Member Info for Strider4

Frankly I'll not have you casting aspersions on my decency.

Reported again.

And what you can't seem to comprehend Hbob, is that things change! Let me break it down nice and simple: let's say you're bullish on a company, it's doing well, the price is going up and then all of a sudden it issues a severe profit warning. Do you keep hold of your shares out of misplaced loyalty to the company and watch your hard earned money disappear down the chute. Or do you react, change your opinion and sell up. Wrt HUM as I have told you on several occasions before, I announced when I sold at 36p. Everyone was free to take that as they liked. They had plenty of opportunity to sell at the same level. So, stop trying to paint the picture that I conned people. So, you're similar in the respect that you are a WRES diehard, but you differ in that you will go down with this ship, if you have to. Well you won't get a medal for it, and you won't get any thanks from anyone. If people start losing serious money here, all you will get will be blame.

Yes, BMN was the perfect storm of Va prices ballooning as a result of China's steel policy at the same time as their securing an additional 20 odd % of their flagship.

IF tungsten rockets, then of course, WRES will go with it. That's a big if though.

Agree it should be easier now, as it's a re-opening. OF course, the reason why it is being re-opened is because it failed the first time! Not a huge recommendation. It's got economies of scale this time, so it should theoretically be profitable - needs proving though. SML and JLP are producers and they've had their share of problems, as well as people ramping them to the sky along the way.

Don't think you can compare it to BMN, as they got the working plant as part of the deal - a real coup. Additionally, Va has got the appeal of energy storage (the big next thing), whereas tungsten is more run of the mill.

Sanchez - you are partially correct. I do have an interest in following this company, as do many. It has done spectacularly well for those who bought in the single digits and for others who traded it astutely on the way up.

However, I am not particularly interested in getting cut by a falling knife. The price is not cheap until the chart says it is. Who knows how things are going behind the scenes - there is a net selling at the moment and I'm not participating until that changes. There is an assumption on here by many that the bull case from a fundamental point of view is unassailable. However, the ramp up in production has not gone to plan so far, and it remains to be seen if the external review is having an affect yet. The RNS will tell all.

Pdub, you said that you weren't interested in carrying on with this debate, and yet here you are again! You just have to have the last word!

Like I said, if you can apply consistency to your application of the adjective "paper" on both the upside and the downside, then you are a rare beast. Most can't.

"I do understand that you are a trader and have very short term vision and expectations". Dripping with condescension - most unlike you Pdub.

"I am very different". Translate, much more sophisticated, and all-round superior.

"So far BMN performance as a company has been outstanding, resulting in it becoming one of the best performing shares on AIM over the last two calendar years". Little comfort to those with averages in the 30s, to talk of past appreciation.

"Once this short term pull back in sp is over" It's short-term is it? The jury is still out on that. Price is deeply negative territory from a chart perspective.

"then I expect the remainder of 2019 / 2020 to be a very exciting time for BMN and it's genuine shareholders." There is no doubt that there will be exciting action one way or another. If it is indeed a good year share price-wise, it is not only the "genuine holders" who will profit. On the other hand, if profit disappoints, then there will be some great opportunities to average down.

Well said Troajan. Now is not generally a great time for small caps market-wide. I guess there's a feeling of why risk it when all these big caps have just gone up 30% in 4 months...Given that environment, people are less interested in jam tomorrow, and rightly so. This is ALL about profit here. MM has been given a LOT of rope over the years, and he's near the end of it. Time to produce the goods. That said, PIs love a good story and MM is the master. I predict that give it a couple of months and said wool will be firmly over the eyes of the believers again.

of the lime light, to give time for the stink to blow over. Seen it time and again. Ramp up the PR, pump the price and then bam, hit them with the money raising.

Give it a month and it'll all be forgotten on here. MM will come out of hiding and say things are going dandy with the commisioning and all will be forgiven, until a month later, when it's an "unexpected" delay...going through a small section of low-quality ore, teething problems with the plant, the best in the world AISC turned out to be a tad on the "optimistic" side (no MM, not you?). And quite likely, just a little top-up placing to tide things along, to supplement this emergency raise using the warrants.

Ok Pdub, let's stick to the facts. Historically, you have averaged down in this one share (BMN) and it has worked out well for you to date. Does that guarantee that the strategy will work in the future? Absolutely not. It may or it may not. Nevermind the countless times in other shares where people have averaged down only to compound their eventual loss. And there are many posters on here, I've no doubt, who are not in so fortunate a position as to have bought the bulk of their holding in the low single digits. I imagine many are actually sat on a loss at the moment...a "paper" loss albeit.

