Member Info for Strider4

You asked who might pull out before the vinegar stroke?

Perhaps those who think a placing is coming very soon, and perhaps those who think the PEA is being delayed until SOLG gets its way with CGP (months).

Umm - for a start, it's been trading BELOW 38p for several weeks. And apart from the P&D a month ago, it's been trading below 38p for pretty much all of 2019. In conclusion, where have you cooked that up from?!

As MAGP was raised earlier...it went down the tubes...LTHs got zip didn't they? I'm sure they all thought they'd tough it out and that the jam would arrive eventually.

Grim, working it through:

SOLG's current mcap is ~£700m, about the same as at the time of the initial offer. CGP already have ~10% of SOLG in shares, so that translates to £70m ($91m). CGP's mcap at a $0.34 share price (~the same as at the time of initial announcement) is $215m. Add on 20% and you get an offer from SOLG of about $255m. Knock off the $91m that CGP already own of SOLG and SOLG are offering ~$160m for CGP's 15% stake in ENSA (ignoring CGP's other assets - call it quits with the debt that SOLG will write off). The question is, is $160m for the 15% a good deal for CGP holders? It's basically $10m/%.

Well what is SOLG's 85% stake currently valued at? Current mcap $910m. Knock off say $50m for the regionals as yet unproven, gives $860m. Hey presto, that's also $10m/%

So, they are essentially not being offered any additional monetary incentive...To say that they are getting a 20% gain is misleading. Your motives are also clear.

And will add further if it dips more.

After the recent stellar news set, this appears to be a good opportunity to buy a quality gold small cap following a dip on gold weakness. Gold looks to be rallying now...see if it lasts.

I've no doubt that the buyers will be queuing up if this approaches the mid to low 70s. There are extremely strong levels of support there. Price broke out of an established downtrend a couple of weeks ago.

Mog - the maths of the current offer see CGP getting a smaller share of Alpala overall, so it is not in their interests to accept the deal, from that perspective.

To offset this, what NM is trying to offer is a greater share of the regionals, one set of "top" management (and ditch the other lot) and a simplified control structure (perhaps the implication being that a takeover might more easily be facilitated?...plus reduced overheads resulting from the simplified structure - minimal benefit).

It doesn't appear to be a great deal on the surface and I'm not surprised many CGP-ites, if not the majority, are not biting. CGP holders are equally, if not more, likely to get taken out as CGP, as opposed to SOLG.

despite Q1 production down by 6% (80% of which is accounted for by planned movement of two coal highwallers).

Qalibashi, releasing the PEA prior to the CGP offer would fly in the face of the tactic that many believe NM is employing - delay the PEA to grind down CGP holders.

How would that help NM's cause if he released the PEA prior to the offer, or indeed during the offer period for that matter? If the PEA is as good as it's expected to be (despite a few mine plan and metallurgy "complications"), then that would surely demonstrate just how good Alpala really is - nailed down on paper. Why then would CGP holders then say - great, now that we know for sure this is hugely economic, we'll sell our shares on the cheap to NM...

Wouldn't be surprised if those looking to trade this on a spike have their wish fullfilled in the next couple of months or so. The power of confirmation bias and fast money should see to that.

But those hoping for solid price appreciation are almost certainly going to have to wait out the initial production period until profitability is reached, if it is. Nothing ever goes completely smoothly with so many working parts, so those that think WRES is going to be profitable before the year end are dreaming. The next placing, for general admin purposes, will come in around September 2019, and if LP needs extra cash, a lot sooner than that.

I'm almost convinced by K3's certainty that this is all going to come good. 2p just get's the imagination going.

But then I remember what K3 said last year...It was going to be 1.75p minimum by March 2019...ahem. And there was a 0% chance, yest that's a 0% chance, of a placing going forwards from Septemeber 2018! In fact, apparently there was a much higher chance of a dividend (not hard since the placing was rated at 0%)...

8 months down the line, 2 placings on and counting, dividend nowhere in sight and the price at 0.45p and the snake oil is still being peddled.

That's the spirit, Captain.

To be clear, there is not a chance that the PEA is going to morph into the PFS, unless it is delayed until the year end. The PFS requires additional detailed studies that take time, such as geotechnical drilling.

If NM is going straight to BFS, then the plan has recently changed, as the PFS was promised at the end of 2019. Still, all timelines and plans seem pretty "fluid" at the moment.

If it's all part of some grand plan to wear CGP down into submission then the delays are going to be substantial.

The latest talk about the warrants as an effective placing is right - that's basically what it is.

But worse, it is clearly an EMERGENCY placing, as otherwise, why the rush to cash in the warrants months early, and why did warrant holders need such a huge enticement (double the number at a cushy price of 0.6p)?

It'll all blow over in a few weeks and then it'll be rinse and repeat.

to see what was going on, saw a comment from MrCalm (one of the serial rampers that inhabit these boards), and knew immediately this is a dangerous one to get involved with, quite apart from the fundamentals, which are shaky to say the least.

Do you understand the meaning of the word hypocrite?

I fully acknowledge that I can be argumentative. I am therefore no hypocrite. A hypocrite is someone who berates somebody else for being argumentative and yet they themselves are argumentative (you are a case in point as is Pdub). And then in a similar vein there is lack of self-awareness which is highly prevalent. An example is Pdub stating he is a positive person, whilst using the tools of condescension, sarcasm and insults on a very regular basis. Not sure how that stacks up.

This is in response to your comment last night. I will not continue these off-topic conversations any longer. I'm sticking to BMN, and perhaps you can too?

Knuttie, that is good to know, and as it should be. Pdub himself "admitted" that he had copied the posts at the time...for storage in his private records as part of a stalking campaign.

Sands - ok whatever. I am please for you if you are not sat on a big loss. All the best with this.

Sherlock Endion has uncovered a great secret, that I stated on here for all to see yesterday as well.

Are you still so certain now that you've heard it from the horse's mouth?

Answering your questions:
1) I have been on several occasions in the recent past. I am not currently.
2) I don't need to justify my presence on a public bulletin board. However, I don't mind saying that, as I have stated previously. I am interested in BMN as are many. I may or may not invest in the future depending on the chart and the fundamentals.

Is that ok with you, pretty please? Is that ok with the BB POLICE?

Pdub, dripping with condescension as ever. "Your worst fears" - utterly false. You were of that opine already and went stalking for material. I on the other hand have more integrity than that and besides, all the material on you is in plain sight on this board. My worst "fears" are confirmed - you actually copied that post, before it was removed, for use later on as ammunition - truly, that is too sad for words. I would go so far as saying pathetic.

And getting back on topic, and away from this personal attack on me...

My comments have always been entirely consistent. I have stated on many occasions that I think this company will do well in the long term (Va, energy storage etc). The short-term (6 months give or take) and perhaps even medium term, however, I am bearish based on the chart, caused by heavy selling and the fundamentals (Va price and current productivity).