Member Info for Straycat

Re-invested in a significant way yesterday, based on the most recent RNS.
So this is one for the believers.
Calculating forecast cash flows for 2022 and with oil prices above $75 and even at current flow rates, the consequent options for shareholder returns/capex investments are exciting.
I reckon the next phase should concentrate shareholder value by using buybacks as the next shareholder 'press'.
But for cancellation imo.
It can be done in conjunction with managing the R factor by capex . It's a balancing act. And easily affordable up to $200m which btw is more than the maximum required capex to meet 75k bopd target in the year. Total capex to 75k bopd is $450m over three years...
Let's make the Market pay to be a member by shrinking (pressing) the Register.
If so, then the announcement of full year results in March will provide the optimum platform to buyback @ $50m. A 10% reduction in the Share Register at current values. The authority is already granted.
And those Y/E results are going to be spectacular.
Buybacks beginning at or around the AGM in late May if not sooner depending on the ongoing FPD negotiations...
The cash flow projections suggest yet more potential shareholder returns during the year as well, irrespective of capex commitments.
The backdrop to all of this are the ongoing FDP negotiations and their outcome.
But any way you assess it, we're looking in good shape through 2022.

Apologies for previous miscommunication.

All imo/dyor.

Hi Indrid,
Really good to know that you're still around!
Just got back and read what was posted on my behalf while I was away. Stupid. Ignore it.
It's not me and it certainly won't be happening again. Delegation is definitely not the way forward!
On a more positive note, the post was actually intended to reference the possible timings for buybacks (ironic, given our previous exchanges on this!) and I'LL re-post tomorrow.
SC

I reckon the dividend date will be announced along with the year end results in March.
So I guess it will be activated in May, just before/after the AGM.
Unless the FDP negotiations go wrong; then it'll be whenever that happens, but certainly before the AGM!!

Today's price looks tempting as a future platform.
Not for tomorrow necessarily, but for the next few months...
I'm currently considering my position.
On the larger issue, my irritation with you is borne out of frustration that you can't relate to the other bb members without using your disparaging, dismissive tones.
Do you not see how you are alienating swathes of bb members by using your condescending language?
Why is it necessary?

Hi C0ckeye,
Good to know you're still alive and kicking! HNY.
I'm anxious not to be part of any developing conspiracy theory regarding PUTUP.
And I'm also anxious to avoid dismissing all PUTUP's content as irrelevant. It isn't. Some of it is interesting.
But it is always viewed from the same prism of arrogance, disdain and insults for any dissenting view. Like he's on a mission. And that's not right.
He is financially articulate, but to what end?
Many of his posts hang around interpretations of p26 of a 2020 powerpoint presentation entitled 'Shaikan Production Sharing Contract- Summary of terms'.
And yet he steadfastly ignores p12 and p15 of that same presentation which describe the Field Development possibilities and their potentially transformational impact on GKP over the coming years. Particularly when they are self funded.
Many shareholders are still very interested in those possible outcomes which make the R factor an irrelevance.
And yet still yield significant ongoing cash flow benefits for investors culminating in further shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks if the oil price continues to develop as it has over the past year.
What an exclusive Club we might become.
And it makes you wonder why he ignores these possibilities. Not his brief? Beyond his scope?
He claims to have been part of a much larger concern. And he may well have been. But so was I.
And that's why I'm confident he has never spearheaded a serious business simply because he could never sustain the trust of his team imo. Not using his bullying rhetoric; never. He could only ever frighten his subordinates.
I've run a serious business and there were several of his kind at my disposal; well paid Grunts who did the opinionated financial leg work, the excel spread sheet propositions to enable the Grown-Ups to take the significant strategic decisions.
Board members with belief, commitment and vision; people moving as one.
Because some people can't be trusted in the field of commercial battle; you never know when they're going to stab you in the back.

Apart from insulting anyone who doesn't subscribe to your point of view, what do you intend to achieve by your ridiculous posturing PUTUP?
You're running out of road pal; it's just that you can't see it.
I'm coming round to the point of view that you have been 'planted' in our community...

