Member Info for stokey12

Chrisatrdg ref 11.42 post Raba is showing on the Belfast harbour website as berthed in OQ which is I believe the commissioning quay so is part of the H&W Belfast facilities. Interestingly it has come all the way from New Orleans so that is the second vessel after Dover Spirit from North America.

In relation to the general meeting I am planning to attend and I am presently minded to abstain. However, depending on what I hear at the meeting that may change.

oldtramp ref 16.38 post I have just tried that link but it could not be displayed for some reason. I see that the W.B.Yeats is due to depart tomorrow afternoon.

LSE03 ref 14.40 post thanks for this an interesting read. Not sure how this would fit with the local content rules as while locally based are the owners local. When built the Stornoway Deep Water Terminal would possibly be a direct contractor. There will of note be a direct link from the Stornoway Deep Water Terminal and H &W Arnish. Also I think Arnishwill actually be operational first.

drango ref 12.11 post do you have a link to the story about this.

Just seen this on twitter https://www.linkedin.com/posts/david-poledn%C3%ADk-01ba9bb8_work-3000bar-entraco-ugcPost-6868812017768116225--Dk7 looks like HARL might be interested in purchasing one.

Who is going to the general meeting net week? I have not been to a HARL general meeting before so am wondering how long are they going to allow questions to go on for before putting matters to vote. I know during investor presentations they normally let questions go on for a while but this may be different.

There are three announcements which are expected this month. The new National Shipbuilding Strategy, The winner of the tender for drydockings of the Queen Elizabeth Class of Carriers and the winner of the tender for the new National Flagship. All of these announcements will likely to be made within the next two weeks. The reason being that the House will rise for the Christmas Recess on the 16 December so they should be made by then. Of course the government could make the announcement during the recess but that would probably cause a political storm.

oldtramp ref 18.46 post Do not believe so but the document did not include the regulations themselves.

oldtramp ref 18.04 post the document is a regulatory impact assessment on a set of regulations that does not impact IM as it is not a pipeline between Northern Ireland and a third country or a gas storage site in Northern Ireland territorial waters.

oldtramp ref 17.14 post thanks for this is Belfast in East Antrim?

Does anyone live near H&W Belfast who thinks that it might make sense for the local authority to apply for Belfast Harbour to become a Freeport. We would need to get a local politician to get the ball rolling on making an application. As I am in London I cannot make the approach willing to help but need somebody more local to suggest the idea to either the local MP or Mayor. HARL is likely to benefit if Belfast Harbour was to become a freeport.

Just noticed that the Bulker Bee 20 which is a Bulk Carrier will shift to SRQ on 2 December and will remain there until 7 December. This is the second Bulk Carrier to stay in Belfast for more than a day.

CharlieSays ref 16.42 post strictly speaking you cannot have a debate at PMQs. To get around this you would need four or five MPs to ask the same question. This allows each MP to then ask a question. What would not be permitted is a speech. How much leeway you will get in getting to your question is up to Mr Speaker.

Lottie 123 ref 14.14 and 14.21 posts I presume that those posts were not aimed at me. As I have stated my view is that we need to detach the possible future prospects of HARL from the current failings of the management. One thing that I believe needs urgent addressing is the failure of the company to follow best practice and have more NEDs than Executive Directors. I am not sure what your view is but I am inclined to the view that HARL needs at least two more NEDs. This would give two NEDs for each Executive Director. I am not a fan of having just the bare minimum.

roly12 ref 12.02 post I do not think that you made the wrong investment decision as the fundamentals of the company and it's prospects remain the same. What has possibly changed is the perception among some investors of the competence and integrity of the management. I note we did not have an RNS this morning clarifying the issue all we got was a statement issued from the H&W yesterday. This meant that few people were likely to have seen it than saw the RNS.

Iamsailing ref 09.39 post I think you meant to say cash breakeven in 2021. The other metric is whether it will have a turnover of £30m over the 17 months period to December 2021. Taking the second one first I remain confident that this will be met. I say this for the reasons I have stated before which are unchanged by last week's placing. The interim results showed turnover for the 12 months to July 2021 at circa £10m. Since then we have had the Saipem 1 contract payments under that in 2021 are circa £15m. In addition we have had a number of vessels into both Belfast and Appledore. Taking the number and in some cases the complexity of the work into account I would expect earnings from these repairs to exceed the £5m needed to meet this metric. Turning to the first breakeven by years end you state 'Will HARL be cash breakeven for 2022 as a whole? Not a snowflakes chance in hell.' I note that in its note last week Cenkos casts doubt on whether HARL will breakeven in the 2021 financial year. This would seem to support what you say. Due to the lack of visibility of the nature of the ship repair work being undertaken or due to be undertaken I am undecided as to whether this metric will be met.

Iamsailing ref 08.31 post You misunderstood my 07.43 post HARL is not building the Deep Water Terminal the local authority is as part of their Masterplan for the area. There will be no cost to HARL it will only be a beneficiary of the project. On the point of the timescale for this I believe that the Deep Water Terminal is due for completion in 2023.

Iamsailing ref 21.02 post I see where are difference is I am looking at the potential to increase earnings over the next three years. My view based on all relevant information is that there is a likelihood of increasing earnings. The basis for this are firstly, At Arnish the local plan involves the development of a Deep Water Terminal near the site. As part of these plans a new link road will be built linking the Arnish site to the Deep Water Terminal. This would facilitate the fabricating of parts for the offshore wind farms in the area. Approval for this development has already been given and it should be in place within the next three years. Secondly, both Appledore and Methil are also near a number of Offshore Wind Farm developments. Accordingly, there is a good chance in view of both the local content rules and the fabricating footprint that HARL has for HARL to secure a reasonable proportion of the fabricating work in relation to the wind farm developments. On the shipbuilding site both BAB and BAe are close to or at capacity so I would expect HARL to acquire either on its own or in partnership with others some of the pipeline of work. I would therefore concur with the estimate of a potential of around £800m of work over the next five years. As such at this stage I would argue that the book value per share is a valid basis of valuation.

The difficulty I have with your valuation is as you have not provided any information that can be independently and objectively verified it is impossible to confirm. The FTSERussell information is based on verifiable information.

Looking at the Belfast Harbour website I notice that on Wednesday two bulk carriers are making brief visits to H&W Belfast. If I am reading the traffic expected page correctly they are discharging their load before shifting to the commissioning quay and the ship repair quay. I find the berthing in the commissioning quay the most interesting as until recently it has not been used that often. Does anyone have any clues as to what might be happening?

Iamsailing ref 23.46 post I note you say 'We spent some time valuing the equity of HARL' assuming you were not using the royal we there can you clarify who the 'we' is in that sentence. On a more important point you give a negative value for HARL of -£46.5m can you clarify how you came to that figure. You say that you used a probability weighted value of £25m to reach this figure but you have not said how you arrived at this probability weighted value either.

I downloaded a valuation from FTSERussell as it is the most independent valuation I am able to get and was dated November 26 so would reflect the placing. It gave a book value per share of 0.32 and on that basis the value for HARL would be a positive £39m. The same report gave HARL a market value of £12m. Both basis of valuations which are objective are higher than your valuation.