Member Info for Strike123

110p broken!
Minvest, you were right about 110p being broken soon and despite going down last few days, you kept the positivity!
This is clearly heading to 120p and should be hit before March.

If you are reading this blog then be aware that your going to get burnt with your short position. There are many that are closing including Kintbury and Naya Capital. Watch and learn from them.

Barclays also believes that RR is worth £1.45 and above. With £2bn debt paid off and remaining in low fixed interest and revenue coming from the big China reopen, how the hell do you think balance sheet is constrained? Tufan invited you for the presentation and still you are skeptical about long haul travel? If you are basis is on third world war or another covid variant impacting long haul travel then your hopes will be dashed soon. Second half of the year, inflation will come down to half across the globe and equities will rally big including RR.

No matter how ridiculous targets you come up with, RR is undervalued. With China reopening and no further lockdowns, long haul aviation is back in business and RR has over quarter of revenue from China for it's aviation revenue and that is opening big. There is a huge demand for travel as can be seen with the performance of the travel stocks. RR current price is way too undervalued.

I think RR went down yesterday along with rest of the market because of threat from Russia about nuclear war.
Now that the news is old, price should start to climb again.
Read an article yesterday that fund managers in US investing in emerging markets and European markets since December and still they are not fully in so I imagine those funds will easily wait for £1.50 or even higher before cashing in as the travel is picking up and we are still in January so I expect lot more upside to come in next few months.

This analysis was written before China announced reopening earlier than expected too.

Good observation Davejm! With travel getting back to normal and with China reopening, RR will no doubt make money from flying hours. I love how BA is advertising on Radio about the holidays. RR will benefit this year and am hoping to see £1.50 at some point this year. It could be by June/July like in 2021. There is lot of money sitting on sidelines and RR is already one of the top 10 holdings among UK stocks! It is for a reason as it is undervalued.

Since pandemic, 2 times the price reached £1.50 so that is where it is heading clearly and this time it could breach £1.50 to new high this year. Second half is predicted to be much better for economy and equities and am sure almost everyone will be in profit or break even like RedInky who bought at 148p. Just need few more months of patience.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4562946-rolls-royce-returns-are-coming-finally

RR is trading at 8.2x EV/2024E EBITA. RR's peer comps are currently trading at 11x EV / 2024E operating income. So valuing RR at 10x EBITA should be fair/slightly conservative. RR should generate at least £1.2B in FCF from now through 2024, so the current net debt of £1.2B ex-leases should become 0. To simplify, I assume the value of Provisions, investments in JV and Associates, Post Retirement Surplus, and Net DTA stay the same. I get £1.35 per share valuation (see Table 5 for calculations) in 2024E, or a 24% internal rate of return (IRR).

The most recent Trading Update stated that 2022 YTD EFHs are only at 62% of 2019 levels, and only 65% for the four months through October 2022. So RR will not hit £750M FCF this year.

However, management does state that the £750M FCF includes £300M hedge book costs and £100M-£200M Trent 1000 costs. If I tax effect £300M of hedge book costs and £200M of Trent 1000 costs at the consensus effective tax rate of 28%, that's an additional £360M of normalized FCF power. So the true FCF power excluding one-time costs is £750M + £360M = ~£1.1B. With peers trading at 20x 2023E FCF and 16x 2024E FCF on average, a 15x FCF multiple seems reasonable/conservative. RR should generate at least £500M in FCF now through 2023E, so net debt ex leases should be down to £700M. So if RR meets all the conditions required for £750M FCF in 2023 and one-time costs with the hedge book and Trent 1000 pass, then RR shares should be worth £1.92 per share in 2023 as shown in Table 6 - that's a 121% return.

RR should have FCF power of £1.3B in 2024E if EFHs fully recover to 2019 levels based on management guidance. If assuming RR has no net debt by 2024E and keep Provisions, investments in JV & Associates, Post Retirement Surplus and Net DTA the same, then RR shares should be worth £2.37 (shown in Table 7) in 2024E for an IRR of 65%

FRIDAY'S RNS did not create any false hope of a larger award

Feels that's right,it didn't create any false hope. Bloody rules force companies to issue such needless RNS . As of ppl will lose money but in Ns case company is getting money and it is not a false hope that company is getting money. Investors are excited about the reward but doesn't need RNS to be issued. They think they are trying people not to lose money but the RNS actually caused investors to lose money. It is fcking ridiculous rules but the useless FCA I guess.

Gigawitt, do you think what you post is not tumbleweed? You are an attention seeker.

