Member Info for Straycat

Ops,
Unless I've missed some of your more recent deliberations, you have always been against buybacks, particularly following the 2019 debacle!
You've always advocated your preference for dividend distributions.
What has caused you to adjust your view so as to accommodate buybacks as an alternative distribution method?
Is it your stipulation that they are purchased for cancellation rather than to Treasury?
My own views on this are a matter of record.

The results will be outstanding, startling to the uninitiated, and suggesting so much more in 2022.
That's already priced in.
The big issue is what JH chooses to do with the incoming cash.
I'm sure we're all waiting for his judgment on the way forward. Hanging on his every word in fact.
Where his assessment of the current trading conditions takes him. And his chosen route forward as a consequence.
It is his time. And he will be judged accordingly.
Big year for GKP. And for JH.

To perpetuate your analogy, I reckon it should more properly read 'full disclothsure'!
I used to drive a flat back to Washington (Northumberland) every week, across the Pennines, delivering copper sheeting to a boiler maker's factory in the middle of a run down residential/commercial estate.
Never got a whiff of Swinger's parties anywhere...and believe me, I was desperately on the look-out while I was avoiding the house bricks being thrown at my truck as the locals tried to rob me of my cargo (true story)!!
So I'm guessing it's a different Washington then. Everything's slightly different over there. So did you go? And if so, what happened?
Bored Straycat.
Nothing happening here...waiting on full year results for action. SP will continue to drift, bobbing up and down with the oil price unless there's some substantive news (good or bad) in the interim. However, I expect (am sure) the 2021 P&L will be outstanding. Unfortunately that's already largely priced in, imo.
But, as a consequence I reckon there will be significant announcements concerning shareholder returns on 31/3/2022. And hopefully an FDP negotiation update.

'The stock hit all-time post-restructuring highs today'.
Your words, not mine. Without referencing your meaning.
I just picked up your language and ran with it...
Real point is, where do we think the sp is going without direction from the Board?

As I write, the sp is @ £2.12, 3% down on the day while Brent Crude is trading 3% up.
Adding back all the dividends at ca.66p, that takes the sp back to 2.78, well below its peak of 2.97 in August 2018.
Since Restructure I've always felt like GKP was/is, generally speaking, a trading share for PIs and I see no reason to change that view right now. Even though I don't trade it myself.
Particularly on the back of $150m in dividends in the last nine months. The traders will just keep on coming; why wouldn't they?
So on what basis do you see there being 'further room to run' without the support mechanisms of dividends, buybacks and a surging oil price in place and in the absence of any FDP approvals this year?
I reckon it'll need another big dividend boost to inject life into the sp. And a $50m share buyback primarily for cancellation.
$150m in dividends? Incidentally I note you haven't mentioned buybacks in your build back of the sp to its August 2018 highs!!.
At the moment I can't see past 3.00 this year, and that includes $150m in dividends, a buyback and a following wind with no 'bad news'.

However one thing's for sure, this will never be 'a boring old oil Company' imo.

Hmm...Numpty.
Quite right share-ninja.
Nevertheless it doesn't distract from the broader point that if the shares are being cancelled, even by 5% (rather than my stupid 8%) then that seems like a sensible way to spend surplus cash in his climate as long as the dividend is catered for.

Hi Ops,
There's definitely something(s) holding back the sp. And maybe you're right, maybe now is the time to buy.
Trouble is, Brent Crude's up 33+% in the last four weeks, yet GKP is down 5%.
Obviously there are different reasons for each performance, but I come back to my basic point that potential investors are sitting on the sidelines waiting for commercial and political outcomes in the Region and, as a consequence, within the FDP negotiations.
It does seem like we've been here before, but never with so much at stake.

