Member Info for Strike123

Absolutely agree with you Investerintheknow regarding the spending in the pandemic but Boris and Rishi together made that decision of giving out cheques. Had Boris not listened to Chris Whitty and to his appalling modelling for cases, there wouldn't have been that much money spent. Eat out Help out scheme was the worst as it had helped increase the cases! Stamp duty cut was also another horrible decision. Lessons have been learnt now hopefully.

Investerintheknow, it is not just Sunka who resigned when Boris was PM. There were 42 MPs that resigned as well and they all thought Boris needed to step down. Remember Boris also said he cannot help with the cost of living crisis! With inquiry going on against Boris, it is best for him to stay away for now.

Sunak is a hedge fund manager, he knows what to do with the current crisis. Market likes it, pound is up and hopefully rates go down. Next Monday fiscal plan is crucial. As long as there is no big spending, markets would welcome the plan.
CNBC already says time to take a look at unloved, cheap UK stocks. Hopefully RR is one of them!

I bloody hope it is soon back to $300.
With Tesla now having investment grade rating more funds hopefully will buy in.

"When Starship gets sorted. The massive payloads it will be able to launch into space will provide millions $ of turnover.
it would be nice to have a few shares there.
"
Exactly my thoughts too regarding acquiring shares in Starlink. I think Elon would merge Starlink with Tesla at some point or Tesla holders acquire shares in Starlink. I'm sure he will use Twitter to share all such ideas. Hedge funds shorting Tesla would run for the hills on any such posts on Twitter.

You can easily guage the Ukraine's response to Elon. Ukraine pretends to be the nicest one than Russia but the reality is that their mentality is just same as Putin except that they could not invade Russia as they are a smaller country. It is us West are the fools supporting Ukraine and destroying our economies.

What worries is Elon's social media announcements that hurts the sentiment of Tesla investors but again things like Twitter are his own business and not related to Tesla. Tesla as such is doing very well and we just need to hope that all big investors also see it that way. Tesla is miles away from the competitors. With oil prices set to stay high for next few years, there will be more EV sales! With semi truck also being produced from next year and another economic model of released then EV market will be dominated by Tesla for years to come. But always need to keep any eye on the macro situation. I think the current slide in the price is minor blip. By November, price could be back to 300 again! I sold at 290 and started buying at various prices from 275 to all the way down to 211. I will be buying more at these prices. Currently hold close to just 100 shares.

Although I would like Tories to be removed as markets have lost confidence on them but calling a general election will add more uncertainty as we can have a new a PM within a week now whereas with GE it is another 2-3 months lost time and adds more volatility in the markets. May be calling GE is better after Tories made a total mockery of UK with utter political and economic shambles. Country is ready to spit on the face of these Tory idiots. Bloody disgraceful.

Tories making another mistake calling Boris back. He is happily having holiday in Caribbean island giving a middle finger to the cost of living crisis that UK is facing due to his party. Media will lambast him if he gets elected considering the reasons why he had to quit and there is still investigation in progress against his actions. Don't think even Sunak should be elected considering his wife's business and her residential status questioned recently. Hunt seems to be the one with clean history.

Short sellers totally in control of almost all UK stocks. We didn't had short sellers in the July downtrend as it was EIG mainly reducing the stake but once they finished selling buybacks pulled the price up. If no buybacks announced this time then don't think we will see the rise above 400p like last time sadly. If EIG and Noble too start selling again along with short sellers and with no buybacks then very difficult for the price to go up. Problem is not with the HBR business as it is racking lot of money but we still don't have big buyers and bloody EIG and Noble keep dumping. Until uptrend is seen no point in buying back again. Even becoming debt free is not going to help unless we have serious buying from institution investors. With the current political turmoil no interest for investing in UK unfortunately. Closer to the update short sellers might reduce on the fear of buyback announcement but if there is none then down it will go on results day. I guess I will wait till the results update before buying in.

True Billy, the numbers are good but nowadays market just need a reason to take the stock down for supporting their shorts.
I could find only one article that had a positive headline about Tesla Q3 numbers -

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/tesla-inc.-q3-profit-increases-beats-estimates

Tesla Q3 profits increased YoY and is now getting ready with the delivery of semi truck from next year!
Energy business is making money.
I'm slowly adding as the current price is at $600 in old money! Way too undervalued!

Charles-Henry Monchau, chief investment officer at Banque Syz:

“Liz Truss as a PM was an unsustainable position. The new PM has a lot to do to restore credibility with markets. In a few weeks time, we have moved from ultra loose fiscal policy to tight ones. High political and macro volatility implies high market volatility. There is now a relief rally from the pound (back to pre mini budget) and gilts but this might be short lived due to political uncertainty. Growth forecasts for next year are at risk. We nevertheless turn more positive on UK equities as risk reward looks attractive.”