The distinction I was making was a subtle one, perhaps; I'll spell it out more clearly now. People are all too happy to write off their losses as only "paper" as it is painful. However, the same people, whether they admit it to themselves or not, will not be consistent in the way they see their "paper" gain. There will be no writing that off as paper, indeed there is rejoicing and celebrating, as if it's in the bank already. All entirely human, it's hard-wired into our psychology, and it's dangerous for the health of our investment portfolios.

Pdub, glad to entertain.

No "help" required here. IF you apply the very same logic to your "paper profits" - i.e. you don't think you have a profit until it's in the bank, then that's actually fair enough, as it is consistent. However, you are a rare bird indeed if that is the case. As for "averaging down", it is well known that that strategy has led to the ruin of many a PI. Everyone who has ever averaged down has believed that they are onto a winner - otherwise why would they do it.

I have never claimed to know the future price. I only state what the price action indicates. I do believe I called it correctly this very last time (price back up to 28p to test - bearish if it failed), and on several previous occasions too.

I am not a proud owner of BMN shares. I was briefly last week. The bounce didn't have legs, so I sold.

companies

Hbob, "need to provide a totally candid and diligent briefing of what’s happening on the ground. Including costings.. in writing to the market.. confidence is very low and we as shareholders have to constantly grope around tatty press statements to try and figure what’s happening.."

There's a reason why many company's don't do that...they don't want investors to know the exact state of matters. HUM is a classic case - the mine was commissioned "on time and budget"...except that they fiddled the trade payables...at least the "on time" bit was true. Then, the hiccups began in earnest in the first year of production. The chart told the story long before the truth came out in an RNS. Follow the chart for WRES and you'll know the truth of it.

GIT, profit in the next 3 months? You've got to be having a laugh right? The best that you can hope for is that the thing is fully commissioned in that time frame. The end of 2019 is when WRES MIGHT hit profitability, might, barring hiccups...nah hiccups - MM doesn't do hiccups.

Pdub, two details:

1) "I would say the share price has stabilised "

Wishful thinking I'm afraid. The price has anything but stabilised after yesterday's drop back to close at 25.5p. It's odds on that 25p is going to face another stern test next week, just as price tested 28p a second time and failed.

2) "Paper loss is NOT a real loss. Only selling creates a real loss. Surely every intelligent investor knows that."

Wow, a paper loss is not real! It's only play money after all isn't it...and the bit about intelligent investors beggars belief frankly.

Other than that, a well reasoned post.

It's clear that the issuance of the new warrants (and twice as many of them!) is what is p ing people off the most about today's RNS, and rightly so. He's just dished out a load of free money at what LTHs would consider a ludicrously low price. Those warrants are going to hang there and threaten any significant move over 0.6p now, putting a cap on it.

I note that in the email from the company the woman conveniently omitted to make any mention of the issuance of the new warrants!

Why the rush to cash the warrants in now? It is because WRES needed the money now of course. Regular as clockwork. The latest raise should last until September, IF all goes to plan at La P.

Talk of gold results from Portugal shifting the price is just wishful thinking. Forget the gold - it's just a hobby for MM, gives him nice trips to Portugal for a change of scene, and allows him to try and drum up some additional excitement in the run up to a placing.

Suggestions that the raise was to accelerate the programme at Regua and Sao Martino is again wishful thinking. The money is being used at La P - at least one would hope that it is - La P is WRES.

Troajan - 11th Feb 2019 interview: "by the end of 2019 we will be generating about $35-40m revenue. Off the back of that revenue, in 2020, we will be generating $20m of profit (EBITDA)". That suggests to me that he was targetting the end of 2019 for full ramp up. You can knock that back by 3 months now and counting. Assuming profitability is reached at some point before full ramp up, it would be generous to assume WRES can be profitable by the end of 2019, on the new timescale. That's with no hiccups (possible, but there are so many variables) and no further delays (how likely is that?). What is going to fund the plant for the next 7 months while it is not profitable?

MM's timeline was Q4 2019 profitability wasn't it?

Add 3 months to that for the existing delay, and then add another 3 for MM's spin and you get to mid 2020!

K3, you talk a good line, and I do believe that you believe in what you are saying too.

But, when I remember you saying there was 0% chance of a placing ever again (Sept 2018) and that investors were looking at 5-10 times their money by the end of March 2019 (been and gone), then it does make you wonder.

"Strider4, yes. Busy today. I have gardening to do."

Hbob there with you, ipad to hand so that he doesn't miss a second of what goes on here?

You busy today? Not a single post yet which is a trifle unusual...

True, not this time. Maybe the BB is finally wising up a bit. Took some serious aggression on their part to get it there though - nice bunch of people all in all.