Apart from treasury employee needs, is the buyback policy for cancellation?
With 19.5bn common shares in circulation (excluding Treasury shares and Preference shares) and a plan to buyback 1.5bn, that would reduce the shares in circulation by 8%. An impressive first step towards 'squeezing' the Market. The only question for me is whether they're for cancellation or not. Assuming they are, then that looks like a smart move in the current climate, as long as they can continue to develop their dividend policy at the same time.
But I am new to this share, so happy to discuss/learn.

'Putup (sic) gkp (sic) WILL generate billions this year alone. That's basic maths (sic). Your implications are it takes a pittance of that.
That sounds like boulderdash (sic) to me. Or prepping us poor pi. (sic) With (sic) a bare faced excuse for thievery (sic)'
For God's sake, where did you learn your English? From some Siberian Husky that you were cuddling up to in the dead of night?
Worse still, in those few words you've demonstrated to all bb members your total ignorance of:-
1) How the PSC works; and more importantly
2) How any P&L that reports on the LSE works.
We're not quoted on the Russian Stock Exchange; maybe that's where you made your mistake when you invested.

Hmm...never thought I'd come to PUTUP's defence, not that he needs it!!!

And because that's exactly right, the BoD need to decide what they're going to do with the possible tsunami of cash sweeping over the business this year (assuming it keeps on coming).
At least four strategies must have been developed by now.
One with KRG FDP support; one without; one with continued payments; one without.
Or an amalgam of the above.
Any way you look at it, such a BIG year for GKP and its shareholders...

147king,
No, what I've got is an absolute aversion to bullying and propaganda.
So, again, have you and your mate any interest in discussing GKP and its current trajectory or not?
Cos that's what this bb is for.

With apologies to the rest of the bb...

OMG!
Is it true? You remember me from Marseilles?
Such a testosterone driven night for you. So excited at being let out.
I love the way you asserted your authority in such a 'Butch', alcoholic, drug driven way.
My basic femininity had haunted me all of my adult life until we met in that crowded harbour cafe/bar.
Yet a few spiked White Russians later I felt I'd known you all my life.
And that night, when you dragged me semi-comatose out of that sleezy hovel and you pushed me against the fisherman's wall, taking me roughly from behind; well I knew I was yours...forever.
So forceful, so you.
How are you nowadays my old friend?
I miss those tender moments we had together; me asking whether I could s*ck you off; you dismissing my pleas to please with your distant, all knowing stare into the distance.
Oh how I miss those magic moments between us, unfortunately lost forever in the passage of time.

Absolutely hilarious!!
Love it.
More, More, More.
You read so stupid. So ignorant.
But SO adorable...tag teaming together like that.
Sweaty bodies slapping together in solidarity...
xx
Anyway I digress; bearing in mind this is a GKP forum, what's your view on the Company position right now, or is this just a platform for your Russian propaganda?

Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, a place 147king and truthsayer clearly don't inhabit, there's a few things holding the sp back from its natural trajectory right now:-
1) Reliance on regular payments;
2) Contractual disputes with the ICG and the Supreme Court intervention;
3) Self funding FDP approvals from the MNR to proceed to 75k bopd (at least).
They're in no particular order, but they're all linked.
Otherwise I reckon we'd be in very different sp territory right now. And without those resolutions, it's hard yards for JH.
Incidentally, that payment issue isn't going away so it shouldn't be discounted or ignored.
Our last payment was in early January; no Feb payment; the Supreme Court decision mid Feb; and nothing since.
The chronology, as ever, is important.
What should be ignored is any suggestion that GKP can continue to redistrubute capital to shareholders unless they can rely on future payments from the KRG.
And without that reliance there is no positive way forward.
Negotiations, whether they be between the KRG and the ICG, or the MNR and GKP, can get very edgy from time to time...that's why the sp is not responding in accordance with significant structural Global oil price realignments.