N was forced to issue the RNS. They actually don't need to issue that RNS after Friday's one but they were forced to by the NOMAD. I have seen this being forced on with other companies too. Like ODX. I had a chat with CEO of ODX and asked him why they issued RNS alerting market as if nothing is certain. SP was flying high in 90s for ODX and next day morning RNS was issued as told by nomad. CEO said to me that he didn't wanted to issue RNS but was forced. Eventually the positive news that market was waiting landed for ODX but SP was battered by then but SP bounced high again so same will happen here.

For N, the big amount of 9 figure will be awarded whether it is 500m or more or less is not known but nomads and CEOs read this chat board. Believe it or not. Even ODX CEO and several other CEOs read this chat. BT is definitely disappointed to see price falling off the cliff but the positive news will land, be patient. If you sell out others will grab it.

yes, flying hours are going to be increasing from this year and can't see any downturn.
Some called me that I gambled money on RR when this was in 70s. I know I have "invested" and not gambled.
£1.20 coming soon and £1.50 by summer.

As Samsung agreed for settlement I assume that they don't have any other supplier other than Nano for the technology ?

If above is the case then I think the 9 figure settlement will be in the upper range than lower in which case current SP is a bargain.

Big funds won't buy it now although risk is gone but the reward for buying now may not be as big as they want. Considering the drop by EOD on Friday it is a bit surprise but I suppose profit taking always happens. Still not clear why take profits so early when there is so much potential. Considering Samsungs $225bn+ mcap and if TV business contributes even 20% revenue then I guess there is potential for a huge reward for Nanoco provided Samsung doesn't have any other provider other than Nano for the technology.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1002529/rolls-royce-and-ba-owner-iag-among-only-three-london-stocks-in-favour-with-younger-investors-1002529.html

Clearly they have data of everything. Data about what stocks investors hold including the average age of the investor is just unbelievable. Althought this data is not public but the bigger funds and investors can get hold of the data if they need and easily can control the share price too. Just need some news to move the share price either up or down to make others believe why the price moved.

Good to see that RR is in the top 10 holdings among the investors. First of all price shouldn't have dropped below £1 in 2022. If the FED can put brakes on rate hikes then mammoth rally on the cards this year at some point.

Justthisonce, you have repeated many times now that you have sold. Don't make it too obvious that you are desperate for a lower entry and deramping. All that you mentioned is distraction and noise.
Look at Jefferies note and other articles that state why Rolls shares are going to rally this year. It is the travel with wife body jets that is picking up this year with China easing restrictions and countries welcoming Chinese travellers, RR will be making money out of flying hours this year for sure and that is the reason for rally. You can try to stop the rally with your comments but sky is clear for RR share price to fly this year.

Any improvement in Flying hours will definitely lift the price to £1.50 this year. With 1st week of Jan gone, no big signs of covid disruption to travel other than countries seeking negative covid test from Chinese, which is not an issue as we all travelled last year producing covid test results without issues. With Chinese New Year on the way, there will be lot of travel. If you see loads of Chinese visitors near London Eye and Big Ben then you can happily bet on RR share price to go up to £1.50 easily!
RR easily worth £1.50 in the current climate. When flying hours exceed 2019 levels, £2.50 easily next year IMO

We are still 6 months away from Summer and price is already £1+
£1.20 at some point before Summer easily IMO
Jefferies have £1.25 price target.

people in the UK and most of Europe have been told to switch off Christmas lights and save energy so that we can help Ukraine.
Well, they can just fc.uk off. Enough is enough.
By now people can surely see this for what it is.

Fordm, I have been saying the same thing since April. Western govts are ok to let people suffer with high interest rates and high fuel rates while supporting UKRAINE. How the hell are they helping Ukraine people. Those people want food and shelter and not weapons but yet Mr Z wants more weapons to fight the war! He doesn't want to compromise! Just like how money was wasted due to covid lockdowns, this war is another waste of money yet govts want to support the war! Now one would say am supporting Putin but am not. My suggestion is to negotiate with Putin rather than fueling the war.

It is a big contact which analysts have said will boost the revenues of RR significantly yet RR did not RNS it! Believe me RR would like to RNS all the press releases they do on their website but they are stopped by the NOMAD rules. It is simply crazy that companies are not allowed to RNS such big news. I had a chat with a CEO of a LSE listed pharmaceutical company. They almost bagged a bit contract and the news got leaked and share price starting riding crazily by 30% then suddenly NOMAD forced the CEO to issue RNS that contract was still yet to finalize and the 30% rise suddenly lost! You know what the contract eventually landed albeit in few days later and when company issued RNS about the contract, it was "priced in" with SP not budging at all! Who is to be blamed?

