Member Info for StrollerB

Khukov: As at last night

1357.706m shares bought back
£824m calculated cost
98 trading days out of 207
Circa 500m new shares issued as at end of June

TVR 31/05 70.957b reduction of 393m v buy back 826m

TVR 28/02 71.350b
TVR 29/03 71.196b buy back 167m
TVR 30/04 70.864b buy back 360m
TVR 31/05 ?????? buy back 298m Total 826m cost calculated £516m

Share buy back to date =781.977m at a calculated cost of £492m

Since 1st May daily spend has been between £8.2m and £8.4m irrespective of SP.

If they carry on at the current rate they will complete the £1750m buy back by 31st December.

CF mumbled his way through. Gave the impression of a man waiting for the gallows. Expected slick and upbeat. Poor show. There rest of board similar demeanor. Yield on bonds expected to be I.R.O. 10/12%

Anyone on here attending Tuesday's EGM ?

Buy backs for

March 171m v 154m reduction
and
April 378m v 332m reduction

Now over $69 per barrel and rising.

I counted 211 trading days from 1st March to 31st December.
To spend £1.750b requires an average of £8.3m per day
So far 17 days trading expenditure circa £98.8m v £141.1m run rate.
Alternatively @. 62/63p per share circa 2.8b shares or 13.2m per day
So far 17 days purchased 156.4m v 224.4m run rate .

Don't forget they issued circa 500m new shares last year. I see no reason to believe they will not do the same or more this year.

It started on 1st March - See RNS.

As an aside I am assuming the following to see if LLOY are ahead or behind an average rate of daily buy back.

1) they will spend all £1.75 billion
2) Avg purchase price. 65p
3) 200 trading days March to December

This equals approx 11.5m purchases per trading day.
3)

3000 bopd is realistically at the limit of what could be achieved shipping by road from one site. Much beyond that really would require pipelines being installed. That in it self would almost certainly require top level government support . Don't get me wrong. I believed that when I invested 18 months ago. Have not changed my mind or sold my core holding.

Stage 2 funds will be raised and the mine built. Of that I have no doubt. The only questions are who will fund it and how. In my opinion there is to much money and political risk to allow it to fail.

Most arguments re brexit seem to focus on the harm to UK if no deal is reached.
Try looking at it from the opposite side.
EU bureaucrats are terrified of the implications of a UK exit on anything other than penal terms due to the potential damage to their grand design. On the other hand you have the politicians who have to sell any or no deal to their voters and survive the possible economic fall out.

Is it realistic for Spain, Portugal , Italy and Greece to disrupt the millions of tourists who flock to their countries and fuel their economies ? How are the French and Spanish farmers going to react if they can no longer get their fresh produce to the UK .Queues at the continental ports will make operation stack look insignificant as their are roughly 4 times more lorries bringing goods into the UK than leaving it. Eire goods for EU transit through the UK . Avoid the disruption going by sea. Dream on. German manufacturers will love the thought of their supply chains being broken and spending billions of pounds relocating manufacturing facilities back home only to struggle through the tunnel to get their goods back into the UK market.

A no deal will be painful , very painful for the UK but rest assured the pain will be felt across Europe and in some of the countries least able to deal with it. Will pragmatism or ideology win ? I hope pragmatism.

I for one want a deal but will not accept being bullied into it .

Nice to see the SP rise , ahead of dividend payout.

For those of us who opted to take it in shares what price an immediate drop on payout day ?

Why not make £600m bonds to the market at 6/7% in £50/100k lots redeemable in da2028. I for one would take it up.

Shorts closing this morning ?

but a large part of the car is made from oil based products as is the equipment used to recharge the car

28/02 TVR 72.086b SP 68.34p

Buy back 1.578b

31/0/ TVR 71.133b SP 59.30p

Reduction in TVR 0.953b

New shares issued 0.625b

I posted this earlier today on another BB.

Right now I am as confident as I can be that HH site will be in production mode in 2019. The fun will start when they apply for planning permission. Currently restricted to vehicle movements , I believe to 20 per week. Not sure if this means 10 in and 10 out or 20 vehicles. They are also restricted to week days plus a bit of Saturday.
Based on current time restrictions each 1000bopd equates to 6 loads per day. At 3000bopd you have 18 loads which I suggest is a logistical headache and probably unacceptable to both CC and residents.

If as we , I , hope the vertical well produces 1000bopd it is likely that one horizontal well should produce at least double that. The only practical solution I can think of is to lay a pipeline. Laying an underground pipeline will not be quick , cheap , or easy to get planning permission for and will be further complicated if and when multiple sites come on stream.

For all the reasons above I am convinced that UKOG will be either be bought out by a major or at a minimum enter into a partnership with a major for reasons of expertise , finance and political clout.

Will be interesting to see how this all unfolds.

Should read 72.086 billion shares in issue at 28/02