reason for it to rise. Part of me is hoping the losses occur primarily to the Icarus shares (Tesla, netflix, amazon et etc), I forget the term that's used for them, but the high fliers that have been responsible for much of the upward trajectory of wide markets. But at the moment, we're being kicked around here despite POO remaining high, good profits, rapid reduction in debt, government policy moving back towards energy independence etc. I, naively apparently, thought we'd hold up well.

It's not just ENQ of NS oil that's being hit. HTG down 35% since June 8th. 16% today after releasing what seem to be market meet figures. At the moment, I'd not call the drops a US market crash, but the US markets are dropping and they're doing a little at a time lulling the bargain hunters into believing it's not a true bear market. Starting to look very dangerous out there. ENQ SP currently testing suppot from March 2021. I'd prefer not to see a close below 24.5, but it doesn't look unlikely. Good lord I wish I'd sold at 36-37ish. On a optimistic note, I have the chart as being 'permissive' of some good upside from here. You'll note I didn't say I think it's going to happen. I've been buying from 25-28 (leveraged positions) and am starting to worry I'll have to drop them. I've not sold any shares, they remain at profit.

Don't forget the potential impact of industrial action, pay-related strikes etc. If the strikes go on for an extend period, the company suffers, if they pay their staff more the company suffers. It's a dreadful time for employees to be working so hard to line their own pockets. They could prove to be the straw that breaks the camels back. It would just speed up automation and reduce the potential for others to get jobs. Big shot in the foot for the unions and the workforce in my view.

I like HTG and I had 216-225 as a potential area where buyers might come in. Time will tell.

Well 3rd time unlucky on that pattern and I'm out for now.

SP did indeed hit 1816 in May 2018

I was thinking the same thing. I didn't spot a problem in the RNS which doesn't mean that there isn't one, but the price is dropping pretty hard. A lot of stuff has come down today, but HTG seems to be outperforming to the downside. Overall the FTSE doesn't seem that bad, POO is high, but something has spooked the SP. Would love to hear from anyone who has a feel for this.

I'm not big on conspiracy theories and rigged markets. It is worth being aware though that owning the media, gives you a fair chance to spin the news. You could argue that spinning the news is like spinning a loaded dice in a game that can pay handsomely. Some will benefit from the falling SP (once again at an all time low) and some will lose. The last 2 times I saw a similar pattern on the 2 h chart, the SP rose pretty well the next day. I've bought a few on the basis that it might happen again.

They bought back 177,000 shares today from memory (I only read it a few minutes ago, that's terrible). Anyway, the RNS is out there as Mulder might say.

Certainly seems that you guys came away from the AGM with good feeling about things. The SP drop on ENQ (ca 6%) looks not to be company specific as BP is also off ca 6%. As I type I have Brent at 11,020, but that data is not the same as the data used by some of you. It's the data from IT finance (IG Markets). Big drop today (ca 6% interestingly).

Well I have to say that it's not obvious that the AGM has set the SP on fire.

I guess the WFT and negative impact on investment in the NS could provide us with the opportunity to buy other assets at sensible prices. Some of them I guess could come online quickly, those that need time to develop might help us reduce our WTF tax burden. Thanks for the feedback from the AGM KO. Looking forward to getting some detail.

Thanks mrc. All very confusing. Most years I drop out of ENQ as the SP rises, but due to high POO and their focus on debt reduction, I held onto my shares during and after this recent rise to 38. I wish I'd used my previous modus operandi that's for sure. But I believed that the ENQ were in the best position they'd been in for years and that the SP rise was justified and would continue. I still do, but I'm unconfortable about this drop in the face of maintained high POO. 6 mths into the year, having paid >130 million in the first 2mths, even with the tax imposed in May/June they should have been able to pay down 350 million year to date. If POO stays high, I guess the figure for the next 6mths might be a little lower as the tax will be relevant for the whole period, but it will still be very high (300 million?). Now, they will be forced to consider upping their expenditure to qualify for tax relief on the WFT which will slow things down, but fingers crossed bring new resource online to compensate for delcines. It still looks like a compelling story to me. But what do I know, I missed the opportunity to sell and buy back here.

US markets still dropping. Starting to look pretty serious to be honest. If it doesn't bounce around 29,600 then it looks like 29,350 area is on the cards. That could affect all of us, whether POO is high or not. Even BP has dropped more than 10% since June 9th.

Cool, I hope you have a blast and you find that all is well with ENQ!

US30 testing 30,000 and I suspect it won't hold. Further falls, like a barn fire will have the race horses running for the hills with the nags. When you think that the DOW was at 8-9,000 in 2009 when QE kicked off, you could argue there's the potential for a lot of falling to be done from here.

Well, it's at an all time low from what I can see. Money raise was at 220 so the institutions that comitted there expect the price to exceed that level in the future. For me chartwise/TA wise difficult to call. I guess you have to decide whether those institutions that bought at 220 know their onions or not. Lots of other companies in and outside the airline sector being hit aswell. Wider market sell off (US indices as well as European indices) suggesting that the bears have control for now. Strike action planned for this month will not help those wishing to travel, that might specifically hurt TUI/airlines. Very troubled times.

I started buying at just over 27. I would say though that there is a possibility that this little turn-around might evaporate if the SP doesn't close above 28.8 (preferably 30.3ish). You have to make a decision somewhere but it could be a bull trap. Longer term I still believe that adding at these levels will pay off.

Apologies VOR, I just skimmed through the thread this morning. I took onboard what had been said by someone else. If it's not true, it's not true. I did state I hadn't verified it. Also as you state, the figures were obvious (450 over 3-4 years). That's the problem with skimming through things.
Also agree that ENQ don't necessarily need to make any announcements. Their view of how the tax will hit us and their plans to balance it vs expenditure will be very interesting when it comes.

Jeffrey, the world of finance and brokers notes doesn't necessarily have to be an honest one. If (I'm getting this from a previous post rather my own research) Barclays used 65% tax on all of our profits rather than using the 25% on profits, the rest being offset against previous tax losses, it could be that they are deliberately painting a picture with darker colours than is necessary. If true, that could be an mistake by an analyst or it could be a deliberate 'oversight' to spook the market. I see the Barclays note as facilitating a drop that was already going to happen. I previously stated we were likely to see 26.5 to 27.5. We're in that range now. So, at this point we have to watch and see whether this holds as an area of technical support (simply an price range where buyers might be more likely to show an interest than at a random level; i.e. rational buyers looking for value), or whether that support fails and we see lower levels. Fundamental research if correct will increase the chances of making successful investment decisions over time (they won't guarantee it as no-one can see into the future), but they also ignore the shorter term price movements dictated by human nature. I personally still believe that this will turn out to be a buying opportunity. I just haven't yet bought more.

KO "We are now screwed and so is our investment". What does that even mean, does it at it's heart mean you're back to b/e and below and worried about it? Personally, I think you're wrong. I think investment will be increased and that although debt repayment has been a priority here over the last few years, that will be somewhat pared back to what needs to be paid (having calculated cost of debt that would be saved by early repayment vs the 25% WFT) so debt repayment will be slowed, talk of dividends will become a little more distant and until end 2025 it'll be a juggling game of bringing more production (even if it's just to compensate declines) into focus vs paying down the debt sensibly.
I hope I'm not being stupid, but I'm still looking to add should it look as if the SP fall is going to reverse.

"Can someone explain why one broker rating has caused such a sell off .....one that us complete tosh....when we get a good rating we rarely go up. I am now knee deep on this and oretry depressed. Someone cheer me up pls."