Member Info for Strider4

Doubtless that Marathon Gold is flavour of the moment (they're in the discovery phase of the mining cycle - completely different situation to CNR which is well into the permitting/feasibility stage, well known for being the worst time to be invested!). As I said, with that sort of early result the market is probably expecting a 5 million ouncer. Investors do love a bonanza set of drill results.

Marathon Gold - isn't that the one that had a recent big find? The reason it is valued as such, I would imagine, is because the market is expecting plenty more to come - i.e they've clocked up 2 million with just the first round of drilling. Happy to be corrected if I've got my facts in a twist.

Seingred, well your tactics certainly beat the buy-in and hold forever more technique employed by LTHs, but there's still room for improvement! I see nothing compelling in either the chart or the current fundamentals that suggests this is the bottom.

LOL - it's easy to tell when someone is nervously trying to defend their short! They start hammering the bulletin board, looking more and more desperate each time. Net cash of ~�47 million (up from �43 million last year) and an mcap of just over �60 million did I hear you say?

Fair enough, but confusingly the 31/03/17 RNS states: "Condor Gold (AIM: CNR) is pleased to announce that, following a Placing which raised �5.242 million (See RNS dated 20th February 2017), work is now underway on a 10,000 m drilling programme for 2017 at the La India Project, Nicaragua (the "La India Project"). This will have dual objectives, being (i) resource expansion- to increase the existing mineral resource (18 Mt at 4.0 g/t Au for 2.31 Moz gold) over the La India Project, and (ii) scout drilling, which hopes to identify new resources hosted in additional veins sets on the 313 km2 Project and demonstrate a major Gold District." They've done about 2km of scout drilling in the end? That means they've only done 8km of infill drilling this year (IF they've used the full 10km stated), so another 12km+ to go?

MC blythly skims over that they will need about 20k metres more drilling to get the resource up from 2.1Moz to 3Moz, with no reference to the fact that this time last year the intention was to do it with 10k metres of drilling and to have completed it in 2017!

Shareminator - I agree that KEfI is interesting going forwards, but that 45% is a huge dent into potential profits and the result is the share price sitting where it is now. Mcap is low enough to make it interesting though.

Good one Wondergoals: you tried engaging, you failed to convince and now you say don't bother!

Shareminator - and just look at how that uncertainty has affected Kefi's share price - they are likely to only come away retaining 55% of the project.

Nah, Foreman I was thinking 10p would be a nice round number :)

Jibbo, "No, the results so far down to 200m have been excellent and will better the existing Soviet resource" The only new drill results in this RNS are the final 6. These are very far from "excellent": 0.4m at 17.4g/t 0.2m at 1.62g/t 3.8m at 1.25g/t 1m at 6.84g/t 0.6m at 1.17g/t and 1.9m at 0.16g/t 1.1m at 18.5g/t

Jibbo, come on - that was a poor set of results - basically 2 hits out of 6 and the intercept widths are tiny. Talk of needing to drill to 500m to get a gauge of the size of the resource means translates as "we didn't find what we were looking for at sub-200m". Drilling gets a lot more expensive, and time-consuming, if you have to go down to more than double the depth.

Should read: I won't reference HUM on here again, but the posts have had plenty to do with CNR.

Foreman, it's a public bulletin board, so I shall do as I please, within the LSE rules. I won't reference HUM on here, but the posts have had plenty to do with CNR. Please feel free to pick holes in my logic Foreman, if you can, as your response has failed to address any of the points I made!