Not that I'm not happy that you're not not happy that that the stock is still cheap...I think!?!
It's too early in the year for this.
But anyway, I too think there's some real mileage in the stock yet.
And it's all started well for investors in GKP world.
It seems to me a reasonable assumption that the FDP negotiations are going/have gone well.

What's the worry?
The accounts are going to show record revenues, record profits and investors are not stupid enough to work off the audited accounts alone when forecasting future cash flows; they see what we see right now and it's looking pretty good...

Merry Xmas.

So I invested in a pure bred English Springer Spaniel (pet name Rosie) which I picked up at eight weeks old in May 2020.
Her Mum and Dad’s pedigree is impeccable; between them they’ve won 28 FT CH.
And she’s a miracle of science. Truly capable of so much, with so much more to give.
Unfortunately she’s not able to express herself properly because of the confines of her domain.
While I live out in the country, I cannot/will not give her the power to control her own destiny. Do what’s she’s so easily capable of.
That control sits with me, as her owner. And she deals with me on those terms.
She’s happy and wants to please; I like it that way.
Ring any bells?
Merry Xmas to all true bb contributors and readers.
Here’s to a Very Happy New Year and more ‘power to the people’ by way of capital returns to shareholders.

SC.

“@Bucephalus1, there is a potential downside to not believing people who repeatedly make negative things up. In the fable of “The boy who cried wolf.”, the villagers lost their sheep.”
Hmm…
Let’s take your double negative proposition and develop it to its logical conclusion shall we?
Let’s turn it on its head.
IF YOU ARE RIGHT (?) and we reverse your double negative then this is the outcome;
“@Bucephalus1, there is a potential UPSIDE to believing people who repeatedly make POSITIVE things up. In the fable of “The boy who cried wolf.”, the villagers KEPT their sheep.”
And that’s what BangGone and his avatars have been advocating for years. By repeatedly pushing the same mantra…BUY NOW TO AVOID DISAPPOINTMENT!
We all know what we think about that. He's BangGone.
You definitely don’t want to be at the other end of BangGone's spectrum do you?...SELL NOW TO AVOID DISAPPOINTMENT!
Dismissing the Company’s prospects with waves of negativity without balance? That’s the inevitable conclusion to your 'Cry wolf' reference…
Really? You didn’t mean that did you?
B1 is right; judgments made on the available facts and consequential interpretive balance are the way forward...and you know that.
The key word is balance.

UNB1,
Well that's the beauty of GKP, it has a history of flattering to deceive.
But I don't see any more dividends this year either.
Nor buybacks (even though the authority exists) UNLESS we reach yet another impasse in the FDP negotiations.
Then there are many different possible outcomes, but we're in a much better place right now than at any time since restructure.

Last year's OpUp was 15/12/2020...
We should expect a significant announcement shortly.

Ha!
Well then we're all f*cked!!!!
Me more than most...thankfully I can cover my embarrassment, but it would definitely pinch my pride.
Not like some of the LTHs who have lived through many years of trauma...

In essence this is a simple arrangement.
We spend more and we get more out. Basic principle underpinning the whole PSC.
We spend nothing more and we get more out. Basic principle of the new reality in GKP negotiation planning.
Stop overthinking it and deal with the reality on the ground right now.
The key to all of this lies in our ability to get paid on reliable terms.
Whether we're talking about the next $400m investment (after this year's $85m KRG incentive). Or the other options now available to us to enhance shareholder value including but not exclusive to share buybacks and/or dividends.
Either way we have to secure future cash flows to proceed in an orderly fashion.
Otherwise the deal's not worth the paper it's written on.
In which case it's time to evacuate the cash and any other assets we can salvage.
That's what's at stake here imo.

Regular payments are now the key to future investment.