Analysts like JPM ones are allowed to throw a finger in the air numbers with ridiculous target price and prince goes down as a result yet it is ok for FCA but when a company tries to publish a positive news, it is seen as an attempt to prop up the price! Really? What a load of bull**** it is!

RR is atleast releasing the news through their own website and we investors should atleast pick up that news and publish it here and some are doing that great job! Thank you to them!

All the also trades will get fycked up if there is a RNS as some of those trades are done based on the news! Remember a betaville post about a bid for RR caused 20% rise! It ended on a Friday evening at 110p when it was hoovering in 80s until that point! Bloody shorts keep holding the price down but remember Barclays recently said RR is worth near 150p and we had Seeking Alpha with deep analysis on the earnings came up with price targets to the north of £2!

RR is easily worth £1.50 and more. It is the bloody market forces that don't want it to run away.

With demand for shares killed by none other than Elon, it looks like the past hike in prices will not be seen any longer even with big positive news. Sentiment is all that matters. I'm not sure how Elon is going to attract even retail investors with all the crap that he is carrying.
Price targets are being lowered
Competition could be growing
Demand for vehicles could slow down
Elon keeps selling shares

Even if all of the above is reversed very difficult from here to go back to previous highs.

What a fool is Elon!

If and only if the money comes back to growth stocks at some point in future then along with wider market rally Tesla share price could pick up some momentum. Fyck you Elon

I'm on a holiday in US traveled via BA on Thursday. Fight was totally full. T5 was jam packed. It was a two deck flight and it was full on a weekday. There was a delay due to icy conditions but overall happy. Pretty sure BA flights will be full this holiday season.

Looks like SP about to take off just on Twitter poll by Elon!
Also Pepsi's Semi truck delivery in 2023 with battery packs enabling 400-500 mile journey, which is awesome!
Just need Elon to break off from Twitter and they is all investors want!
Share price oversold clearly.

Thank you Phyl for sharing the article. The analyst had a detailed assessment of RR unlike the finger in the air number from JPM!

Some snippets from the article for those who rubbish any positive bits and also for those who are invested and don't have time to read the article -

RR is trading at 8.2x EV/2024E EBITA. RR's peer comps are currently trading at 11x EV / 2024E operating income. So valuing RR at 10x EBITA should be fair/slightly conservative. RR should generate at least £1.2B in FCF from now through 2024, so the current net debt of £1.2B ex-leases should become 0. To simplify, I assume the value of Provisions, investments in JV and Associates, Post Retirement Surplus, and Net DTA stay the same. I get £1.35 per share valuation (see Table 5 for calculations) in 2024E, or a 24% internal rate of return (IRR).

The most recent Trading Update stated that 2022 YTD EFHs are only at 62% of 2019 levels, and only 65% for the four months through October 2022. So RR will not hit £750M FCF this year.

However, management does state that the £750M FCF includes £300M hedge book costs and £100M-£200M Trent 1000 costs. If I tax effect £300M of hedge book costs and £200M of Trent 1000 costs at the consensus effective tax rate of 28%, that's an additional £360M of normalized FCF power. So the true FCF power excluding one-time costs is £750M + £360M = ~£1.1B. With peers trading at 20x 2023E FCF and 16x 2024E FCF on average, a 15x FCF multiple seems reasonable/conservative. RR should generate at least £500M in FCF now through 2023E, so net debt ex leases should be down to £700M. So if RR meets all the conditions required for £750M FCF in 2023 and one-time costs with the hedge book and Trent 1000 pass, then RR shares should be worth £1.92 per share in 2023 as shown in Table 6 - that's a 121% return.

RR should have FCF power of £1.3B in 2024E if EFHs fully recover to 2019 levels based on management guidance. If assuming RR has no net debt by 2024E and keep Provisions, investments in JV & Associates, Post Retirement Surplus and Net DTA the same, then RR shares should be worth £2.37 (shown in Table 7) in 2024E for an IRR of 65%

I will sleep well tonight! Hope you all too!

I don't own Tesla but do you care to say why you regret buying it? All my friends who bought are very happy and recommended Tesla!

Tesla is working on a $25k priced hatchback and could release that in 2023. Once released, VW, Ford etc will struggle to win the race! People always want something new and exciting and not old boring cars, which have the same look even though they are EVs. Tesla is still in demand and the numbers are exceeding the previous quarters. Low demand speculation is just a speculation. Media likes spreading negative news about Tesla ignoring the positives. Tesla China dismissed the production cuts yet media keeps writing about it in every article!