Member Info for stokey12

Gadams - In respect of yur 08.38 post you are right the license fee givien in the IPO document was 20%. The Edison research note used the figure of 10%. I used it on the basis that as Peel appears to be shouldering some of the costs and heing with the finance. Also the pre existing relationship with W2T a discounted license fee may be given. Also the valuation was meant to be a worse case scenario so I deliberately used the lowest figures.

Piltick - You are right I took the wrong figure.

Tatty99 - What I found more interesting is that since the agreement in principle for W2T to be acquired was signed an additional 16,060 shares where allotted. we do not know the circumstances of the allottment but I find it strange to say the least that having agreed to being taken over in an all share offer additional shares were allotted.

Flow77 - In relation to your 07.13 post in my 06.02 the line 'So, for 11sites with one DMG unit on each site you would get annual revenues of 29,629,600. ' Should have read 'So for 11 sites with one DMG unit on each site you would get annual licene fee revenues of 29,629.600.' For a single site the license fee revenue would be 269,360 for a vaulation of 2,693,600.

Flow77 - In respect of your 06.24 post yes they would as you see in my example the license fee is shown as a percentage of the revenues. The revenues would go to Peel/W2T.

Flow77 - In relation to your 21.38 post of yesterday there are a number of variables which would affect a proper valuation of Powerhouse. As an illustration a worse case scenario valuation based on a 35tpd DMG power only unit operational for 350 days a year works out something like this. For this illustration I am assuming that the W2T acquisition does not go ahead but Protos and the other 10 sites are built with PHE receiving just the license fee. Fees for additional services cancel out the effect of having to deduct the operational expenses before calculating the license fee which is 10% instead of the normal 20%. I am also going to assume that PHE never get anymore customers. I should say if there was any chance of this scenario actually happening, I would bail out.
Gate Fee 35 x 80 = 2,800 a day
Power 81.6 x 60 = 4,896 a day
Total 7,696 a day
Annual revenue 2,693,600
License fee @10% 269,360

So, for 11sites with one DMG unit on each site you would get annual revenues of 29,629,600. The average P/E ratio for energy from waste companies appears to be around 10 so I will use this figure although a higher P/E ratio may be applied as PHE would be a high margin company. This would give a valuation of £296,296,000.

Can somebody check my maths and tell me if they agree. As I said this is a worse case scenario.

Kenny100 - In respect to your 17.40 post I found it interesting and have bookmarked the page. I note that the average is only 56% buy.

Manabouttown - If you noticed I said internal or external to PHE. That was to include both news that directly relates to PHE but also things in the wider economy. So it maybe that increased confidence following the general election result is in part responsible for the increase in the share price. In addition the general increase in concern about the climate may be feeding into looking at companies that are deivering solutions to the climate problems.

Also while I have no knowledge of anything that may be happening in the background it is not outside the realm of possibility that something is going on in the background and people are quietly building a position in anticipation. Surely you are not saying that DR is sitting on hs thumbs waiting for Protos to be resolved before doing anything about other prospects.

Manabouttown - In relation to your 08.42 post How do you know what the market thinks of the offer you are makng an assumption based on nothing more than an ncreasing share price. With all due respect the rise in the share price does not tell us anything. If I recall correctly the initial market reaction when the RNS first came out was negative. The share price dropped before recovering the following days. If as you say and I do tend to agree the market has priced in the acquisition there is a possibility that something else fuelling the increase in the share price. This could be something internal or external to PHE.

I will make my own mind up based on the explanation provided by the Board and any other information I choose to take into account.

Manabouttown - In relation to your 23.43 post of yesterday with respect it is you that is in error. You appear to be putting two separate questions together and assuming that if the deal has merit then the price is justified. A lot of people on this board can see the merit of the proposal but applying normal valuation principles cannot see the justification for the price. The forthcoming shareholder circular has to provide justification for the price or run the risk of a negative vote on the proposal.

Sharesport it is dated 6 NovemberI have just checked and it is there it says New Hydrogen Ready System. In my post I was suggesting that PHE in the future want to sell hydrogen to Ceres for thier system not that PHE areconsidering doing it now.

I have just seen this RNS on the Ceres Power Board https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CWR/new-hydrogen-ready-system-bl6shcj8ceu51tk.html. An interesting development. I wonder if down the line when the DMG has been proven Ceres would get some of its hydrogen requirement from a DMG system?

On January 26 2018 the share price was 0.7p it looks like this will be tested either today or Monday.

Jimiam - Can you please stop your blatant ramping you are getting lose to me reporting you.

BumbleB - Here is the story from the Yorkshire Post https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/more-than-70m-of-government-money-to-be-put-towards-regenerating-former-ssi-steelworks-site-1-10193075 It is just don the road from the Sirius Minerals mine I believe. It looks like a DMG site might fit in but e will have to wait for the masterplan.

Manabouttown - In relation to your 11.32 post my 11.13 post was in response to an earlier sincedeleted post by Jimiam who has suggested that there will be a RNS on Monday covering an investor and planning. If PHE would want to have the EGM by the end of this month then the Shareholder Circular and Notice of the EGM did not go out next week.

Judging by the increase in the share price the markt seems to be expecting some news soon. I am not sure what it will be about PHE seems to be getting good at left field announcement so it may be something to catch us by surprise.

Rooky - Do you have a link to the announcement.

Jimiam - There will be no news on planning on Monday unless it is to say that the application will be heard on the 23 January which is not worth an RNS. The next planning committee meeting is not until 23 so there will be no news before then,

BumbleB - In relation to your 07.22 post in that case I think that the RNS was issued as a result of a press release by W2T as PHE does not appear to normally issue an RNS on ongoing discussion only when they have concluded with an agreement.

Jimiam - Any news that can affect the share price cannot be released while the market is open so any RNS will have to be released before 8am or after 4.30pm