JH clearly knows where we are with 55k bopd;; he's already indicated the direction of travel in his half year report by way of his commitment to capital investments in the second half of 2021 @ ca.$50m.
He now needs cast iron assurances about regular receipts to enable the self funded growth so clearly evidenced by any sensible modelling.
He's in the middle of a sensitive negotiation at the moment.
In card playing terms it's not a difficult proposition; twist or stick.
To twist he needs absolute confidence in future cash flows.
To stick he needs to do nothing. Just return capital to his long suffering shareholders.
And/or sell.
That's the beauty of his negotiating position.
I just wish JF could have seen it for what it was. In fairness, GKP never reached 55k on his watch, so he never had that luxury.

So bb contributors...twist or stick?

BTW, if the oil's there and the cash is there then so is the massive payout imo.
And the contractual terms encourage it by way of continued rewards for re-investment.

For me the buyback for cancellation method coupled with some dividend payouts can only ratchet up the pressure both on the KRG and the Markets
.
But I think JH has already worked that out.
$100m back to shareholders in his first twelve months is bound to concentrate minds around around the negotiating table!!!

OF,
You might be wrong about the listing rules, but you're dead right about the decision being in N's hands alone.
My argument is that he would be stupid to delist ENW now or any time soon.
From his point of view it would be costly, disruptive, destabilising and wholly unnecessary.
And I think Krok's right, now the nerves have settled, we'll probably see further sp movements north pre Xmas.
Steady as she goes...

Pretty sure there'll be no public announcement to confirm he's not doing what he doesn't want to do in the first place...

On the matter of the interelationships between his businesses, he makes full profit on his sales to his external customers (inc. Metinvest/DTEK), so why share it by absorbing those sales into a company he only owns 24% of?

IMO this guy's playing the long game.
And he's doing it sat inside a much bigger entity with much greater reach than ENW could ever dream of. That's why I reckon it's wrong to compare JKX and ENW, unless it's on a really superficial level.

IMO/DYOR.

I've been wearing a nappy on my head for years...It's cos I've got sh*t for brains!

Hey OF,
You are clearly NOT entry level!
System Capital Management is 100% beneficially owned by Rinat Akhmeton.
System Capital Management started Metinvest in 2006.
Smart Holdings did a share swap to buy 24% of Metinvest in 2007.
System Capital Management now owns 71% of Metinvest as a consequence.
Akhmeton and Novinskiy are shareholders in the same business; a business which uses inordinant amounts of gas to make its steel fabrications.
SCM Group has a turnover of ca.$30bn with a net worth of ca. $31bn. It is the largest company in its sector in the Ukraine. And at current performance levels, Metinvest represents at least 50% of its total revenue.
N.B. 2020 Metinvest full year turnover was $10.4bn. But by 2021 half year it had already produced revenues of $8.4bn in six months. And Novinskiy owns 24% of it.
SCM also owns DTEK Group, a business which provides:-
‘heat and power to ultimate consumers’.
DTEK employs 73000 people and is a significant gas provider in the Ukraine.
No chance of Novinskiy giving up his Listed Company status when his future looks so bright in Metinvest.
Remember, he bought his majority shareholding in Regal in 2011 for 38p a share.
He must know how much more it’s worth now and in the future.
The fact that the markets don’t yet ‘get it’ is a matter of no consequence to him imo.
As for the FCA and JKX, the FCA have massive latitude and discretion there.
JKX are using that as a distraction imo.

Like I say, DYOR/All IMO.

OF, you're welcome...

Hi OF,
Apologies for not responding sooner; just stuff gets in the way doesn’t it?

So here’s the thing.
It depends why you use this bb.
I use it to assist my understanding of my investment.
But I’m more into informed discussion, rather than irrational, uninformed bias fuelled by ignorance.
And I’m not here to teach.
I know you do your research, so join up the dots and then I’d love to discuss the relationship between ENW, SCM and Metinvest further. (DTEK Group too, if you like!)
But I don’t want entry level chat on a complicated series of relationships which ultimately rely upon two men.
Novinskiy and Akhmeton.
I’ll be hanging around awhile. As I mentioned, I’m not going anywhere right now.

It all ends up being a matter of opinion (informed) and judgment anyway, so let's not get too carried away...

Please DYOR. All IMO.