"There is a whiff of Munich in the air".
Ben Wallace (UK Defence Secretary) eleven days ago. How true.
He was referencing WW11 appeasement failures by Neville Chamberlain, Europe and the League Of Nations when Hitler lied about his true European ambitions.
'Peace for our Time'...what a joke.
The League Of Nations and then the United Nations have only ever failed to understand...group solidarity only works if you act decisively, early and in concert. With 193 members, how can the UN ever act in a decisive, early and concerted way?
It's impotent anyway, as long as Russia and China have permanent seats on the Security Council.
As for NATO, they have repeatedly refused Ukraine's requests to be included in their 'Club' after the breakaway revolution and are now reaping the rewards of their temerity/fear of poking the Russian Bear.
Now Ukrainians have been left to feel the pain alone, although in fairness they've got Germany's 5000 helmets to protect them!!!
Putin smells the weakness and division of the West from the Kremlin. And he may be attempting to redraw the map of European influence as a consequence.
BB's right quoting Hegel; history teaches us very little about future behaviour. We seem to perpetuate the same behaviour, time and time again. That's the real lesson.
In this case the real question goes to Putin's real ambitions and, more importantly, what we in the West are prepared to do about Him.
Apart from tagging his aggression with economic sanctions, something he clearly thinks is worth the cost.
Georgia's next door and that's not in NATO either; how long are we going to put up with this naked attempt to redraw the European Map and then rewrite European history?
Irritating Oik. He's damaging my portfolio!!!

Hey Nobull,
'Straycat, I'm long' - posted 17/2;
'Straycat, I've never had any connection with this company prior to April 2020' - posted 18/2.
Let's leave that for now.
Generally are buybacks an intrinsic problem because of previous BoD misjudgments?
No, surely not. Otherwise no serious companies would engage in them.
Are they in our best interests?
Depends on your point of view. Opulentia has a dividend perspective, I have a mixed dividend share buyback(for cancellation) view of the world. FDP capex notwithstanding.
What is your issue? If you bought in 2020 then you are DEFINITELY IN THE MONEY.
JH is clearly acting in the best interests of his shareholders; his judgment of how best to achieve that will be his legacy.
For now I'm in his camp because I reckon he knows what's at stake.
In the end this share is about belief in the future, not the past.
I'm a believer, God help me...and I stress, only for now.

Nobull,
Why are you using discounted cash flow analysis to completely colour and influence your view of share buybacks in the specific case of GKP this year, i.e.2022?
Forget about economic theory.
What does your cash flow modelling look like for GKP in 2022?
And how would you deal with the massive cash flow surplus without FDP approvals and the consequent capex re-investments that would follow?
All dividends then?
Or shrinking the capital base via buybacks for cancellation (+dividends).
Or what?
You've really got to stop looking behind you at the past and attend to the present.
Because its really positive for the Company right now.

The idea of the dividend and buyback construct was inspired at a time of major reconstructive renaissance.
2018 revenues and profits at unprecedented levels ($180m and $80m respectively) following the reconstructive pain.
Nobody's arguing that.
The big issue is whether it was deployed in the best interests of the shareholders or the best interests of the Board.
Why would you ask for and obtain shareholder approval for a ca. 20m share buyback to treasury to accommodate notional employee share option commitments, when in fact only 1m were required at the time?
The phrase 'accretive value' was later interposed in the RNS explanations for buyback market interventions.
The whole thing morphed over the buyback period from a company employee need to purported shareholder benefit.
Thankfully Lansdowne and others saw it for what it was and dealt with it via the Boardroom reappointment mechanism.
Not a great look though, is it?

All IMO/DYOR

PUTUP,
Do I read into your post that you have now understood the absurdity of the last buyback and its consequences on shareholder trust?

Nobull,
That is a top post demonstrating the anxst of all LTHs here...bit extreme, but I get your worries.
I think you might be blinded by your own light though.
If you revisit the fundamentals of the business right now, and forget/ignore/blot out your previous experience with GKP and I reckon you can, then this year is a very big year for GKP, one which you should embrace imo.
Buybacks can definitely help the cause if they're orchestrated with other initiatives...JH has to develop the asset base and/or develop the shareholder base this year.
He'll never be in a better position.