The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode with London Stock Exchange Group's Chris Mayo has just been released. Listen here.
The outcome of the court case can take months to be known.
Let's see whether, on Thursday, they provide any clarity to their claim in the court documents that they've made substantial loss of business and whether this is continuing.
From the court document:
"12. As a result of Defendants’ misconduct, Tremor has already lost substantial business dependent on the LGE viewership data and is continuing to lose such business, which Tremor would have retained and/or obtained but for Alphonso’s and LGE’s wrongdoing; Tremor’s reputation is being irreparably tarnished; and Tremor’s highly-trained salesforce is at risk."
https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=5yQBD0QoQffyn29kXpficw==
The speed at which trmr changed their minds and listed, with the discounted placing, raises questions and uncertainty and so is a red flag. Their change of mind came amidst the Alphonso dispute.
The need for a US listing became urgent around March time... The Alphonso court case filing was mid-May.
Therefore, they would have known many weeks ago, maybe March, of the dispute with Alphonso. Companies try and resolve the differences before taking court action.
So I think once the dispute with Alphonso was known they felt the need to US list (with the placing) asap. I think because the process to list was the reason behind the early Q1 TU (10 days before Q1 end).
On 10th March, they published the fy account, without firm mention of US listing, they simply said:
"The Company continues to explore, from time to time, the possibility of transactions in the capital markets, including the potential for a dual-listing of shares in the United States. No assurance can be made that any such transaction will be completed in the near term or at all."
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Final-Results-100321.pdf
Yet ONLY 6 days later on 16th March , they published their draft registration for a US listing:
https://www.tremorinternational.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/TRMR-Submission-of-Confidential-Draft-Registration-Statement-for-Proposed-Offering-160321.pdf
That tells me there was a sudden need to list with days of the fy results being published, timing which coincides with the alphonso dispute.
Malbright
"a sure fired trade for the lth’s like me."
I've been saying 'best to trade and not get caught out'.
The rthm(now trmr) sp has long history of rising on bullish comments and then falling on events.
In 2013-14 blnx/rthm(now trmr) sp reach eq £28 before falling back to 400p within 6 months.
Look at pre-IPO, results etc.
The sp reached intra day high of 870p pre-IPO.
My trade at 844p was based on my conviction that they would fall and they did. The sp still hasn't reached the intra day high of 870p pre-IPO.
Question is whether the company provide an update on the Alphonso court case.
A court case where Trmr claim they have lost substantial business.
There you go as expected.
I'll add US peers reporting Q3 results to the list of long awaited events, which have disappointed.
UK close 684p, US close $18.97 eq to 687p UK.
These were supposed to surge on, IPO, Placing, Brokers targets/notes, Q2 results, AGM, etc - now US Qtr 3 results.
The sp has a history of rising on bullish comments and falling after..
These were supposed to surge on:
1) Long awaited IPO. Completed, disappointing reaction.
2) Placing. Deeply discounted placing for a supposedly hot company in a hot sector. Disappointing reaction.
3) Initial broker notes/targets. They weren't significantly higher. Disappointing reaction.
4) Q2 results. Disappointing reaction.
5) New broker notes/targets. Not significantly higher despite the so called strong results. disappointing reaction.
6) AGM. Disappointing reaction.
7) Updated note from Brokers
8) US Peers reporting 3rd Qtr. TTD/Magnite/Perion now reported.
Now what? Ramp on Q3? If not, wait until fy?
Back to vicious circle, US following UK following US, up or down, waiting for the NEXT news... as expected..
The sp is still lower than the intra day high of 870p reached months ago and still lower than my 844p trade from months and months ago!!!.
Best to trade and not get caught out again.
Let's see whether, on Thursday, they provide any clarity to their claim in the court documents that they've made substantial loss of business and whether this is continuing.
Outcomes from court cases can take months to be known, so this could drag on for months.
From the court document:
"12. As a result of Defendants’ misconduct, Tremor has already lost substantial business dependent on the LGE viewership data and is continuing to lose such business, which Tremor would have retained and/or obtained but for Alphonso’s and LGE’s wrongdoing; Tremor’s reputation is being irreparably tarnished; and Tremor’s highly-trained salesforce is at risk."
https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=5yQBD0QoQffyn29kXpficw==
Again, The Trade Desk(TTD) and Trmr operate different business models.
Look at why Telaria demerged from Trmr(as TAP) and went onto to partner with Rubicon to form Magnite.
Below are Telaria(now Magnite) and The Trade Desk's comments on operating the one side of the ad tech model.
The Trade Desk (TTD) previously quoted as saying that their one sided approach was the key to its success...other companies have also ditched both sides...
