Member Info for Straycat

Hey Nobull,
With all due respect(?) that is a really stupid argument.
Unless YOU really believe that this share is due for a 'de-rate'.
Not a chance right now...
On current forecasts GKP might make as much as $200m this year.
Ergo, shrinking the capital base only makes it a more exclusive club to join.

The only way buyback works in this Company is if you buyback to cancel, while at the same time protecting/catering for existing employee commitments.
Otherwise you end up with the debacle of Jaap Huijske's last attempt to hoodwink his shareholders with his Chairman's letter of 24th May 2019 imo.
20m shares were apparently needed to satisfy employee option schemes and in the end 19m were cancelled after an AGM where the major shareholders refused to ratify his and his accomplice's (JF's) reappointment to the Board for a further twelve months. They each got less than the 80% threshold.
That cancellation wiped $49m off the Balance Sheet which would have been fine IF IT WAS INTENDED! Just like a dividend comes off the Balance Sheet.
But it wasn't; no sensible senior manager would have employed that approach to buyback.
I mean really, wringing it out over twelve months, hoping they could keep their war chest for whatever Machiavellian purpose they had in mind. Ridiculous.
So shareholder trust is lost in 'buyback to Treasury' unless it's truly needed.
And that's all down to the bungled/manipulated original buyback arrangements put in place by Jaap Huijskes where Jon Ferrier paid the ultimate price. Otherwise it was Huijske's neck on the line.
Let's not worry too much about Jon though; he'll be happy with the results of his five year stint...
However, that doesn't make buyback a no no, it just needs to be effected in shareholders' best interests, not those of the Board.
Buybacks can genuinely concentrate potential shareholder attention because as the common shares shrink and the dividends increase, potential investors have to decide...
I'm just hoping JH is sensitive to this.

Straight to the FDP. That's where JH goes.
The options in front of him;
1) He's successful and negotiates the next three year self funding investments @$450m to 75k bopd; or
2) He completely fails in his efforts and we reap a whirlwind reward in shareholder returns; or more likely
3) There's some hybrid arrangement which enables him to do both - return capital to shareholders and re-invest in the Field.

However, in any case GKP is in transition and we need to properly understand what that means.
It’s time to look at where the capital returns to shareholders are going to come from in anything but the short term i.e. post 2022.
This year’s a given under any sort of sensible interpretation of oil price predictions and GKP capex possibilities.
We’ll develop ca $200m in capital returns to shareholders (or more) imo, as well as injecting another significant series of capital investments in Field Development (depending on KRG approvals and without them in any case).
We can afford to do that because we’re going through a period of ‘catch up’, bringing back previous capital investments into our cash flow as part of the PSC.
However, that’s not sustainable much past 2022, and certainly not beyond 2023 without a clear, inclusive path forward with the KRG. We need an insight into what the KRG will allow re the FDP and the consequent investment requirements.
Unless and until that happens what we’re left with is a business which is currently capped by reference to 55k bopd; oil prices; and a depleting Cost Recovery Pool.
Oh yes, and we’re making sh*t loads of money. In 2022 it’s possible to see profits @ca. $200m.
Hence the bullish outlook for capital returns this year.
But that’s the point. We now need to look to how to maximise the profit we make from the oil we produce in the future.
And not bury ourselves in the investment legacy of the past.
That’s why FDP approval this year is so pivotal imo.
Big year for GKP...

And that's right, isn't it? Looking as far as Q1 2023 isn't enough. Hardly visionary.
We have a seven year strategic FDP embraced within a 25/30 year contract without the unqualified support of the owners of the Field, who clearly have their own agenda.
So looking further than the next twelve to eighteen months is impossible without FDP approvals to at least 75k bopd and possibly beyond.
As a consequence we're left to protecting our short term position unless/until we negotiate the impasse which has bedeviled the last few years.
My point is that this year is our best opportunity to take back control of our destiny, with or without KRG support.
And we should make the most of it.