Rishi Mishra, an analyst at Futures First:

“It’s positive for both the pound and gilts in the long run because this episode will remind every candidate in the future to not undermine the credibility of the government by making outlandish spending plans.”

Alessandro Barison, a portfolio manager at HI Numen Credit Fund:

“Truss leaving does not change the impact of the energy crisis and hyperinflation in UK.”

“A more credible government might decrease the UK risk perception, but doesn’t change the energy picture. After an initial rally in gilts, we wonder who is the marginal international buyer of UK assets to finance government and trade deficit. A lower fiscal deficit than under Truss means lower growth. We are bearish on gilts, UK credit and UK banks.”

Peter Chatwell, head of global macro strategies trading at Mizuho International Plc:

“The calamitous government has come to an end, which means the risk of a sterling currency crisis is much smaller. We still have a very unstable government, but at least the chance of another attempt at abandoning fiscal orthodoxy is close to zero.”

“What the market can do here is price out tail risks, but not get too excited about a fundamental recovery. The UK is heading into (if not in already) a very deep recession but one where imported inflation will remain very problematic. Only once UK real rates are comfortably above US real rates will the economy be able to stabilize and attract material foreign investment.”

"However, ITV has “upside risk” from the World Cup and is one of the “preferred plays” for UBS’s sector analysts, with a ‘buy’ rating and a 135p share price target that offers more than 130% upside to the last close price."

World Cup will be definitely be a big boost for ITV.
Good thing with ITV is that it goes ex-dividend before the trading update. Usually companies goes ex-dividend after the trading update leading to a continuous fall.

As we get closer to trading update, upward momentum for share price starts considering Times article valuing ITV Studios alone to be more than $2Bn so we are currently very much undervalued. Atleast £1 if not £1.35 as per UBS.

If ITV shows increase in subscribers however small it is, I think market should welcome it ?
Ad free streaming for a subscription or free subscription with ads is a win-win approach ?

I think tomorrow is the last day to buy to get dividends? Goes ex-dividend on Thursday

The West doesn't want Russia to reintegrate. Peace negotiations looked nailed on in March until Boris went to Ukraine and told Zelensky to agree to nothing and to keep the war going as long as possible. The aim is to try and topple Putin and knock Russia off it's perch before the western world devolves into hunger and civil war. At the moment the latter looks more likely than the former.

America has been threatening Russia and even Germany with sanctions for 10 years over Nordstream. Now the pipeline is complete, the US want to ensure that Europe doesn't help Russia integrate by developing a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia. The United States wants Europe totally dependent and under the boot of the rogue United States. America is willing to spill the last Ukrainians blood and watch half of Europe descend into famine to protect their interests. The British government is also happy to be first in line to sadistically destroy our peoples lives. Destroying pensions, high mortgages rates and FTSE going back to what it was in 2010 and earlier. Utter shambles. Need a new party.

Short increased before the results. Now they might start to reduce or keep the position flat until Lizz mess is sorted out. It is now all about Lizz and Kwasi. Airlines are doing good. Next summer will be bumper but thought same this summer too. No one expected such massive cancellations. Demand is back despite economy so feeling confident next year. This time next year EASYJET would be double of current price. 700p easy.

One positive thing I like is that they are projecting higher cash flow than 2019, which was £400m and their guidance remains unchanged as per last trading update. In their September investors , they mentioned - "comfortably exceeding operating profit" and going by their graphs it would be "comfortably exceeding" 2019 levels!!!
The share price in 2019 was "comfortably exceeding" £2.00, 200p so current share price is at bargain basement levels.

Thanks for pointing out the Appendix page.
It appears like they seem to consider spot rates than the fixed fx conversion. There is a cost to pay if the fx rate exceeds the hedged $1.53 otherwise no cost for anything under $1.53 ? This is what is mentioned in the PDF -

RollsRoyce hedges transactional FX

• Foreign exchange Transactional exposure arises when revenue currencies differ from cost currencies
• Achieved rate is not typically affected by shortterm spot rate movements unless new cover is taken; this impact is usually diluted
• $21 billion GBP:USD hedge book
• Hedge book average rate is £/$1.53
• $3 billion EUR:USD hedge book
• Hedge book average rate is €/$1.24
• Each 1 $ cent change in the £/US$ hedge rate impacts u/l op profit and cash by £25-30m

USD hedge book cash costs of closing out over-hedge position :

• costs are included in Group FCF definition.
• 2022 2026 are future cash outflows

£m 2021 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Cash cost 186 452 326 389 £321m across 2024-26

Barondog, I have heard several thousand times talking about bad hedges but could you please point out where in the trading update you see it mentioning that fx is hedged at $1.53 for the foreseeable future?

I tried searching for it in the previous trading update but could not find it. RR mentioned that in 2021, exchange rate was hedged at $1.39 whereas for 1st half 2022, it was hedged at $1.50 and that's all I could read. With the current exchange rate being much lower, I expect their hedged conversion would be around $1.20 or even less.