"Many companies that tried to run ad tech businesses on both sides later have sold one side off: Rubicon shut down buy-side platform Chango, with then-CEO Frank Addante admitting the acquisition was a failure. Tremor Video just sold off its buy-side business to focus on the supply side. Amobee sold its sell-side business to focus only on the buy side. The Trade Desk, which has seen its stock skyrocket post-IPO, consistently cites its single-side, agency-focused approach as a key to its success."
https://adexchanger.com/platforms/appnexus-buy-side-falls-wayside/
****************************************************************************
Telaria (Magnite) reasons for demerging from trmr(TAP). perceived conflict of interest
"Clients were also uneasy with Tremor servicing both the buy- and sell-sides."
"There's always been a little bit of friction because we were selling agencies and advertisers different products while we were representing publishers," Zagorski said. "And the people who plug into that sell-side platform would always be somewhat hesitant to commit to it in a huge way because we had that perceived conflict."
https://adexchanger.com/digital-tv/tremor-video-sells-demand-side-business-taptica-50m/
The crucial point from this Thurs will be if they say anything about the Alphonso court case and their 'substantial loss of business' as they mentioned in the court document.
Currently the court case is not mentioned by media or rns, so many investors are probably not aware.
From the court document:
"12. As a result of Defendants’ misconduct, Tremor has already lost substantial
business dependent on the LGE viewership data and is continuing to lose such business, which Tremor would have retained and/or obtained but for Alphonso’s and LGE’s wrongdoing; Tremor’s reputation is being irreparably tarnished; and Tremor’s highly-trained salesforce is at risk."
https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef/ViewDocument?docIndex=5yQBD0QoQffyn29kXpficw==
Hopefully, we should get an update on new ICS soon.
TLY in the right place at the right time. New proposals have been expected.
"A change in the way services are commissioned – In February 2021, the Department of Health and Social Care published a White Paper which set out a strategic shift away from the focus of competition which underpinned 2012 government reforms and removed some competition and procurement rules. In the future, contracts are expected to be commissioned less through competitive tendering and increasingly through partnerships with trusted and established private sector providers and we fully anticipate Totally being one of these."
http://www.allenbycapital.com/research/research-tot_23_2096080549.pdf
There you go, as expected.
US Peers start to report Q3 results and the sp isn't surging.
US after hours ended at $17 or UK eq 615p....
UK closed at 656p, so expect the sp to open lower on Monday..
As stated, the sp rose on bullish comments and is falling on events.
These were supposed to surge on:
1) Long awaited IPO. Completed, disappointing reaction.
2) Placing. Deeply discounted placing for a supposedly hot company in a hot sector. Disappointing reaction.
3) Initial broker notes/targets. They weren't significantly higher. Disappointing reaction.
4) Q2 results. Disappointing reaction.
5) New broker notes/targets. Not significantly higher despite the so called strong results. disappointing reaction.
6) AGM. Disappointing reaction.
7) US Peers reporting Q3 results. Disappointing reaction.
Now what? Ramp on Q3? If not, wait until fy?
Back to vicious circle, US following UK following US, up or down, waiting for the NEXT news... as expected..
The sp is still lower than the intra day high of 870p reached months ago and still lower than my 844p trade from months ago.
Tricky
Yet again, your post re-confirms you are clueless about the NHS/TLY and their business models.
"As for 'planned Care' 'Another spike in Corona and the elective procedures (operations) are put on hold,"
Planned care is Physio, Referrals etc. That has nothing to do with Elective procedures being put on hold. Elecitive procedures is TLY's 'insourcing', not 'Planned Care' division.
"Next 'In-sourcing' - well the massive NHS staffing shortages are hardly looking promising either."
Insourcing works in evenings and weekends using consultant's CURRENT free time.
Consultants normally work for NHS and privately, it's nothing new.
The NHS restrict the amount of time they can work within the NHS.
If there's staffing shortages and consultant's are not free then waiting lists will only increase until the consultants are free. Given TLY's insourcing division started only 2 yrs ago, any increase in waiting times will mean more work for TLY 'insourcing division' down the line.
Try keeping up.
https://www.totallyplc.com/our-businesses/totally-healthcare/
Malbright
"is definitely a stock to move in and out of at the right time. "
You mean 'best to trade and not get caught out' as I've suggested for months.
As expected, also looks like that ad-tech bubble I've warned about is deflating faster than before.
My 844p trade from months ago still looking great.
US Peer Magnite reported Q3 results this evening. Despite exceeded expectations on the bottom line, the sp has fallen, after hours, by around 10%
" Our business continued to show substantial leverage as we exceeded expectations on the bottom line."
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/11/03/2326882/0/en/Magnite-Reports-Third-Quarter-2021-Results.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MGNI/
The sp is currently down about 10%, currently showing $24.50 (9pm GMT), significantly lower than the sp at Q1, Q2.
Magnite:
Q1 10/05 $33.47
Q2 09/08 $34.26
current: $24.50
High: 09/02 $64.39
Eddie
"Increased 111 calls are one prime example"
That just shows that you are talking rubbish and are clueless.