Hey PUTUP,
Wow! We're about to engage in a serious debate about GKP strategy. Who knew?
So to take your points sequentially:-
1) Semantics. Cash release in terms of capex = asset movement from cash @ bank (current assets) into Buildings Plant and Machinery (fixed assets). Apart from interest and depreciation, the Balance Sheet impact is zero;
2) Wherever the FCF comes from, it is a legitimate Balance Sheet item and needs to be dealt with in general management terms this year, 2022, howsoever JH wishes. Leave your bleeding heart for LTHs behind; it doesn't suit you;
3) I started the thread, and it is intentionally labelled 2022. Specific to this year;
4) In negotiating terms, the fact that we could press on with investment without increased production approvals can only enhance our position at the table. In fact I would advocate it because it makes the KRG position more and more ridiculous;
5) Your advice on how I remodel is welcome...patronising person!!! Made me smile though;

On the other hand, it's good to engage on the possibilities presented in 2022.
In any event we can both agree that this year is key in the evolution of GKP.
And I've got a feeling JH wants to progress with the FDP; he's just making sure he can adjust his strategic position if he doesn't get the repositioning he needs.

I'm certainly not bailing when there's so much positive action on the horizon, one way or another.

Hi TM,
On the matter of your mis-post, only playing, no problem.
In answer to your bigger question, I'm now reading it compromised by the end of Q1 2023.
My point is that JH needs to capitalise on his current negotiating strength as we sweep through the next twelve months...

Not my post TM...get a grip!

Given $85 and 50k bopd any analysis provides for an easy $400m-$450m cash release from this ABSOLUTE CASH COW;
As long as the capex rebalance is engineered and as long as they don't freeze payments again...
$200m capex;
$150m dividend;
$50m buyback.
We don't need KRG approvals to re-invest ahead of their deliberations (i.e. how to improve their financial position).
We can do it anyway under current terms. And given the rewards at the current and forecast oil price they need to understand that's just what JH will do imo.
We have the whip hand right now.
Lovin' it.

I'm going to stop doing this, but just got offered £2.38 to sell 100k.
Next week is looking very interesting indeed.
And no, I didn't!!
Have a good weekend.

Don't normally do this, but just got quoted £2.37 on selling 10k shares...I reckon UNB1 needs to recalibrate his timelines...

I didn't see this so early though. Did anyone?
Btw, I'm with UNB1 on the wetting myself front!!!!

Thanks for that chartist insight UNB1.
Btw, Indrid is DEFINITELY a GKP believer...

UNB1,
Given the ex-div date and its impact on the sp (@ a neutral 17p say), what's your chartist view of the next couple of months for GKP? And why? Oil prices will clearly be influential.
It's good to have a different perspective here...

Hey Jens,
Lost my Molly Springer to old age in early 2020...never thought it would be so painful when she died in my arms.
Promised myself I wouldn't do it again, yet four months later I bought another Springer puppy and can only tell you what a difference she's made to my life!!!
She's eighteen months old now and a completely overbred hyper-intellegent nightmare!!!
Chin up pal.

By redistribution I am including capex as well as shareholder returns...

It also means that there's going to be a lot of cash for redistribution (in whatever form that takes) over the next twelve months...a lot.
Depending on the oil price, maybe as much as $400m.

Fair enough FH. Get it.
Can totally understand that previous experience is a problem for future expectations.
My beliefs rely on JH understanding that as well. And treating any future buybacks accordingly.
Hence the need for cancellation following purchase, apart from any residual option share liabilities.
Huijskes is a part of the problem, not a part of the solution imo.

Hi FH1,
'Please no share buybacks.'
We were all damaged by the last share buyback debacle, given that it was completely bungled/wholly misrepresented in terms of its real intention by Jaap Huijskes imo.
Is that why you're so against them now? Or is it a matter of principle?
I know it's a contentious and divisive issue here and you know where I'm at on the matter...but genuinely interested in an alternative view.
Btw, very fond of dividends too!! Just don't get why it's got to be a binary either/or issue. Why they can't be complimentary strategies?...

But in any case we're on the right side of the equation as far as we can tell, which was my point.

No. It's a big question with too many variables.
I can see £3.00 @ 55k bopd.
But I'm happy with my new exposure at current values.
What's your view?