Wondergoals, if we agree that the current resource is roughly similar (CNR's is slightly better but not a great deal), then the only difference (and we'll ignore Dugbe and Cora Gold for the moment, as the market is anyway) is about four years and �100 million in market cap. Now let's work a scenario through for CNR, discounting the unlikely takeout (I hear booing and hissing!): 4 years worth of working capital to get it through the permits, BFS and build ~�12 million. $120 million for the plant - let's go with 80% debt ($96 million), being generous, which leaves $24 million (�18.5 million) in equity raise. So, best case scenario to production is about �30 million of additional equity being issued. Add that to the recent share price of ~�30 million and you get �60 million of equity. So, for that, assuming you traverse a similar path to HUM you will approximately only double the value of your current investment 1 month out from first pour with an MCAP of �130 million. And you will have to wait FOUR YEARS for that! At that point CNR would have a debt of $96 million. HUM has only $60 million and is on a trajectory to have $15 million in the bank at first gold pour as they are coming in under budget. Now, do you seriously think HUM's potential has been realised? I don't, barely scratched the surface and most of the risk has been removed. Talk about a truly excellent risk/reward play. CNR on the other hand has all of the risks associated with getting permitted, financed and built (delays, additional costs, unforseen problems, yadiya). Of course, the above analysis didn't include the drilling that CNR are doing. If they can bring that into the resource and improve the NPV and economics then that will improve the payback. But then of course drilling, analysis and resource upgrades use up additional funds and they take a substantial amount of time. HUM have gone hammer and tong at the heart of it - target the open pit, get it built and THEN prove up the rest of the resource - potential already unlocked you say? How about $70 million annual profit which they can use to hammer out the infill drilling at Yanfo, and buy in other satellite projects like AGG for an absolute steal.

The two are absolutely comparable Wondergoals (the resources are strikingly similar) - it's just that HUM is 4 years further on than CNR, and has additional strings to its bow. Ref. the buy-out, hmmm. Isn't that what they tout on all explorer boards? Isn't that pretty much the dream everyone wants - make a fast buck with an early takeout? I remember Jibbo going on about a potential buy out 6 years ago, and we all believed him (and I think he believed it too). It may or may not happen, but to pin your hopes on it is a long shot.

Patryk, you're missing the point there - HUM has some serious catching up to do to get to anywhere near "fair" value. Who knows what the gold price environment will be in 4 years time, but if we are at the stuttering start of the next bull run CNR will be coming into production near the peak - so excellent returns for the first couple of years (which are the most important as that's when debt can be paid down).

Brigstocke - 5 years ago, all HUM had was the Dugbe Resource (Liberia), in the process of completing a PEA (finalised April 2013) and the gold price was sat at $1700/oz. Now they have further proved up the Dugbe Resource (Liberia) but far more importantly, they have purchased, proved up, permitted, financed and built the Yanfolila mine in the last 3 years - no mean feat. And gold is sat at $1270/oz. Now and then is just not a valid comparison. Anyway you have to compare historic mcaps with present, not share price, as there is dilution along the way, as there has been with CNR (there are twice as many CNR shares now as there were 5 years ago for example, and you can at least double, if not plenty more, if a component of the funding involves equity which it usually does, it again to get to production).

At the time of the recent presentation (26/10/17), CNR stated that it's current 2.2M oz resource (I'm ignoring El Salvador as we may all be dead before the moratorium is lifted) is under-valued by about 4x by comparison with its peer group on TSX. The then mcap was �31 million. That is effectively saying that MC believes that a fair current mcap for CNR should be �124 million. And that's a realistic 4 years off first gold pour (Enviro delays - 1 yr, BFS - 1 yr, Build - 2 yrs). Crazy stuff. Across the pond in Mali, HUM has a current mcap of �133 million and is 1 MONTH off first gold pour on a similar resource to CNR's ($162 NPV, IRR 60%, $70M profit/yr, $79 million CAPEX, 2.2M oz total resource with 710k oz in the open pit mine plan, AISC $695). And that doesn't take into account the Dugbe resource in Liberia of 4.2M oz (mid-DFS stage), where a conservative $50/oz would have the Canadians valuing it at $210M (1.5x the current mcap by itself).

Interesting. Can anyone shed light on what the following means in layman's terms: "The investment dealer who will be selling your company's securities into the marketplace will charge a negotiable sales commission ranging from 6%-10% of the value of the securities sold plus a warrant. This sales commission will be paid out of the offering proceeds."