They receive money for their NHS 111 contracts, not per call. Those contracts have a range for normal number of calls expected. If the number of calls exceeds it then they receive an additional payment.
Despite some parts of their business being closed (planned division, insourcing) due to covid, they STILL INCREASED revenues, adj ebitda and cash.
Even though they are not covid dependant.
Therefore, you're talking rubbish..
Fy results:
revenue £113.7m (fy2020 £105m)
underlyingadj Ebitda £5m fy2020 £4m
Cash £14.8m (fy2020 £8.9m)
Eddie
"This otherwise would have been in 60-70p SP range ( during the biggest Pandemic in recent history) if investors thought TLY was capable and operated optimally."
Please explain why the pandemic should have resulted in the sp surging?.
They are not covid dependant.
I think it's too little too late to be making those changes. They should have been done years ago...
Given they are already in H2, I think a profit warning is still on the cards..
From the company's results, only published in Sept:
"In the short-term, revenue from product sales in the new financial year to date has been hindered by closed venues from extended lockdowns, new competition, and an excess of inventory. However, the market does now appear to be stabilising and management now expect product sales for FY22 at a level some 10 to 20% below those for FY21: an exceptional year which was itself over 90% ahead of FY20."
https://byotrolplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/FY21-RNS-final.pdf
Tricky,
Here you go as you are clueless as to how the NHS/TLY model works.
It's not all about NHS 111. They even provide GP Out of Hours services.
;-)
And Urgent Care division is just 1 of their 3 divisions. The other 2 being Planned Care and Insourcing divisions.
"Urgent Care Division
Within its Urgent Care Division, Totally works in partnership with the NHS to provide a full range of Urgent Care Services including NHS 111, GP out-of-hours (GPOoHs), Clinical Assessment Services (CAS) and Urgent Treatment Centres (UTCs), through its subsidiary businesses across England. To learn more about how this works watch our short video below."
https://www.totallyplc.com/about-us/
Tricky,
"I would go straight to A&E or dial 999"
That's fine, that's your choice, if you wish to spend hours in A&E.
Lots of hospitals have an Urgent Care Centre where non-life threatening cases are dealt with. If A&E triage thinks your case is non-life threatening then they are likely to direct you to the Urgent Care Centre.
TLY's Urgent Care Division provides Urgent Care Centres as well as NHS 111... That's handy, isn't it?
Well what else would you expect from a leading Out of Hospital provider.
;-)
Btw, The NHS 111 can book you an appt with A&E, so saving you hours waiting in the waiting area.
NHS guidelines:
"When to visit an urgent treatment centre (walk-in centre or minor injury unit)"
"If you're not sure what to do
NHS 111 can help if you need urgent medical help or you're not sure what to do.
They will ask questions about your symptoms so you get the help you need.
If you need to go to A&E, NHS 111 will book an arrival time. This might mean you spend less time in A&E. This also helps with social distancing. "
https://www.nhs.uk/nhs-services/urgent-and-emergency-care-services/when-to-visit-an-urgent-treatment-centre-walk-in-or-minor-injury-unit/
As well as TV, NHS 111 also being promoted in the media.
Use NHS 111 online service to protect busy A&Es, says health chief
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/01/use-nhs-111-online-service-to-protect-busy-aes-says-health-chief
Use NHS 111 website rather than A&E for non life-threatening illnesses, says NHS director
Professor Stephen Powis warns of a ‘winter like no other’ amid pressures from Covid and seasonal flu
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/11/01/use-nhs-111-website-rather-ae-non-life-threatening-illnesses/
Tough
"The next day it closed at 822p...."
The day after (26th May) the sp reached intra day high of 870p...
But that was all pre-IPO and the discounted placing.
They then had the IPO and sp hasn't recovered to pre-IPO levels.
That is despite the long awaited IPO, discounted placing, brokers notes, Q2 results the sp hasn't reached the 870p, the sp reached pre-IPO.
My 844p trade months and months ago was well timed..
;-)
As expected, watch:
Placing.
Court Cases.
Overhang.
All have happened here.
There's a campaign telling patients to call NHS 111 instead of attending A&E.
The campaign is called "Think 111 1st" and is to promote 111 to reduce A&E waiting times.
This was expected as NHS 111 was promoted as the 1st port of call during covid and worked well.
Public urged to use NHS 111 service to get advice quickly ahead of 'winter like no other'
https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2021-11-01/public-urged-to-use-nhs-111-service-for-advice-ahead-of-winter-like-no-other
Thordon,
Thank you. I read the company/sector newsflow. Also the company has a history of placings, court cases.
Even though proven right, you'll find the gang will still claim that I was wrong. lol
They'll say anything to gain reader's confidence and pull the wool over reader's eyes.